Quantifying movement patterns and vaccination status of high risk mobile populations in Pakistan and Afghanistan to inform poliovirus risk and vaccination strategy

Molodecky, Natalia A.; Usman, Ali; Javaid, Asif; Wahdan, Ashraf; Parker, Edward P K; Ahmed, Jamal; Shah, Nadeem; Agbor, John; Mahamud, Abdirahman; Safdar, Rana Muhammad

doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.03.001

Cited by 4 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…This section begins with a brief overview of each of the 102 studies identified by the search process summarized in Figure 1 [ 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 , 10 , 11 , 12 , 13 , 14 , 15 , 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 , 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 , 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 , 48 , 49 , 50 , 51 , 52 , 53 , 54 ,…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The studies identified for IC for 2020–2024.25 showed its continued focus on statistical analyses of existing surveillance data and data collected as part of prospective trials or challenge studies and included a new focus area related to the development of a poliovirus direct detection method. With respect to transmission modeling, IC applied an SC model to characterize the spread of serotype-2 vaccine-derived-poliovirus outbreaks in Pakistan and Afghanistan to inform outbreak control strategies in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic [ 47 ], which built on a statistical analysis that quantified movement patterns and vaccination status in high-risk mobile populations [ 48 ].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020–2024

Thompson,

Badizadegan

2024

Pathogens

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Continued investment in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission, economics, and risks leads to their use in support of polio endgame strategy development and risk management policies. This study complements an earlier review covering the period 2000–2019 and discusses the evolution of studies published since 2020 by modeling groups supported by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) partners and others. We systematically review modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2020–2024.25 that focus on poliovirus transmission and health economic analyses. In spite of the long-anticipated end of poliovirus transmission and the GPEI sunset, which would lead to the end of its support for modeling, we find that the number of modeling groups supported by GPEI partners doubled and the rate of their publications increased. Modeling continued to play a role in supporting GPEI and national/regional policies, but changes in polio eradication governance, decentralized management and decision-making, and increased heterogeneity in modeling approaches and findings decreased the overall impact of modeling results. Meanwhile, the failure of the 2016 globally coordinated cessation of type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine use for preventive immunization and the introduction of new poliovirus vaccines and formulation, increased the complexity and uncertainty of poliovirus transmission and economic models and policy recommendations during this time.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020–2024

Thompson,

Badizadegan

2024

Pathogens

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“…Human mobility underlies the spatial spread of infectious diseases across a wide range of pathogens and can influence control efforts by introducing pathogens into susceptible persons and environments. [1][2][3][4][5][6][7] Increasingly, aggregated data sets such as mobile phone, census migration, and airline flight data are used to quantify population-level mobility patterns across settings. [8][9][10][11][12] These data sets allow for an unprecedented lens into patterns of population mobility, particularly in data-poor settings where traditional data sets (such as commuting surveys) may be limited.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What Heterogeneities in Individual-level Mobility Are Lost During Aggregation? Leveraging GPS Logger Data to Understand Fine-scale and Aggregated Patterns of Mobility

Schaber

Tamaki

Hast

et al. 2022

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

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Human movement drives spatial transmission patterns of infectious diseases. Population-level mobility patterns are often quantified using aggregated data sets, such as census migration surveys or mobile phone data. These data are often unable to quantify individual-level travel patterns and lack the information needed to discern how mobility varies by demographic groups. Individual-level datasets can capture additional, more precise, aspects of mobility that may impact disease risk or transmission patterns and determine how mobility differs across cohorts; however, these data are rare, particularly in locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Using detailed GPS logger data collected from three sites in southern Africa, we explore metrics of mobility such as percent time spent outside home, number of locations visited, distance of locations, and time spent at locations to determine whether they vary by demographic, geographic, or temporal factors. We further create a composite mobility score to identify how well aggregated summary measures would capture the full extent of mobility patterns. Although sites had significant differences in all mobility metrics, no site had the highest mobility for every metric, a distinction that was not captured by the composite mobility score. Further, the effects of sex, age, and season on mobility were all dependent on site. No factor significantly influenced the number of trips to locations, a common way to aggregate datasets. When collecting and analyzing human mobility data, it is difficult to account for all the nuances; however, these analyses can help determine which metrics are most helpful and what underlying differences may be present.

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“…4,5 Moreover, even the spread of type 1 WPV has currently been restricted to certain areas in Pakistan and Afghanistan, indicating that global polio eradication has entered a critical period and appears to be achievable in the near future. 6,7 Although such significant progress has been achieved, the risk of paralytic poliomyelitis is not eliminated because paralysis cases caused by vaccine-associated PVs can occur in a small fraction of OPV recipients and their close contacts. To improve the implementation of PV surveillance, OPV-related PVs have been divided into two categories: Sabin-like PVs and vaccine-derived PVs (VDPVs).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indigenous type 2 WPV was declared eradicated in 2015 and type 3 WPV in 2019 4,5 . Moreover, even the spread of type 1 WPV has currently been restricted to certain areas in Pakistan and Afghanistan, indicating that global polio eradication has entered a critical period and appears to be achievable in the near future 6,7 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Molecular evolution and antigenic drift of type 3 iVDPVs excreted from a patient with immunodeficiency in Ningxia, China

Fan

et al. 2022

Journal of Medical Virology

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A 2.5‐year‐old pediatric patient with acute flaccid paralysis was diagnosed with primary immunodeficiency (PID) in Ningxia Province, China, in 2011. Twelve consecutive stool specimens were collected from the patient over a period of 10 months (18 February 2011 to 20 November 2011), and 12 immunodeficiency vaccine‐derived poliovirus (iVDPV) strains (CHN15017‐1 to CHN15017‐12) were subsequently isolated. Nucleotide sequencing analysis of the plaque‐purified iVDPVs revealed 2%–3.5% VP1‐region differences from their parental Sabin 3 strain. Full‐length genome sequencing showed they were all Sabin 3/Sabin 1 recombinants, sharing a common 2C‐region crossover site, and the two key determinants of attenuation (U472C in the 5′ untranslated region and T2493C in the VP1 region) had reverted. Temperature‐sensitive experiments demonstrated that the first two iVDPV strains partially retained the temperature‐sensitive phenotype's nature, while the subsequent ten iVDPV strains distinctly lost it, possibly associated with increased neurovirulence. Nineteen amino‐acid substitutions were detected between 12 iVDPVs and the parental Sabin strain, of which only one (K1419R) was found on the subsequent 10 iVDPV isolates, suggesting this site's potential as a temperature‐sensitive determination site. A Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain phylogenetic analysis based on the P1 coding region yielded a mean iVDPV evolutionary rate of 1.02 × 10−2 total substitutions/site/year, and the initial oral‐polio‐vaccine dose was presumably administered around June 2009. Our findings provide valuable information regarding the genetic structure, high‐temperature growth sensitivity, and antigenic properties of iVDPVs following long‐term evolution in a single PID patient, thus augmenting the currently limited knowledge regarding the dynamic changes and evolutionary pathway of iVDPV populations with PID during long‐term global replication.

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Quantifying movement patterns and vaccination status of high risk mobile populations in Pakistan and Afghanistan to inform poliovirus risk and vaccination strategy

Cited by 4 publications

References 10 publications

Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020–2024

Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020–2024

What Heterogeneities in Individual-level Mobility Are Lost During Aggregation? Leveraging GPS Logger Data to Understand Fine-scale and Aggregated Patterns of Mobility

Molecular evolution and antigenic drift of type 3 iVDPVs excreted from a patient with immunodeficiency in Ningxia, China

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