Drivers of flood risk change in residential areas

Elmer, F.; Hoymann, Jana; Düthmann, D.; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Kreibich, Heidi

doi:10.5194/nhess-12-1641-2012

Cited by 93 publications

(77 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…However, the relative contributions of both factors are similar. Elmer et al (2012) obtained opposite results in a German catchment. Based on the study of the drivers of flood risk change in residential areas between 1990 and 2020, they concluded that the expansion of residential areas would be the main driver of flood risk evolution in this region.…”

Section: Relative Contribution Of Climate Change and Urbanizationmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…First, the wet climate scenario considered here is relatively extreme, and the time horizon (2100) is more distant than those used in the two previous studies. As emphasized by Elmer et al (2012), the climate influence could be more decisive in the long term. Second, the land use characteristics of the three studied areas are very different: the study area in the present study is much more urbanized than those analysed by Elmer et al (2012) and Poussin et al (2012).…”

Section: Relative Contribution Of Climate Change and Urbanizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For some European rivers, these two factors were considered in flood damage assessments conducted for a relatively short term future (2030in De Roo et al, 2003te Linde et al, 2011 andPoussin et al, 2012;2020in Elmer et al, 2012. In contrast, very few studies have taken them into consideration for a longer term future (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region

Beckers

Dewals²,

Erpicum³

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Managing flood risk in Europe is a critical issue because climate change is expected to increase flood hazard in many european countries. Beside climate change, land use evolution is also a key factor influencing future flood risk. The core contribution of this paper is a new methodology to model residential land use evolution. Based on two climate scenarios ("dry" and "wet"), the method is applied to study the evolution of flood damage by 2100 along the river Meuse. Nine urbanization scenarios were developed: three of them assume a "current trend" land use evolution, leading to a significant urban sprawl, while six others assume a dense urban development, characterized by a higher density and a higher diversity of urban functions in the urbanized areas. Using damage curves, the damage estimation was performed by combining inundation maps for the present and future 100 yr flood with present and future land use maps and specific prices. According to the dry scenario, the flood discharge is expected not to increase. In this case, land use changes increase flood damages by 1-40 %, to C 334-462 million in 2100. In the wet scenario, the relative increase in flood damage is 540-630 %, corresponding to total damages of C 2.1-2.4 billion. In this extreme scenario, the influence of climate on the overall damage is 3-8 times higher than the effect of land use change. However, for seven municipalities along the river Meuse, these two factors have a comparable influence. Consequently, in the "wet" scenario and at the level of the whole Meuse valley in the Walloon region, careful spatial planning would reduce the increase in flood damage by no more than 11-23 %; but, at the level of several municipalities, more sustainable spatial planning would reduce future flood damage to a much greater degree.

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Section: Relative Contribution Of Climate Change and Urbanizationmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Relative Contribution Of Climate Change and Urbanizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region

Beckers

Dewals²,

Erpicum³

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…This increase can be attributed to socio-economic factors, including settlement growth near rivers and the rise in the concentration of values in these areas (Evans et al 2004;Barredo 2009;Munich Re 2013), which has been confirmed in numerous empirical analyses. A German study of a Mulde sub-catchment, for instance, showed that land-use change in the form of urban sprawl is a key driver of flood risk (Elmer et al 2012). Similarly, a study on the development of flood exposure in the Netherlands found that socio-economic change and the increase in urban area in flood-prone zones have led to an exponential increase in potential flood damage during the twentieth century (de Moel et al 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood risk, climate change and settlement development: a micro-scale assessment of Austrian municipalities

et al. 2016

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This paper analyses the influence of climate change and land development on future flood risk for selected Austrian flood-prone municipalities. As part of an anticipatory micro-scale risk assessment we simulated four different inundation scenarios for current and future 100-and 300-year floods (which included a climate change allowance), developed scenarios of future settlement growth in floodplains and evaluated changes in flood damage potentials and flood risk until the year 2030. Findings show that both climate change and settlement development significantly increase future levels of flood risk. However, the respective impacts vary strongly across the different cases. The analysis indicates that local conditions, such as the topography of the floodplain, the spatial allocation of vulnerable land uses or the type of land development (e.g. residential, commercial or industrial) in the floodplain are the key determinants of the respective effects of climate change and land development on future levels of flood risk. The case study analysis highlights the general need for a more comprehensive consideration of the local determinants of flood risk in order to increase the effectiveness of an adaptive management of flood risk dynamics.

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“…Although the occurrence probability and intensity of certain extreme weather events is highly uncertain, they appear with serious damage potential or health risks [4]. Beyond others increased surface runoff due to surface sealing in urban areas leads to massive inundation and damage [5]. Urbanized areas have historically often developed close to rivers and are thus located in flood prone areas and affected by floods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Growth for Germany Including Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

Hoymann¹,

Goetzke

2016

IJGI

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Decision-makers in the fields of urban and regional planning in Germany face new challenges. High rates of urban sprawl need to be reduced by increased inner-urban development while settlements have to adapt to climate change and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time.In this study, we analyze conflicts in the management of urban areas and develop integrated sustainable land use strategies for Germany. The spatial explicit land use change model Land Use Scanner is used to simulate alternative scenarios of land use change for Germany for 2030. A multi-criteria analysis is set up based on these scenarios and based on a set of indicators. They are used to measure whether the mitigation and adaptation objectives can be achieved and to uncover conflicts between these aims. The results show that the built-up and transport area development can be influenced both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Strengthening the inner-urban development is particularly effective in terms of reducing built-up and transport area development. It is possible to reduce built-up and transport area development to approximately 30 ha per day in 2030, which matches the sustainability objective of the German Federal Government for the year 2020. In the case of adaptation to climate change, the inclusion of extreme flood events in the context of spatial planning requirements may contribute to a reduction of the damage potential.

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Drivers of flood risk change in residential areas

Cited by 93 publications

References 43 publications

Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region

Contribution of land use changes to future flood damage along the river Meuse in the Walloon region

Flood risk, climate change and settlement development: a micro-scale assessment of Austrian municipalities

Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Growth for Germany Including Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

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