Quantifying demand for built-up area – a comparison of approaches and application to regions with stagnating population

Examining lag effects between industrial land development and regional economic changes: The Netherlands experience

“…GVA, GDP) to forecast future land demand. The examples include Reginster and Rounsevell [ 41 ], Rounsevell et al [ 14 ], Hoymann [ 13 ], and Batista e Silva et al [ 10 ] among others.…”

“…These models are based on different statistical and modelling techniques including econometric regressions and other statistical measures (see Batista e Silva et al [ 10 ] for a review), system dynamics [ 11 ] and agent-based modelling [ 12 ]. Particularly, the techniques of econometric regressions [ 13 ; 14 ] and other statistical measures including estimations of socio-economic indicators [ 15 ], real property value forecasts [ 16 ], trend extrapolation and density measures [ 10 , 13 ] are often used in many countries to make forecasts for the demand of industrial and commercial sites. This is crucial for the countries where there is high economic growth and development with a limited supply of land resources [ 17 , 18 ].…”

“…The studies by Hoymann [ 13 ], and Reginster and Rounsevell [ 41 ] utilised regression models to estimate demand for urban area. The former study compared results of the residential demand predictions with the observed data through application of different statistical approaches.…”

“…Despite estimations of significant coefficients for the selected predictors of urban land use, none of their regressions considered development lags concerning the urban land demand. Among few studies of forecasting work of the industrial land, Batista e Silva et al [ 10 ] estimated demand for industrial and commercial land for the EU countries by using a number of statistical approaches and compared prediction results with the observed data following the research by Hoymann [ 13 ]. However, the study did not consider lag effects of the economic development on the growth of industrial and commercial land use in their studied countries.…”

Regional Variations of Land-Use Development and Land-Use/Cover Change Dynamics: A Case Study of Turkey

“…Therefore, urban development is expected to be related, not only to the socio-economic growth performance of the regions, but also to supply restrictions. This is apparent from the empirical literature demonstrating that real estate stock, population and employment are strongly correlated over cities and regions [79][80][81]. In general, regions with more population living in cities can be expected to have more urban land cover; regions with more economic income can be expected to have more land cover; and the regions with an abundance of arable land can be expected to have more urban land cover [82].…”