Quantitative Assessment of the Economic Impact of the Trade Disruptions Following the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Borin, Alessandro; Conteduca, Francesco Paolo; Stefano, Enrica Di; Gunnella, Vanessa; Mancini, Michele; Panon, Ludovic

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4223361

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…Moreover, the paper of Mansury et al (2023) demonstrates that an increase in trade openness reduces conflict involvement. The study of Borin et al (2022) goes in the same direction of analysis, quantifying the impact of the restrictive measures and sanctions imposed on Russia upon international trade. In the first stage, the authors apply the general equilibrium trade model created by Antràs and Chor (2018), whereas in the second stage, they use the Bachmann et al (2022) model.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Russia’s military conflict against Ukraine and its impact on the European Union’s wealth. Can good governance counteract the effects of the war?

Negri

Dincă

2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

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Russia’s war against Ukraine, which originated in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, is undoubtedly one of the defining events of this current period, expected to exert a significant impact on the entire world’s economies. This study aims to determine whether the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has a significant impact on European Union (EU) Member States, particularly on the economic output of the EU countries, in the post-pandemic context. Difference-in-difference methodology alongside panel data econometric techniques are used to study the relationship between the effects of war, reflected in the deepening energy crisis, inflation, limited trade relations, restructuring of governmental expenditures, and the migrant crisis, together with economic freedom and governance quality as elements of neoliberal doctrine, and the economic wealth of EU Member States for the 1995–2021 period. In light of current research, the results prove that war has a significant impact on the economic output of the European Union structure, especially for the EU countries that rely the most on Russia’s energy imports. Using the difference in difference analysis, the impact of war on gdp_cap is evaluated as a drop in economic output of −405.08 euros per capita in the considered European countries. Applying panel regression analysis, defense and military expenditures, inflation, lack of trade openness, and increased levels of energy dependence negatively impact economic growth in the EU economies. In addition, this study provides essential information for public officials in order to prepare the EU economy for the recovery from war shocks in the forthcoming period, taking into account the study’s policy recommendations regarding energy reliance, restructuring public expenditure, prioritizing investment, and improving governance quality.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Russia’s military conflict against Ukraine and its impact on the European Union’s wealth. Can good governance counteract the effects of the war?

Negri

Dincă

2023

Front. Environ. Sci.

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“…Areas of inquiry include economic growth (Liadze et al, 2022; Mahlstein et al, 2022), stock market performance (Ahmed et al, 2022; Boungou & Yatié, 2022; Sun & Zhang, 2022), commodity markets (Fang & Shao, 2022; Ihle et al, 2022; Paulson et al, 2022), and food security (Abay et al, 2022; Behnassi & El Haiba, 2022; Carriquiry et al, 2022; Hellegers, 2022). Borin et al (2022) developed a theoretical framework to assess the economic and trade implications of the Russia–Ukraine war. They argue that the economic effects depend on a country's ability to diversify its supply chain.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade

2022

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This paper provides an ex‐post impact assessment of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on international grain and oilseed trade. We use a commodity‐level empirical model to assess the counterfactual trade effects and evaluate the region‐specific global trade reallocation effects. We find that grain and oilseed imports from Ukraine were 78.2% below the counterfactual between February and July 2022. The Russia–Ukraine war caused substantial trade diversion, mainly benefiting countries in North America and Europe. The adjustment of global grain and oilseed trade operates primarily through price adjustments, with considerable heterogeneity across commodity groups. Our ex‐ante analysis demonstrates that the Ukraine–Russia war had substantial trade implications for the directly involved countries but only limited ones for the global grain and oilseed markets in terms of traded quantity.

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“… See Bown (2022) for a comprehensive timeline of the provisions adopted in the context of the war.2 See, e.g Coe and Helpman (1995)Lawrence and Weinstein (1999) on the link between imports and growth.3 Other papers have assessed the long-run implications of the war using general equilibrium model-based approaches (e.g Borin et al, 2022;Mahlstein et al, 2022)…”

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confidence: 99%

The Real-Time Impact of the War on Russian Imports: A Synthetic Control Method Approach

Mancini,

Conteduca,

Borin

2024

World Trade Review

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In response to the invasion of Ukraine, the EU and most other advanced economies imposed extensive sanctions on Russia, intending to harm its production capabilities and hinder its economic activities by restricting its access to international trade and financial markets. This paper develops an empirical framework based on the synthetic control method to assess the impact of the war and the following sanctions on bilateral and sectoral exports to Russia almost in real time. The war and the following sanctions reduced aggregate exports to Russia by a third between March and December 2022, with the effects being stronger for sanctioning countries than for non-sanctioning ones, albeit with substantial country-level heterogeneity within each group. Exports to Russia in high-tech sectors – relatively more targeted by trade sanctions – have been disproportionately affected.

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Quantitative Assessment of the Economic Impact of the Trade Disruptions Following the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Cited by 12 publications

References 0 publications

Russia’s military conflict against Ukraine and its impact on the European Union’s wealth. Can good governance counteract the effects of the war?

Russia’s military conflict against Ukraine and its impact on the European Union’s wealth. Can good governance counteract the effects of the war?

The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade

The Real-Time Impact of the War on Russian Imports: A Synthetic Control Method Approach

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