Abstract. The observed increase of direct flood damage over the last decades may be caused by changes in the meteorological drivers of floods, or by changing land-use patterns and socio-economic developments. It is still widely unknown to which extent these factors will contribute to future flood risk changes.We survey the change of flood risk in terms of expected annual damage for residential buildings in the lower part of the Mulde River basin (Vereinigte Mulde) between 1990 and 2020 in 10-yr time steps based on measurements and model projections. For this purpose we consider the complete risk chain from climate impact via hydrological and hydraulic modelling to damage and risk estimation. We analyse what drives the changes in flood risk and quantify the contributions of these drivers: flood hazard change due to climate change, land-use change and changes in building values.

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In this paper a scenario study of the residential land-use development in the Elbe River Basin is presented. The study uses an approach that empirically determines suitability maps for the application within a land-use-change model. Recent urbanisation processes are explained in the first step and are used in simulations of future land use in the second step. Binomial logistic regression analysis is applied in an analysis of the location characteristics influencing residential land-use change. Estimation results are adapted and used as weights in the calculation of suitability maps, which consist of the location characteristics of residential land-use change. Including policy maps in suitability calculations allows important spatial restrictions to be accounted for and enables the impact of spatial planning on the allocation of residential developments to be analysed. The suitability maps are further applied to the Land Use Scanner model to simulate spatially explicit residential land-use developments in the Elbe River Basin. Results of this study show that empirically determined suitability maps used in models of land-use change can contribute to the operational use of scenario studies in political discussion support. Considerable differences in applied policy maps in terms of their contribution to the sustainable development of residential and use are discussed.

Decision-makers in the fields of urban and regional planning in Germany face new challenges. High rates of urban sprawl need to be reduced by increased inner-urban development while settlements have to adapt to climate change and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time.In this study, we analyze conflicts in the management of urban areas and develop integrated sustainable land use strategies for Germany. The spatial explicit land use change model Land Use Scanner is used to simulate alternative scenarios of land use change for Germany for 2030. A multi-criteria analysis is set up based on these scenarios and based on a set of indicators. They are used to measure whether the mitigation and adaptation objectives can be achieved and to uncover conflicts between these aims. The results show that the built-up and transport area development can be influenced both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Strengthening the inner-urban development is particularly effective in terms of reducing built-up and transport area development. It is possible to reduce built-up and transport area development to approximately 30 ha per day in 2030, which matches the sustainability objective of the German Federal Government for the year 2020. In the case of adaptation to climate change, the inclusion of extreme flood events in the context of spatial planning requirements may contribute to a reduction of the damage potential.

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