The NERC and CEH trade marks and logos ('the Trademarks') are registered trademarks of NERC in the UK and other countries, and may not be used without the prior written consent of the Trademark owner. . Surprisingly, the models developed reveal that nutrient concentrations are not the primary explanatory variable; water colour and alkalinity were more important. However, given suitable environments (low colour, neutral-alkaline waters), cyanobacteria do increase with both increasing retention time and increasing TP concentrations, supporting the observations that cyanobacteria are one of the most visible symptoms of eutrophication, particularly in warm, dry summers. The models can contribute to the assessment of risks to public health, at a regional-to national level, helping target lake monitoring and management more cost-effectively at those lakes at highest risk of breaching World Health Organisation guideline levels for cyanobacteria in recreational waters. The models also inform restoration options available for reducing cyanobacterial blooms, indicating that, in the highest risk lakes (alkaline, low colour lakes), risks can generally be lessened through management aimed at reducing nutrient loads and increasing flushing during summer.