Quantitative Estimation and Spatiotemporal Characteristic Analysis of Price Deviation in China's Housing Market

Abstract

Differences in housing prices and rental prices across cities or regions and the relationship between prices and socioeconomic fundamentals are frequent research foci in urban and real estate economics, but the existing studies on China's housing market rarely consider both housing price and rent. This study provides a framework for a quantitative analysis of a country's housing market from the perspective of supply and demand, and takes China's housing market as a case study. The current study first explores the key factors that affect housing prices and rental prices using data from 202 cities and collected from 2011 to 2014. Then, theoretical values of housing prices and rental prices in each city are estimated, and the spatiotemporal characteristics of deviation of housing prices and rental prices are analysed. The empirical findings of the current study mainly reveal the following three points. First, the determinants of housing prices and rental prices have similarities. Second, the effect of above factors shows obvious spatial heterogeneity. The coefficients of the variables are different between coastal and inland regions, indicating different demand and supply elasticities across regions. Third, the price deviation presents significant spatial agglomeration. Cities with higher price deviations are clustered in the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, while the price deviations are relatively mild in the Pearl River Delta region.

Construction of a characteristic price model for urban real estate based on characteristic price models

“…Although bulk valuation techniques have been established and used for decades, however, domestic research on this valuation technique is still in its infancy [8][9]. In 2009, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation (SAT) issued a series of documents explicitly requesting provinces and municipalities to carry out the batch valuation of residential real estate in due course, but the current domestic batch appraisal work is mainly to meet the needs of the state to strengthen the taxation of real estate transactions [10][11]. The valuation model is mainly set using the characteristic price model, which easily leads to the problem of omitted variables in the bulk valuation of real estate, and the spatial autocorrelation of real estate prices is often not taken into account in the setting of the characteristic price model, which has a certain impact on the precision and accuracy of the assessment of house prices [12].…”

Dynamic and Heterogeneous Demand for Urban Green Space by Urban Residents: Evidence from the Cities in China

“…Prefecture-level cities in China are an ideal object to address the abovementioned issue, as they represent a wide range of city characteristics, which is a result of the development of China's real estate market [25,26]. In 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics of China reported an urbanization rate of 60.60%, which indicates that more than 60% of the population lives in urban areas.…”