Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK

Jarvis, Christopher; Zandvoort, Kevin van; Gimma, Amy; Prem, Kiesha; Klepac, Petra; Rubin, G James; Edmunds, W. John

doi:10.1101/2020.03.31.20049023

Cited by 272 publications

(445 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Compared to the contact survey conducted in 2015, this first set of estimates from the BICS study suggests a 70% reduction in the daily average number of contacts per person. This finding is similar to the decline recently observed in the UK (Jarvis et al 2020).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Quantifying population contact patterns in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic

Feehan

Mahmud

2020

Preprint

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By the start of April 2020, the majority of people living in the United States were under orders to dramatically restrict their daily activities in order to reduce transmission of the virus that can cause COVID-19. These strong social distancing measures will be effective in controlling the spread of the virus only if they are able to reduce the amount of close interpersonal contact in a population.It is therefore crucial for researchers and policymakers to empirically measure the extent to which these policies have actually reduced interpersonal interaction. We

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Quantifying population contact patterns in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic

Feehan

Mahmud

2020

Preprint

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“…We use a stochastic age-structured epidemic transmission model calibrated on hospital admission data in Île-de-France to evaluate the expected impact of lockdown and exit strategies in controlling COVID-19 epidemic in the region. Our estimate of the reproductive number prior to lockdown is in line with estimates for the epidemic growth in Europe prior to the implementation of interventions 10,11 and results from a meta-analysis of the literature 13,35 . We predict it decreased significantly during lockdown with probability ranges suggesting the current value is below 1.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 81%

“…Results reported in the main paper refer to * = 0.2, those for * = 0.5 are shown in the Appendix. We compare the lockdown based on our reconstructed matrix with (i) a less stringent lockdown under the reduction of contacts measured in the UK 35 , and (ii) a more stringent lockdown under the reduction of contacts measured in China 36 . Exit strategies Exit 1-4 are also tested with a lockdown lifted in June, to account for the time that may be needed for preparedness in casefinding, testing, and isolation.…”

Section: Sensitivity Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies

Domenico

Pullano

Sabbatini

et al. 2020

Preprint

104

207

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More than half of the global population is currently under strict forms of social distancing, with more than 90 countries in lockdown, including France. Estimating the expected impact of the lockdown, and the potential effectiveness of different exit strategies is critical to inform decision makers on the management of the COVID-19 health crisis. We use a stochastic age-structured transmission model integrating data on age profile and social contacts in the Île-de-France region to (i) assess the current epidemic situation, (ii) evaluate the expected impact of the lockdown implemented in France on March 17, 2020, and (iii) estimate the effectiveness of possible exit strategies. The model is calibrated on hospital admission data of the region before lockdown and validated on syndromic and virological surveillance data. Different types and durations of social distancing interventions are simulated, including a progressive lifting of the lockdown targeted on specific classes of individuals (e.g. allowing a larger proportion of the population to go to work, while protecting the elderly), and large-scale testing. We estimate the basic reproductive number at 3.0 [2.8, 3.2] (95% confidence interval) prior to lockdown and the population infected by COVID-19 as of April 5 to be in the range 1% to 6%. The average number of contacts is predicted to be reduced by 80% during lockdown, leading to a substantial reduction of the reproductive number ( "# =0.68 [0.62-0.73]). Under these conditions, the epidemic curve reaches ICU system capacity and slowly decreases during lockdown. Lifting the lockdown with no exit strategy would lead to a second wave largely overwhelming the healthcare system. Extensive case-finding, testing and isolation are required to envision social distancing strategies that gradually relax current constraints (larger fraction of individuals going back to work, progressive reopening of activities), while keeping schools closed and seniors isolated. As France faces the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in lockdown, intensive forms of social distancing are required in the upcoming months due to the currently low population immunity. Extensive case-finding and isolation would allow the partial release of the socio-economic pressure caused by extreme measures, while avoiding healthcare demand exceeding capacity. Response planning needs to urgently prioritize the logistics and capacity for these interventions.

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“…Although an average individual in Shanghai reported more contacts than one in Wuhan on a regular weekday, this difference essentially disappeared during the COVID-19 outbreak period. A similar decrease in the number of contacts was found in the UK during the COVID-19 lockdown period (8).…”

Section: Changes In Contact Patterns Shape the Dynamics Of The Covid-supporting

confidence: 71%

Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

Zhang

Litvinova

Liang

et al. 2020

Science

1,107

1,238

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Intense nonpharmaceutical interventions were put in place in China to stop transmission of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As transmission intensifies in other countries, the interplay between age, contact patterns, social distancing, susceptibility to infection, and COVID-19 dynamics remains unclear. To answer these questions, we analyze contact survey data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the outbreak and contact-tracing information from Hunan province. Daily contacts were reduced seven- to eightfold during the COVID-19 social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to the household. We find that children 0 to 14 years of age are less susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection than adults 15 to 64 years of age (odds ratio 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0.49), whereas individuals more than 65 years of age are more susceptible to infection (odds ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.92). Based on these data, we built a transmission model to study the impact of social distancing and school closure on transmission. We find that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19. Although proactive school closures cannot interrupt transmission on their own, they can reduce peak incidence by 40 to 60% and delay the epidemic.

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Quantifying the impact of physical distance measures on the transmission of COVID-19 in the UK

Abstract: Background:

Cited by 272 publications

References 11 publications

Quantifying population contact patterns in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic

Quantifying population contact patterns in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic

Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 epidemic in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies

Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

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