A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

Monier, Erwan; Gao, Xiang; Scott, J.W.; Sokolov, Andrei P.; Schlosser, C. Adam

doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1112-5

Cited by 62 publications

(72 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…Since IGSM-CAM only considers one GCM, a pattern-scaling approach was also used to capture a wider range of regional patterns of change, especially for precipitation (see Monier et al 2014, this issue, for methodological details). Pattern scaling generally enables the development of projections of mean climate conditions from a range of GCMs without developing new model runs.…”

Section: Emission Scenarios and Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As Online Resource 9 describes in detail for a single modeled cell, the IGSM-CAM method simulates realistic natural variability at the global and regional levels, as well as future changes in natural variability (changes in magnitude and frequency) (see Monier et al 2014, this issue, for more detail). Compared to other GCMs, the IGSM-CAM projects a "wetter" future for most of the contiguous U.S., in addition to the underlying pattern of warming, which produces conditions that are generally more favorable to vegetation growth compared to today.…”

Section: Future Changes In Area Burnedmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States

et al. 2014

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This paper develops and applies methods to quantify and monetize projected impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and areas burned by wildfires in the contiguous United States under scenarios with and without global greenhouse gas mitigation. The MC1 dynamic global vegetation model is used to develop physical impact projections using three climate models that project a range of future conditions. We also investigate the sensitivity of future climates to different initial conditions of the climate model. Our analysis reveals that mitigation, where global radiative forcing is stabilized at 3.7 W/m 2 in 2100, would consistently reduce areas burned from 2001 to 2100 by tens of millions of hectares. Monetized, these impacts are equivalent to potentially avoiding billions of dollars (discounted) in wildfire response costs. Impacts to terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage are less uniform, but changes are on the order of billions of tons over this time period. The equivalent social value of these Climatic Change (2015) The magnitude of these results highlights their importance when evaluating climate policy options. However, our results also show national outcomes are driven by a few regions and results are not uniform across regions, time periods, or models. Differences in the results based on the modeling approach and across initializing conditions also raise important questions about how variability in projected climates is accounted for, especially when considering impacts where extreme or threshold conditions are important.

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Section: Emission Scenarios and Climate Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Future Changes In Area Burnedmentioning

confidence: 99%

Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States

et al. 2014

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“…Results are presented for the five-member ensemble means in order to better extract any long-term signal from the year-to-year variability and provide more robust results. Monier et al (2013a) provides an overview of the projected changes in mean temperature and precipitation over the US, along with an analysis of the contributions of various sources of uncertainty. Monier et al (2013a) shows that the choice of the climate model has a large impact on the range and patterns of precipitation changes, much less so for changes in temperature.…”

Section: Description Of the Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Monier et al (2013a) provides an overview of the projected changes in mean temperature and precipitation over the US, along with an analysis of the contributions of various sources of uncertainty. Monier et al (2013a) shows that the choice of the climate model has a large impact on the range and patterns of precipitation changes, much less so for changes in temperature. As a result, a limitation of this study is that we only use one atmospheric model.…”

Section: Description Of the Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Monier

Gao

2014

Climatic Change

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In this study, we analyze changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over the US in a 60-member ensemble simulation of the 21st century with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM). Four values of climate sensitivity, three emissions scenarios and five initial conditions are considered. The results show a general intensification and an increase in the frequency of extreme hot temperatures and extreme precipitation events over most of the US. Extreme cold temperatures are projected to decrease in intensity and frequency, especially over the northern parts of the US. This study displays a wide range of future changes in extreme events in the US, even simulated by a single climate model. Results clearly show that the choice of policy is the largest source of uncertainty in the magnitude of the changes. The impact of the climate sensitivity is largest for the unconstrained emissions scenario and the implementation of a stabilization scenario drastically reduces the changes in extremes, even for the highest climate sensitivity considered. Finally, simulations with different initial conditions show conspicuously different patterns and magnitudes of changes in extreme events, underlining the role of natural variability in projections of changes in extreme events.

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“…The various Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports also provide valuable discussion on this issue (IPCC 2015). Monier et al (2015) present a new framework to assess climate uncertainty which is close to ours. Their results show that the largest uncertainty in terms of temperature comes from climate policy.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 62%

Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices

Gaudard

Gabbi²,

Bauder³

et al. 2016

Water Resour Manage

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Hydropower represents the world's largest renewable energy source. As a flexible technology, it enhances reliability and security of the electricity system. However, climate change and market liberalization may hinder investment due to the evolution of water runoffs and electricity prices. Both alter expected revenue and bring uncertainty. It increases risk and deters investment. Our research assesses how climate change and market fluctuation affect annual revenue. But this paper focuses on the uncertainty, rather than on forecasting. This transdisciplinary topic is investigated by means of a mixed method, i.e. both quantitative and qualitative. The quantitative approach uses established models in natural sciences and economics. The uncertainty is accounted for by applying various scenarios and various datasets coming from different models. Based on those results, uncertainty is discussed through an analysis discerning three dimensions of uncertainty. Uncertainty analysis requires the assessment of a large panel of models and data sets. It is therefore rarely carried out. The originality of the paper also lies on the combination of quantitative established models with a qualitative analysis. The results surprisingly show that the greenhouse gas scenarios may in fact represent a low source of uncertainty, unlike electricity prices. Like forecasting, the main uncertainties are actually case study related and depend on the investigated variables. It is also shown that the nature of uncertainty evolves. Runoff uncertainty goes from variability, i.e. inherent randomness, to epistemic, i.e. limitation of science. The reverse situation occurs with the electricity price. The implications for scientists and policy makers are discussed.

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A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

Cited by 62 publications

References 34 publications

Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States

Quantifying and monetizing potential climate change policy impacts on terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage and wildfires in the United States

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Long-term Uncertainty of Hydropower Revenue Due to Climate Change and Electricity Prices

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