Quantifying the Hurricane Catastrophe Risk to Offshore Wind Power

Abstract

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100-year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10-year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk.

A probabilistic framework for offshore wind turbine loss assessment

“…Other metrics, such as those relating to life-safety are not of primary importance for offshore wind as the turbine is normally unmanned, apart from brief periods to allow for maintenance activities [14]. Rose et al [15] quantified resilience of an OWT through robustness by estimating the cost incurred by loss of functionality after an extreme event. This allows the failure severity of different components to be compared within a unified metric, because each has a different material cost (replacement).…”

Risk Analysis for U.S. Offshore Wind Farms: The Need for an Integrated Approach

“…The risk factors present in the framework were chosen based on the known issues that cause damage to or affect the power generation of wind turbines. Hurricanes have the potential to cause significant damage to offshore wind turbines in many locations in the United States . Wind farms located in colder regions often have issues caused by icing on wind turbines.…”

“…Hurricanes have the potential to cause significant damage to offshore wind turbines in many locations in the United States. (14) Wind farms located in colder regions often have issues caused by icing on wind turbines. Ice storms and icing events during the winter months can result in decreased power generation and can also damage the turbines themselves.…”

“…Some of these risks and hazards affecting turbines have been looked at, but they have been primarily studied on an individual basis. For example, Rose et al (14) have conducted an in-depth study of the impact of hurricanes on offshore wind farms and Tavner et al (15) have studied turbine reliability and failure rates. In addition, Dueñas-Osorio and Basu have studied dangerous accelerations from wind.…”

Recent results on the integration of variable renewable electric power into the US grid

“…While these analyses showed the risk to individual wind plants, a larger concern for system operators is the number of turbines that might be simultaneously unavailable as a result of hurricanes. To evaluate this risk, Rose et al 56 developed a model to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power. This analysis showed that only a small fraction of offshore wind power in a region would be offl ine simultaneously because of tower buckling by hurricanes.…”