Data Science for Economics and Finance 2021
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-66891-4_12
|View full text |Cite
|
Sign up to set email alerts
|

Quantifying News Narratives to Predict Movements in Market Risk

Abstract: The theory of Narrative Economics suggests that narratives present in media influence market participants and drive economic events. In this chapter, we investigate how financial news narratives relate to movements in the CBOE Volatility Index. To this end, we first introduce an uncharted dataset where news articles are described by a set of financial keywords. We then perform topic modeling to extract news themes, comparing the canonical latent Dirichlet analysis to a technique combining doc2vec and Gaussian … Show more

Help me understand this report

Search citation statements

Order By: Relevance

Paper Sections

Select...
2
1
1

Citation Types

0
4
0

Year Published

2022
2022
2024
2024

Publication Types

Select...
5
1
1

Relationship

0
7

Authors

Journals

citations
Cited by 7 publications
(4 citation statements)
references
References 19 publications
0
4
0
Order By: Relevance
“…In addition, several FinTech and InsurTech applications (like personalized healthcare insurance based on medical devices and improved car insurance based on connected car sensors) take advantage of contextual data associated with finance and insurance services to offer better quality of service at a more competitive cost, thanks to the proliferation of IoT devices and applications (like Fitbits, smart phones, and smart home devices) [5]. Also, new opportunities for accurate, automated, and customized services [6] can be found in non-traditional data sources like social media and online news.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…In addition, several FinTech and InsurTech applications (like personalized healthcare insurance based on medical devices and improved car insurance based on connected car sensors) take advantage of contextual data associated with finance and insurance services to offer better quality of service at a more competitive cost, thanks to the proliferation of IoT devices and applications (like Fitbits, smart phones, and smart home devices) [5]. Also, new opportunities for accurate, automated, and customized services [6] can be found in non-traditional data sources like social media and online news.…”
Section: Literature Reviewmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…When using machine learning models to collect alternative data, commonly used machine learning models include logistic regression, support vector machines, adaboost [4], etc. Taking stock market forecasting as an example, recent literature data shows that machine learning models are generally superior to statistical and econometric models.…”
Section: Alternate Data Gathering and Collectingmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…(Shiller, 2017, p.967), there has been an emerging literature that theorises and quantifies the economic impact of narratives. While Shiller's focus was predominantly on narratives that could be considered viral, recent studies have expanded this scope to encompasse various issues, with a particular focus on risk and returns in financial markets (Adämmer & Schüssler, 2020;Dierckx, Davis, & Schoutens, 2021;Ke, Kelly, & Xiu, 2019;Borup, Hansen, Liengaard, & Montes Schütte, 2023;Bybee, Kelly, & Su, 2022). Others have demonstrated the economic impact of narratives (Larsen & Thorsrud, 2018;Bybee, Kelly, Manela, & Xiu, 2023;Bertsch, Hull, & Zhang, 2021;Larsen, Thorsrud, & Zhulanova, 2021;van Binsbergen, Bryzgalova, Mukhopadhyay, & Sharma, 2024;Flynn & Sastry, 2022), their political importance (Jelveh, Kogut, & Naidu, 2022;Eliaz & Spiegler, 2020), and used them to measure geopolitical risk (Caldara & Iacoviello, 2022).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%