Quantifying Long-Term Bird Population Responses to Simulated Harvest Plans and Cumulative Effects of Disturbance

Leston, Lionel; Bayne, Erin M.; Dzus, Elston; Sólymos, Péter; Moore, Tom; Andison, David; Cheyne, Dave; Carlson, Matt

doi:10.3389/fevo.2020.00252

Cited by 10 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 60 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…To optimize the future effectiveness of a conservation network, planning frameworks must address the long-term value of individual sites and resilience of the network as a whole to climate change (Hole et al, 2011). In a cumulative effects assessment for northeastern Alberta, olive-sided flycatchers were associated with recently burned forest and were projected to increase slightly in abundance over 50 years under harvesting scenarios that resulted in an overall increase in forest age; however, consistent with our findings, the projected increases were lessened by increased fire frequencies expected as a result of climate change (Leston et al, 2020). As the frequency of fires increases across the western boreal forest, maintaining suitable habitat for olive-sided flycatchers in the southern Peace River region seems possible only by reducing allowable annual cut in the Dawson Creek Timber Supply Area.…”

Section: Cumulative Effects Of Stressors On Availability Of Suitable Habitatsupporting

confidence: 79%

Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

To halt ongoing loss in biodiversity, there is a need for landscape-level management recommendations that address cumulative impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on wildlife habitat. We examined the cumulative effects of logging, roads, land-use change, fire, and bark beetle outbreaks on future habitat for olive-sided flycatcher (Contopus cooperi), a steeply declining aerial insectivorous songbird, in Canada’s western boreal forest. To predict the occurrence of olive-sided flycatcher we developed a suite of habitat suitability models using point count surveys (1997–2011) spatially- and temporally-matched with forest inventory data. Flycatcher occurrence was positively associated with small (∼10 ha) 10- to 20-year-old clearcuts, and with 10–100% tree mortality due to mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, but we found no association with roads or distance to water. We used the parameter estimates from the best-fit habitat suitability models to inform spatially explicit state-and-transition simulation models to project change in habitat availability from 2020 to 2050 under six alternative scenarios (three management × two fire alternatives). The simulation models projected that the cumulative effects of land use conversion, forest harvesting, and fire will reduce the area of olive-sided flycatcher habitat by 16–18% under Business As Usual management scenarios and by 11–13% under scenarios that include protection of 30% of the land base. Scenarios limiting the size of all clearcuts to ≤10 ha resulted in a median habitat loss of 4–6%, but projections were highly variable. Under all three management alternatives, a 50% increase in fire frequency (expected due to climate change) exacerbated habitat loss. The projected losses of habitat in western boreal forest, even with an increase in protected areas, imply that reversing the ongoing population declines of olive-sided flycatcher and other migratory birds will require attention to forest management beyond protected areas. Further work should examine the effects of multiple stressors on the demographic mechanisms driving change in aerial insectivore populations, including stressors on the wintering grounds in South America, and should aim to adapt the design of protected areas and forest management policies to projected climate-driven increases in the size and frequency of wildfires.

show abstract

Section: Cumulative Effects Of Stressors On Availability Of Suitable Habitatsupporting

confidence: 79%

Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…2020, Leston et al . 2020) and to estimate population sizes and distribution of boreal birds (Crosby et al . 2019, Sólymos et al .…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There is therefore a need for a systematic approach to estimating these detection distances for all landbirds, while accounting for variation in environmental conditions and survey types (Stanton et al 2019) (Barker et al 2015) and the QPAD methodology (S ólymos et al 2013) to allow multiple survey types and survey conditions to be accounted for. Additionally, QPAD offsets produced by BAM have been used extensively to adjust survey point count data to account for detectability (Hobson & Kardynal 2019, Zlonis et al 2019, Knaggs et al 2020, Leston et al 2020 and to estimate population sizes and distribution of boreal birds (Crosby et al 2019, Sólymos et al 2020b. Thus, the next frontier is to extend these methods developed by BAM and use the millions of rigorously collected bird observations and covariates (i.e.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Point count offsets for estimating population sizes of north American landbirds

Edwards

Smith

Docherty

et al. 2023

Ibis

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Bird monitoring in North America over several decades has generated many open databases, housing millions of structured and semi‐structured bird observations. These provide the opportunity to estimate bird densities and population sizes, once variation in factors such as underlying field methods, timing, land cover, proximity to roads, and uneven spatial coverage are accounted for. To facilitate integration across databases, we introduce NA‐POPS: Point Count Offsets for Population Sizes of North American Landbirds. NA‐POPS is a large‐scale, multi‐agency project providing an open‐source database of detectability functions for all North American landbirds. These detectability functions allow the integration of data from across disparate survey methods using the QPAD approach, which considers the probability of detection (q) and availability (p) of birds in relation to area (a) and density (d). To date, NA‐POPS has compiled over 7.1 million data points spanning 292 projects from across North America, and produced detectability functions for 338 landbird species. Here, we describe the methods used to curate these data and generate these detectability functions, as well as the open‐access nature of the resulting database.

show abstract

“…One such model is ALCES Online (AO), a user-friendly tool designed to support decision-making by integrating landscape and population simulators. The landscape simulator can track the consequences of a variety of drivers, including mining, forestry, hydroelectric development, settlements, hydrocarbon development, agriculture, transportation networks, fire, and insect outbreaks (e.g., Schneider et al, 2010;Carlson et al, 2015;Chetkiwicz et al, 2017;Leston et al, 2020). The cell-based modelling framework is flexible with respect to resolution and study area extent, such that it can be used at a range of spatial scales.…”

Section: Scenario Analysis With Aomentioning

confidence: 99%

A modelling approach to inform regional cumulative effects assessment in northern Ontario

Antwi,

Rempel,

Carlson

et al. 2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Cumulatively, the effects of resource extraction and climate change have the potential to cause an unprecedented change to the ecosystems and livelihoods of Indigenous communities in Canada’s northern regions. Maintaining environmental and community values in the presence of such change will require a comprehensive understanding of potential long-term risks and opportunities to prevent or mitigate risks at the regional level. However, assessing the cumulative impact and benefits of the multiple disturbances at the regional level is complex due to the interaction of numerous drivers, values, actors, assessment scales, planning, and decision-making processes. We develop an integrated risk and cumulative effects (CE) management methodology to inform regional assessment by combining conceptual modelling through bowtie analysis and quantitative scenario analysis using ALCES Online (AO) simulation. We applied the framework using a case example in the Ring of Fire region of northern Ontario, Canada, to assess the CE of climate change, land use change, and wildlife harvest on the moose (Alces alces)-wolf (Canis lupus)-caribou (Rangifer tarandus) prey-predator system. The bowtie risk analysis provided a mechanism to define the management problem by identifying threats that contribute to risk, associated consequences, and specific management strategies that could be pursued under legislative frameworks and changes to maintain the sustainable dynamics of the moose-wolf-caribou system (MWC). The AO simulation of different levels of development and moose harvest, as well a baseline scenario that excluded climate change and development, allowed for a comprehensive examination of the complex processes driving the social-ecological system. The scenario analysis suggests that moose harvest can promote balance in the MWC system but only if applied in a sophisticated manner that limits moose harvest in areas with high road density, increases moose harvest in more remote regions susceptible to moose population expansion with climate change, and prioritizes Indigenous moose harvest to ensure a sustainable supply of moose for subsistence harvest. The case example shows how conceptual and quantitative modelling can provide the strategic perspective required for regional assessment.

show abstract

Quantifying Long-Term Bird Population Responses to Simulated Harvest Plans and Cumulative Effects of Disturbance

Cited by 10 publications

References 60 publications

Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)

Forecasting the Cumulative Effects of Multiple Stressors on Breeding Habitat for a Steeply Declining Aerial Insectivorous Songbird, the Olive-sided Flycatcher (Contopus cooperi)

Point count offsets for estimating population sizes of north American landbirds

A modelling approach to inform regional cumulative effects assessment in northern Ontario

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About