Quantitative comparison of methods for predicting the arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth based on multiview imaging

Colaninno, R. C.; Vourlidas, A.; Wu, Chin‐Chun

doi:10.1002/2013ja019205

Cited by 92 publications

(138 citation statements)

References 75 publications

(111 reference statements)

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“…Observational studies have reported on the pre-eruptive phase of the eruption (e.g., Canou & Amari 2010; Vourlidas et al 2012;Syntelis et al 2016), the triggering of the eruptions (e.g., Zuccarello et al 2014;Chintzoglou et al 2015;Reeves et al 2015), and the propagation of the erupting structures in the interplanetary medium (e.g., Colaninno et al 2013) and toward the Earth (e.g., Patsourakos et al 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recurrent CME-like Eruptions in Emerging Flux Regions. I. On the Mechanism of Eruptions

Syntelis

Archontis

Tsinganos

2017

ApJ

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We report on three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of recurrent eruptions in emerging flux regions. We find that reconnection of sheared field lines, along the polarity inversion line of an emerging bipolar region, leads to the formation of a new magnetic structure, which adopts the shape of a magnetic flux rope (FR) during its rising motion. Initially, the FR undergoes a slow-rise phase and, eventually, it experiences a fast-rise phase and ejective eruption toward the outer solar atmosphere. In total, four eruptions occur during the evolution of the system. For the first eruption, our analysis indicates that the torus instability initiates the eruption and that tether-cutting reconnection of the field lines, which envelop the FR, triggers the rapid acceleration of the eruptive field. For the following eruptions, we conjecture that it is the interplay between tether-cutting reconnection and torus instability that causes the onset of the various phases. We show the 3D shape of the erupting fields, focusing more on how magnetic field lines reconnect during the eruptions. We find that when the envelope field lines reconnect mainly with themselves, hot and dense plasma is transferred closer to the core of the erupting FR.The same area appears to be cooler and less dense when the envelope field lines reconnect with neighboring sheared field lines. The plasma density and temperature distribution, together with the rising speeds, energies, and size of the erupting fields, indicate that they may account for small-scale (mini) coronal mass ejections.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recurrent CME-like Eruptions in Emerging Flux Regions. I. On the Mechanism of Eruptions

Syntelis

Archontis

Tsinganos

2017

ApJ

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“…CME acceleration/deceleration is directly observed in heliospheric images from the STEREO mission (e.g. Colaninno et al 2013).…”

Section: Prediction Of Icme Arrival Timesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While the only relevant observations for a long time were the CME observations in the corona and in situ measurements at 1 AU, the advent of heliospheric imaging with the STEREO mission enabled researchers in recent years to track CMEs from the Sun to the Earth (see the early review by Rouillard 2011). Heliospheric imaging was used by Colaninno et al (2013) to predict the arrival time of nine CMEs, using the graduated cylindrical shell model to remove projection effects. They employed different extrapolations of the height-time trajectory of the CME front beyond a heliocentric distance of 50 R and achieve a prediction of the shock arrival time near 1 AU within ±13 h for the entire event set, and within ±6 h for the seven (78%) best predictions.…”

Section: Comparison Of Radiative Proxies With Other Tools Of Icme Arrmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Microwave radio emissions as a proxy for coronal mass ejection speed in arrival predictions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections at 1 AU

Matamoros

Klein

Trottet

2017

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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The propagation of a coronal mass ejection (CME) to the Earth takes between about 15 h and several days. We explore whether observations of non-thermal microwave bursts, produced by near-relativistic electons via the gyrosynchrotron process, can be used to predict travel times of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from the Sun to the Earth. In a first step, a relationship is established between the CME speed measured by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (SoHO/LASCO) near the solar limb and the fluence of the microwave burst. This relationship is then employed to estimate speeds in the corona of earthward-propagating CMEs. These speeds are fed into a simple empirical interplanetary acceleration model to predict the speed and arrival time of the ICMEs at Earth. The predictions are compared with observed arrival times and with the predictions based on other proxies, including soft X-rays (SXR) and coronographic measurements. We found that CME speeds estimated from microwaves and SXR predict the ICME arrival at the Earth with absolute errors of 11 ± 7 and 9 ± 7 h, respectively. A trend to underestimate the interplanetary travel times of ICMEs was noted for both techniques. This is consistent with the fact that in most cases of our test sample, ICMEs are detected on their flanks. Although this preliminary validation was carried out on a rather small sample of events (11), we conclude that microwave proxies can provide early estimates of ICME arrivals and ICME speeds in the interplanetary space. This method is limited by the fact that not all CMEs are accompanied by non-thermal microwave bursts. But its usefulness is enhanced by the relatively simple observational setup and the observation from ground, which makes the instrumentation less vulnerable to space weather hazards.

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“…A review on its past, present and future may be found in Svalgaard (2013). However, for planetary space weather still more than for space weather, multi-point observations of the upstream solar wind, and the monitoring of the Sun from several vantage points are essential for properly predicting the impact of geoeffective events such as CMEs and SEPs Lugaz et al 2012;Colaninno et al 2013). These requirements apply equally to planetary space weather.…”

Section: A Need For Multi-point Observations Of the Solar Windmentioning

confidence: 99%

What characterizes planetary space weather?

Lilensten

Coates

Déhant

et al. 2014

Astron Astrophys Rev

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Space weather has become a mature discipline for the Earth space environment. With increasing efforts in space exploration, it is becoming more and more necessary to understand the space environments of bodies other than Earth. This is the background for an emerging aspect of the space weather discipline: planetary space weather. In this article, we explore what characterizes planetary space weather, using some examples throughout the solar system. We consider energy sources and timescales, the characteristics of solar system objects and interaction processes. We

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Quantitative comparison of methods for predicting the arrival of coronal mass ejections at Earth based on multiview imaging

Cited by 92 publications

References 75 publications

Recurrent CME-like Eruptions in Emerging Flux Regions. I. On the Mechanism of Eruptions

Recurrent CME-like Eruptions in Emerging Flux Regions. I. On the Mechanism of Eruptions

Microwave radio emissions as a proxy for coronal mass ejection speed in arrival predictions of interplanetary coronal mass ejections at 1 AU

What characterizes planetary space weather?

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