Quantifying Flood Risks in the Netherlands

Jongejan, Ruben; Maaskant, B.

doi:10.1111/risa.12285

Cited by 39 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…Often, such flood risk analyses are carried out in order to evaluate local measures or to assess the economically optimal flood protection standard of a location or a small area [1,2]. However, in river areas with a flood protection infrastructure in place, the failure probabilities of different locations are often interrelated.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrodynamic system behaviour: its analysis and implications for flood risk management

et al. 2016

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Abstract.Knowledge on the different components of flood risk has much improved over the last decades, but research which fully takes into account not only the interactions between those components but also between different areas in a catchment or delta is still rare. Integrated analyses EDVHG RQ D FRPSOHWH V\VWHP ¶V DSSURDFK DW VXIILFLHQWO\ large scale will improve our understanding of how flood risk systems with flood protection infrastructure in place behave under extreme conditions, it may help to develop sensible long-term strategies, and allows us to better prepare for flood events of all magnitudes. To illustrate the relevance of a hydrodynamic system ¶s approach for flood risk management we analyse the effect of defence breaches on flood risks elsewhere along the lower Rhine River and discuss the use of this knowledge for flood risk management.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrodynamic system behaviour: its analysis and implications for flood risk management

et al. 2016

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“…Kwak et al quantified these spatial correlations for the Japanese levee system and explicitly accounted for spatial distribution and correlation. Other researchers selected a "characteristic length" where the levee system is divided into reaches that are considered uncorrelated (e.g., Wolff 2008;Jongejan and Maaskant 2015;VNK 2015).…”

Section: Seismic Threats To Leveesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors and Processes Affecting Levee System Vulnerability

Deverel¹,

Bachand²,

Brandenberg³

et al. 2016

SFEWS

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We appraised factors and processes related to human activities and high water, subsidence, and seismicity. Farming and drainage of peat soils caused subsidence, which contributed to levee internal failures. Subsidence rates decreased with time, but still contributed to levee instability. Modeling changes in seepage and static slope instability suggests an increased probability of failure with decreasing peat thickness. Additional data is needed to assess the spatial and temporal effects of subsidence from peat thinning and deformation. Large-scale, state investment in levee upgrades (> $700 million since the mid-1970s) has increased conformance with applicable standards; however, accounts conflict about corresponding reductions in the number of failures.Modeling and history suggest that projected increases in high-flow frequency associated with climate change will increase the rate of levee failures. Quantifying this increased threat requires further research. A reappraisal of seismic threats resulted in updated ground motion estimates for multiple faults and earthquake-occurrence frequencies. Estimated ground motions are large enough to induce failure. The immediate seismic threat, liquefaction, is the sudden loss of strength from an increase in the pressure of the pore fluid and the corresponding loss of inter-particle contact forces. However, levees damaged during an earthquake that do not immediately fail may eventually breach. Key sources of uncertainty include occurrence frequencies and magnitudes, localized ground motions, and data for liquefaction potential.Estimates of the consequences of future levee failure range up to multiple billions of dollars. Analysis of future risks will benefit from improved description of levee upgrades and strength as well as consideration of subsidence, the effects of climate change, and earthquake threats. Levee habitat ecosystem benefits in this highly altered system are few. Better recognition and coordination is needed among the creation of high-value habitat, levee needs, and costs and benefits of levee improvements and breaches.

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“…A risk-based approach is applied in the flood management in the Netherlands Jongejan and Maaskant 2015) and several other countries around the world, such as the UK (Hall et al 2003), USA (IPET 2009) and China (Jiabi et al 2013). The approach considers return periods of the hazard as well as their resulting damage and could offer some value to coastal risk managers in Japan.…”

Section: Generalmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The framework is derived from the flood risk assessment framework used in the Netherlands Jongejan and Maaskant 2015;Jonkman and Schweckendiek 2015) and other countries for coastal and riverine flooding. The analyses carried out in this present research focus on the direct damage to buildings and potential loss of life, which are the most significant types of consequences.…”

Section: Generalmentioning

confidence: 99%

A method for tsunami risk assessment: a case study for Kamakura, Japan

et al. 2017

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This paper presents a methodology for tsunami risk assessment, which was applied to a case study in Kamakura, Japan. This methodology was developed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk-reducing system against such hazards, also aiming to demonstrate that a risk assessment is possible for these episodic events. The tsunami risk assessment follows these general steps: (1) determination of the probability of flooding, (2) calculation of flood scenarios, (3) assessment of the consequences and (4) integration into a risk number or graph. The probability of flooding was approximated based on the data provided by local institutes, and the flood scenarios were modeled in 1D using the Simulating WAves till SHore model. Results showed that a tsunami in Kamakura can result in thousands of casualties. Interventions such as improvements in evacuation systems, which would directly reduce the number of casualties, would have a large influence in risk reduction. Although this method has its limits and constraints, it illustrates the value it can add to existing tsunami risk management in Japan.

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Quantifying Flood Risks in the Netherlands

Cited by 39 publications

References 19 publications

Hydrodynamic system behaviour: its analysis and implications for flood risk management

Hydrodynamic system behaviour: its analysis and implications for flood risk management

Factors and Processes Affecting Levee System Vulnerability

A method for tsunami risk assessment: a case study for Kamakura, Japan

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