Quantifying the dynamics of migration after Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Acosta, Rolando J.; Kishore, Nishant; Irizarry, Rafael A.; Buckee, Caroline O.

doi:10.1073/pnas.2001671117

Cited by 45 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Our estimates of displacement of the population ages 65 and older of approximately 7.1% (40 700 individuals) is in line with the existing literature and supports the consensus using other methodologies that the natural disaster led to displacement in aggregate terms of approximately 4.1%–5.6% of the total population of Puerto Rico. 33 34 This design, effectively used in related studies and other contexts to account for population movements, is broadly applicable both in other countries and in other disaster contexts (both natural and otherwise), particularly as displacement and mobility becomes an increasingly important feature of natural disasters. 11…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA post Hurricane Maria: an interrupted time series analysis

2022

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ObjectivesTo determine death occurrences of Puerto Ricans on the mainland USA following the arrival of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in September 2017.DesignCross-sectional study.ParticipantsPersons of Puerto Rican origin on the mainland USA.ExposuresHurricane Maria.Main outcomeWe use an interrupted time series design to analyse all-cause mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA following the hurricane. Hispanic origin data from the National Vital Statistics System and from the Public Use Microdata Sample of the American Community Survey are used to estimate monthly origin-specific mortality rates for the period 2012–2018. We estimated log-linear regressions of monthly deaths of persons of Puerto Rican origin by age group, gender, and educational attainment.ResultsWe found an increase in mortality for persons of Puerto Rican origin during the 6-month period following the hurricane (October 2017 through March 2018), suggesting that deaths among these persons were 3.7% (95% CI 0.025 to 0.049) higher than would have otherwise been expected. In absolute terms, we estimated 514 excess deaths (95% CI 346 to 681) of persons of Puerto Rican origin that occurred on the mainland USA, concentrated in those aged 65 years or older.ConclusionsOur findings suggest an undercounting of previous deaths as a result of the hurricane due to the systematic effects on the displaced and resident populations in the mainland USA. Displaced populations are frequently overlooked in disaster relief and subsequent research. Ignoring these populations provides an incomplete understanding of the damages and loss of life.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA post Hurricane Maria: an interrupted time series analysis

2022

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“…The inability to agree on an anticipated future and act upon it leaves people to the resources they have after disaster. Even after Hurricane Maria, which struck Puerto Rico in 2017, the best estimate is that the population declined by between 4% and possibly up to 17% about a year after the hurricane (Acosta et al 2020).…”

Section: Anticipating Displacement and Measuring Movementmentioning

confidence: 99%

Domestic Structures, Misalignment, and Defining the Climate Displacement Problem

Sterett

2021

Social Sciences

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This paper contrasts how climate reports describe displacement with how analyses of moving after disaster have described whether people move. The paper argues that domestic structures govern displacement, and are likely to continue to. Domestically, people have different legal statuses and access to resources, which shape the ability to move. Authoritative governance documents on climate change, including the United States National Climate Assessment, argue that climate change will lead to increasing numbers of displaced people. On the other hand, demographers and economists who study where people move to after disaster have argued that climate reports overstate the risk of mass displacement, based in what has happened after past disasters. Domestic governance processes influence resettlement, and they can change. Studies of whether people move after disaster do not take into account how changes in insurance rates or other rules shaping where people live could reshape resettlement. On the other hand, analyses of governing potential climate displacement draw on international agreements and documents. has often centered on islands advocates argue will disappear, not the changing habitability of places that also depends on the resources people have. The image of disappearing islands misdirects from the risks of climate displacement in wealthier countries, where some people have extensive resources and others do not. This paper argues that the risk of displacement requires turning to follow the domestic governance processes that shape people’s decisions now. This approach fits with calls to work from people’s claims up to governance processes, rather than from processes downward.

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“…In addition to analyzing the short term human mobility patterns after Cyclone events (hours ∼ weeks), the study quantifies the incidence, direction, duration and seasonality of migration in Bangladesh. Acosta et al quantified the migration dynamics from Puerto Rico after Hurricane maria using mobile phone, showing a shift from rural to urban areas after the disaster 57 . Yabe et al studied the population displacement and recovery patterns after five disaster events, including Hurricanes Maria and Irma, earthquakes, floods, and tsunami using mobile phone GPS datasets from Japan and the US (Figure 3) 5 .…”

Section: Longer-term Analysis: Migration and Recoverymentioning

confidence: 99%

Mobile Phone Location Data for Disasters: A Review from Natural Hazards and Epidemics

Yabe¹,

Jones²,

Rao³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Rapid urbanization and climate change trends are intertwined with complex interactions of various social, economic, and political factors. The increased trends of disaster risks have recently caused numerous events, ranging from unprecedented category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean to the COVID-19 pandemic. While regions around the world face urgent demands to prepare for, respond to, and to recover from such disasters, large-scale location data collected from mobile phone devices have opened up novel approaches to tackle these challenges. Mobile phone location data have enabled us to observe, estimate, and model human mobility dynamics at an unprecedented spatio-temporal granularity and scale. The COVID-19 pandemic has spurred the use of mobile phone location data for pandemic and disaster response. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive review that synthesizes the last decade of work leveraging mobile phone location data and case studies of natural hazards and epidemics. We address this gap by summarizing the existing work, and pointing promising areas and future challenges for using data to support disaster response and recovery.With population growth in many of the developing countries and concentration of resources and opportunities in urban areas, many cities around the world are experiencing rapid urbanization. The United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) estimates that by 2050, 68% of the people in the world is projected to be living in cities, compared to 55% in 2018 1 . In addition to rapid urbanization, continued anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further changes in the climate system, increasing the likelihood of severe and pervasive climate related hazards, including hurricanes, tropical cyclones, river floods, heat waves, and droughts 2 . Taken together, rapid urbanization and climate change, combined with complex interactions of various social, economic, and political factors, have increased and could further increase the risks of disasters across the globe. For example, urbanization could lead to more population living in vulnerable locations to hazards, and more frequent disasters could widen the economic gap due to disproportionate impacts, which could then lead to political divide and instability. A "disaster" is a condition or event that leads to an unstable and dangerous situation for human society, and covers a wide range of shocks, including climate related hazards such as hurricanes, non-climate related natural hazards such as earthquakes and epidemics including COVID-19. Regions around the world need to urgently prepare for, respond to, and to recovery from these multitude of disasters for sustainable development.The pervasiveness of mobile devices (mobile phones, smartphones) across the globe has opened up massive opportunities to collect large-scale location data from individual users at an unprecedented scale compared to previous approaches (see Figure 1 for number of publications on human mobility and mobile phone data). Human mo...

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Quantifying the dynamics of migration after Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico

Cited by 45 publications

References 16 publications

Mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA post Hurricane Maria: an interrupted time series analysis

Mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA post Hurricane Maria: an interrupted time series analysis

Domestic Structures, Misalignment, and Defining the Climate Displacement Problem

Mobile Phone Location Data for Disasters: A Review from Natural Hazards and Epidemics

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