Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe

Ščasný, Milan; Massetti, Emanuele; Melichar, Jan; Carrara, Samuel

doi:10.1007/s10640-015-9969-y

Cited by 35 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…In recent estimates of the non-climaterelated health benefits of abandoning fossil fuels (e.g. Parry et al 2014;Thompson et al 2014;West et al 2013;Ščasný et al 2015), the effects of uncertainty about the steepness of climate damages (Crost and Traeger 2014) and the potential of multiple abrupt disruptions in the climate system (Cai et al 2016;Lemoine and Traeger 2016) provide ample reasons for raising the carbon price.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The simple arithmetic of carbon pricing and stranded assets

Ploeg

Rezai

2017

Energy Efficiency

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A simple rule for the optimal global price of carbon is presented, which captures the geophysical, economic, and ethical drivers of climate policy as well as the effect of uncertainty about future growth of consumption. There is also a discussion of the optimal carbon budget and the amount of unburnable carbon and stranded fossil fuel reserves and a back-on-theenvelope expression are given for calculating these. It is also shown how one can derive the end of the carbon era and peak warming. This simple arithmetic for determining climate policy is meant to complement the simulations of large-scale integrated assessment model, and to give analytical understanding of the key determinants of climate policy. The simple rules perform very well in a full integrated assessment model. It is also shown how to take account of a 2°C upper limit on global warming. Steady increases in energy efficiency do not affect the optimal price of carbon, but postpone the carbon-free era somewhat and if technical progress in renewables and economic growth are strong leads to substantially lower cumulative emissions and lower peak global warming.Keywords Social cost of carbon . Carbon budget . Peak warming . End of carbon era JEL codes H21 . Q51 . Q54

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The simple arithmetic of carbon pricing and stranded assets

Ploeg

Rezai

2017

Energy Efficiency

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“…Considerable empirical evidence shows that valuation of health (i.e., willingness-to-pay) rises with income. As future income is unknown, we use as a proxy GDP growth for the 2015-2050 period from the integrated assessment World Induced Technical Change Hybrid (WITCH) model [35,36]. The WITCH model estimated GDP endogenously for 13 regions of the world assuming that economic growth follows the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions evolving according to the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) mitigation scenario 4.5.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Health Costs of Revised Coal Mining Limits in Northern Bohemia

Máca

Melichar

2016

Energies

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Brown coal has been the major source of energy for more than 150 years for the Czech economy, but its role in the coming decades is nowadays the source of heated debate. Many of the recurring discussions address the coal reserves that were set aside in 1991 in order to halt the massive destruction of the landscape and the unprecedented deterioration of the human environment in Northern Bohemia. We study the proposed variants of the revised mining limits using the impact-pathway approach in order to quantify and monetize the health effects of airborne emissions from coal mining and the use of extracted coal for the production of electricity and heat. We find that the dominant health impacts associated with the revision of the limits, estimated to be up to 7 billion euros over the 2015-2050 period, will stem from the use of coal for the production of electricity and heat and that a large part of the impact will be borne by populations outside the Czech Republic.

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“…The IPA comprises four basic steps: (i) selection of the reference power plant and determination of harmful emissions releases; (ii) calculation of changes in pollutant concentrations for all affected regions using atmospheric dispersion models; (iii) estimation of physical impacts from exposure using concentration-response functions; and (iv) economic valuation of impacts. The IPA covers a range of impacts on human health, buildings and materials, biodiversity, and crop yields (see [33] for a detailed description).…”

Section: Quantification Of Damagementioning

confidence: 99%

“…First, the same value of damage over the entire period is assumed. Alternatively, the willingness to pay values for avoiding the adverse effects and hence value of damage may be time variant and likely grow over time as real consumption will grow, as assumed, for instance, in Ščasný et al [33] (following the approach described in [33] and assuming 3, 2, and 1 per cent growth in real consumption before 2015, during 2015-2030, and after 2030, respectively, we get qualitatively similar results as when no price adjustment is made. In absolute terms, cumulative value of the external costs is about 45% higher with the adjustments.…”

Section: Quantification Of Damagementioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Reclassified Brown Coal Reserves on the Energy System and Deep Decarbonisation Target in the Czech Republic

Rečka

Ščasný

2017

Energies

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Abstract:In 2015, a 24-year-long prohibition of coal mining within some territories in the North Bohemia coal basin was lifted and as a consequence mining a part of the brown coal reserves might well be resumed. This paper analyses the impacts of maintaining the ban versus three options for a less environmentally stringent policy on the Czech energy system; fuel-and technology-mix, the costs of generating energy, emissions and related external costs up to 2050. We find that overall the effect of lifting the ban, on coal usage, air pollutant emissions and hence externalities is rather small, up to 1-2% compared to the level of keeping the ban. The small difference in the impacts remains even if changes in the prices of fossil fuels and European Emission Allowances or different development in nuclear power usage are assumed. In fact, changing these assumptions will result in more pronounced differences in the impacts than the four policy options might deliver. Maintaining the ban would not achieve the European Energy Roadmap 2050 target and the newly adopted policy and the other two counter-environmental proposals would miss the 80% reduction target to an even greater degree. The environmental and external health costs attributable to emissions of local air pollutants stemming from power generation are in a range of €26-32 billion over the whole period and decline from about 0.5% of gross domestic product in 2015 to 0.1% in 2050.

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Quantifying the Ancillary Benefits of the Representative Concentration Pathways on Air Quality in Europe

Cited by 35 publications

References 49 publications

The simple arithmetic of carbon pricing and stranded assets

The simple arithmetic of carbon pricing and stranded assets

The Health Costs of Revised Coal Mining Limits in Northern Bohemia

Impacts of Reclassified Brown Coal Reserves on the Energy System and Deep Decarbonisation Target in the Czech Republic

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