The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade

Ahn, Soojung; Kim, Dongin; Steinbach, Sandro

doi:10.1002/agr.21794

Cited by 31 publications

(20 citation statements)

References 36 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The outcome of the reduced agricultural production due to a rise in cost of inputs makes the country even more reliant on importation of substitute agricultural commodities to ensure food security. Ahn et al (2022) have examined the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on international grain and oilseed trade using commodity level data. The results demonstrate that imports of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine were 78.2% below the counterfactual Ukraine between February and July 2022.…”

Section: Producer Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on grain and fertilizer supply: Evidence from Kenya

Mwatu

2023

World Food Policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper examines the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on grain and fertilizer supply to Kenya as the sixth largest economy in Africa using the Regression Discontinuity estimator on monthly data spanning from January 2017 to August 2022. The share of the quantity and value of cereals and fertilizer imports by Kenya from Russia and Ukraine in the total quantity and value of cereals and fertilizer imports by Kenya from world are utilized. The share of freight and insurance costs on grain and fertilizer imports by Kenya from Russia and Ukraine in total freight and insurance costs on grain and fertilizer from world have also been used. After controlling for sensitivity and incorporating depreciation of the exchange rate and a dummy on drought as covariates, the results indicate the war has had insignificant impact on imports of grain and fertilizer by Kenya though the impact is negative for grain but positive for fertilizer. The findings have policy implications touching on need for African countries to diversify import sources for grain and fertilizer, enhance productive capacities through investment on irrigation, strengthen diplomatic ties with existing import sources for grain and fertilizer, and invest in climate action to tackle drought incidences.

show abstract

Section: Producer Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Ahn et al (2022) have examined the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on international grain and oilseed trade using commodity level data. The results demonstrate that imports of grain and oilseeds from Ukraine were 78.2% below the counterfactual Ukraine between February and July 2022.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on grain and fertilizer supply: Evidence from Kenya

Mwatu

2023

World Food Policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Our analysis contributes to the emerging literature on the economic impacts of the Russian invasion on agricultural markets (Abay et al, 2022;Ahn et al, 2023;Mottaleb et al, 2022;von Cramon-Taubadel, 2022). To date, much of this research has been conceptual and (necessarily) speculative.…”

mentioning

confidence: 97%

“…To date, much of this research has been conceptual and (necessarily) speculative. Of the few empirical studies, Mottaleb et al (2022) and Ahn et al (2023) are the most relevant for our purposes. Mottaleb et al (2022) use historical data to derive elasticity relationships between global trade and country-level food consumption outcomes.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using these historical relationships, the authors simulate the potential impacts of the Russian invasion on global food security outcomes. Ahn et al (2023) conduct an ex-post assessment of the impacts of the Russian invasion on international agricultural trade flows and trade diversion patterns. To our knowledge, ours is the first research to use econometric modelling to explicitly distinguish the effects of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Economic impacts of the Black Sea Grain Initiative

Poursina,

Aleks Schaefer,

Hilburn

et al. 2023

J Agricultural Economics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this research, we use econometric analysis to estimate the impacts of the Black Sea Grain Initiative on international wheat and corn prices. Using these results, we assess the economic value of the treaty to the global food system, as well as the regional distribution of the associated welfare savings. We find that the Russian Invasion created economic costs of approximately $116.05 billion in the global wheat and corn markets. In the international wheat market, the Black Sea Grain Initiative reduced prices by 7.9%, offsetting approximately $21.48 billion of these costs. The largest winners from the Initiative outside Ukraine are primarily in the developing world, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa. We do not observe any economically meaningful impacts of the Initiative in the international corn market.

show abstract

Global container shipping disruptions, pop‐up ports, and US agricultural exports

Steinbach,

Zhuang

2023

Applied Eco Perspectives Pol

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper evaluates the impact of the Commodity Container Assistance Program on containerized agricultural exports from US ports. The program responded to logistical disruptions related to agricultural shipments from the ports of Oakland, Seattle, and Tacoma. Relying on counterfactual event study methods and detailed trade data, we find limited evidence of positive treatment effects after the program implementation. The average post‐event trade effect is 1.0%, leading to limited agricultural export gains of about $18.6 million per month between March and September 2022. These findings suggest that while the program was cost‐effective, it had limited success in facilitating US containerized agricultural exports.

show abstract

The impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on grain and oilseed trade

Cited by 31 publications

References 36 publications

Impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on grain and fertilizer supply: Evidence from Kenya

Impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on grain and fertilizer supply: Evidence from Kenya

Economic impacts of the Black Sea Grain Initiative

Global container shipping disruptions, pop‐up ports, and US agricultural exports

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About