Quantifying Interdependencies in Geyser Eruptions at the Upper Geyser Basin, Yellowstone National Park

Abstract

The Upper Geyser Basin at Yellowstone National Park (Wyoming, USA) harbors the greatest concentration of geysers worldwide. Research suggests that individual geysers are not isolated but rather are hydraulically connected in the subsurface with other geysers and thermal springs. To quantify such connections, we combined techniques from machine learning, causal inference, and dynamical systems to characterize the collective eruptive behavior of a set of 10 geysers over 18 months (April 2007 – September 2008) focusing on geyser‐geyser interactions. Model predictions were up to 15 times more accurate when we sought to predict a geyser's eruption time series based on outflow channel temperatures from the network than based on its own time series alone, suggesting the existence of a complex interconnected subsurface groundwater system. On average, cone‐type geysers had larger impacts on other geysers than did fountain‐type geysers. Similarly, cone‐type geysers were on average more insulated from other geysers. However, substantial unexplained variation remained after considering the cone versus fountain dichotomy. Distance between geysers also affected interactions: nearby geysers had stronger effects on focal geysers than did geysers located farther away. Collectively, results support the hypothesis of geyser interdependence at timescales of 5 min–10 days. Our analyses highlight the existence of quantifiable geyser‐to‐geyser interactions that can be resolved through pairwise and system‐level analyses. These findings emphasize the subsurface interconnectedness of thermal features, provide information relevant to visitor experiences in Yellowstone National Park, and suggest strategies for exploring patterns of interdependence that may exist among other episodic geological phenomena.

Hot spring oases in the periglacial desert as the Last Glacial Maximum refugia for temperate trees in Central Europe

“…The between-site differences in dating can be ascribed to episodic alternation in discharge intensity and silica sinter formation among neighboring aquifers. Such an assumption is consistent with temporal and spatial dynamics observed in modern hydrothermal environments worldwide ( 35 – 37 ), showing that hot spring discharge may be highly episodic with alternating phases of silica sinter formation and destruction and the timescale between discharges can range from centennial to millennial ( 35 ). This implies that, in particular sites, the hot spring discharge and associated silica sinter deposition may have occurred irregularly, interrupted by erosional processes and time gaps between deposition.…”

The Relation Between Decadal Droughts and Eruptions of Steamboat Geyser in Yellowstone National Park, USA

“…There were no regional (Hurwitz et al., 2014) or remote (Husen et al., 2004) earthquakes that were a combination of large enough and close enough that they could have initiated the onset of eruptions. Interaction with adjacent geysers (Fagan et al., 2022) is also ruled out because there are no large active geysers in the vicinity of Steamboat that could impact its activity. It was postulated that transitions from dormant to eruptive periods at Steamboat Geyser may reflect gradual changes in silica precipitation in the reservoir or conduit that affect permeability, water flow, and heat transport (Reed et al., 2021).…”