Quantitative assessment of the dynamics and attribution of arable land water scarcity for arid and semiarid areas based on water footprint framework: the Inner Mongolia case

Abstract

Growing water shortages have been a systemic risk around the world, especially in arid and semi-arid areas, with seriously threatening global food security and human well-being. Reasonable and accurate evaluations of the water shortages of cultivated lands provide scientific reference for irrigation strategies. In this study, to better understand the distribution and cause of water scarcity for the arid and semiarid areas, we used the arable land water scarcity index (AWSI), based on water footprint theory to accurately estimate the temporal and spatial patterns of the AWSI of Inner Mongolia in China over 1999–2018, and further reveal the key factors influencing the AWSI distribution. The AWSI distribution pattern of Inner Mongolia was high in southwest and low in northeast, with an average value of 0.63 and suffering from high water stress for a long time. The AWSI presented an increasing trend in 1999–2018, with slow in west (change rate2%) and fast in east (2%). The main factors that significantly affected the AWSI were precipitation, relative humidity, and agricultural planting area. This study can provide scientific reference for the formulation of agricultural water management and sustainable use strategies in arid and semiarid areas.