Quantifying the hydrological impact of simulated changes in land use on peak discharge in a small catchment

Kalantari, Zahra; Lyon, Steve W.; Folkeson, Lennart; French, Helen K.; Stolte, Jannes; Jansson, Per‐Erik; Sassner, Mona

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.07.047

Cited by 76 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…Human societies have (intentionally or accidentally) altered the frequency, magnitude, and spatial distribution of flood and drought events (Falkenmark and Rockström, 2008;Di Baldassarre et al, 2009;Vörösmarty et al, 2013;Blöschl et al, 2013;Montanari et al, 2013;AghaKouchak et al, 2015;Destouni et al, 2013;Van Loon et al, 2016;Kalantari et al, 2014). Dams and reservoirs are examples of water management measures that deliberately change hydrological variability (Ye et al, 2003) and significantly affect hydrological extremes, as schematically depicted in Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation

et al. 2017

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Abstract.Over the last few decades, numerous studies have investigated human impacts on drought and flood events, while conversely other studies have explored human responses to hydrological extremes. Yet, there is still little understanding about the dynamics resulting from their interplay, i.e. both impacts and responses. Current quantitative methods therefore can fail to assess future risk dynamics and, as a result, while risk reduction strategies built on these methods often work in the short term, they tend to lead to unintended consequences in the long term. In this paper, we review the puzzles and dynamics resulting from the interplay of society and hydrological extremes, and describe an initial effort to model hydrological extremes in the Anthropocene. In particular, we first discuss the need for a novel approach to explicitly account for human interactions with both drought and flood events, and then present a stylized model simulating the reciprocal effects between hydrological extremes and changing reservoir operation rules. Lastly, we highlight the unprecedented opportunity offered by the current proliferation of big data to unravel the coevolution of hydrological extremes and society across scales and along gradients of social and hydrological conditions.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation

et al. 2017

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“…In the Mediterranean basin, these effects could lead to increasing droughts on one hand (Törnros and Menzel, 2014 [8]; Hoerling et al 2012 [9]; Dai, 2011 [10]; Smiatek et al 2011 [11]; 2013 [12]; 2014 [13]) and intensified flood events on the other (Yosef et al 2009 [14]; Samuels et al 2011 [15]). Land use changes and increasing urbanization are also factors that may enhance flood intensity and frequency (e.g., Bronstert et al 2002 [16]; Chang et al 2008 [17]; Githui et al 2010 [18]; Delgado et al 2010 [19]; Kalantari, 2014 [20]. Given the aforementioned non-stationarity in both climate forcing and terrestrial hydrologic conditions, operational flood prediction methods should be able to rapidly incorporate dynamically evolving atmospheric and land surface conditions and the feedbacks between them without a prolonged calibration period.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing One-Way and Two-Way Coupled Hydrometeorological Forecasting Systems for Flood Forecasting in the Mediterranean Region

et al. 2016

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Abstract:A pair of hydro-meteorological modeling systems were calibrated and evaluated for the Ayalon basin in central Israel to assess the advantages and limitations of one-way versus two-way coupled modeling systems for flood prediction. The models used included the Hydrological Engineering Center-Hydrological Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Hydro modeling system. The models were forced by observed, interpolated precipitation from rain-gauges within the basin, and with modeled precipitation from the WRF atmospheric model. Detailed calibration and evaluation was carried out for two major winter storms in January and December 2013. Then, both modeling systems were executed and evaluated in an operational mode for the full 2014/2015 rainy season. Outputs from these simulations were compared to observed measurements from the hydrometric station at the Ayalon basin outlet. Various statistical metrics were employed to quantify and analyze the results: correlation, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency coefficient. Foremost, the results presented in this study highlight the sensitivity of hydrological responses to different sources of simulated and observed precipitation data, and demonstrate improvement, although not significant, at the Hydrological response, like simulated hydrographs. With observed precipitation data both calibrated models closely simulated the observed hydrographs. The two-way coupled WRF/WRF-Hydro modeling system produced improved both the precipitation and hydrological simulations as compared to the one-way WRF simulations. Findings from this study, as well as previous studies, suggest that the use of two-way atmospheric-hydrological coupling has the potential to improve precipitation and, therefore, hydrological forecasts for early flood warning applications. However, more research needed in order to better understand the land-atmosphere coupling mechanisms driving hydrometeorological processes on a wider variety precipitation and terrestrial hydrologic systems.

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“…The MIKE SHE model works using five model components including overland, channel, unsaturated, and saturated flow as well as evapotranspiration [64]. According to the spatial variation in the catchment area, MIKE SHE divides a basin horizontally into an orthogonal grid network and uses vertical columns; every horizontal grid square represents a unique variation in the vertical direction.…”

Section: Hydrological Modellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi–Model Ensemble Approaches to Assessment of Effects of Local Climate Change on Water Resources of the Hotan River Basin in Xinjiang, China

Luo

Meng

et al. 2017

Water

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Abstract:The effects of global climate change threaten the availability of water resources worldwide and modify their tempo-spatial pattern. Properly quantifying the possible effects of climate change on water resources under different hydrological models is a great challenge in ungauged alpine regions. By using remote sensing data to support established models, this study aimed to reveal the effects of climate change using two models of hydrological processes including total water resources, peak flows, evapotranspiration, snowmelt and snow accumulation in the ungauged Hotan River Basin under future representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The results revealed that stream flow was much more sensitive to temperature variation than precipitation change and increased by 0.9-10.0% according to MIKE SHE or 6.5-10.5% according to SWAT. Increased evapotranspiration was similar for both models with a range of 7.6-31.3%. The snow-covered area shrank from 32.5% to 11.9% between the elevations of 4200-6400 m, respectively, and snow accumulation increased when the elevation exceeded 6400 m above sea level (asl). The results also suggested that the fully distributed and semi-distributed structures of these two models strongly influenced the responses to climate change. The study proposes a practical approach to assess the climate change effect in ungauged regions.

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Quantifying the hydrological impact of simulated changes in land use on peak discharge in a small catchment

Cited by 76 publications

References 38 publications

Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation

Drought and flood in the Anthropocene: feedback mechanisms in reservoir operation

Comparing One-Way and Two-Way Coupled Hydrometeorological Forecasting Systems for Flood Forecasting in the Mediterranean Region

Multi–Model Ensemble Approaches to Assessment of Effects of Local Climate Change on Water Resources of the Hotan River Basin in Xinjiang, China

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