Quantitative validation and comparison of a range of forest growth model types

Pinjuv, Guy L.; Mason, Euan G.; Watt, Michael S.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2006.06.025

Cited by 58 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…Valentine and Mäkelä, 2005;Pinjuv et al, 2006;García-Quijano et al, 2005). An operative hybrid model study was conducted by Matala et al (2005Matala et al ( , 2006, who incorporated climate-change impacts from the process-based FinnFor model (Kellomäki et al, 1993) to the empirical MOTTI and MELA simulators (Hynynen et al, 2002).…”

Section: Hybrid Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation tools for decision support to adaptive forest management in Europe

Muys

Hynynen²,

Palahí

et al. 2010

For. syst.

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In forest management there is a tendency towards measuring more cost-effective and simulating more. In this context the development of reliable, user friendly forest simulators has become economically relevant. The objective of this perspective paper is to highlight the recent trends in forest simulation and to identify the remaining challenges to make forest simulation a reliable tool for forest policy and management.Experiences with forest simulators for various purposes in different geographical contexts illustrate how the important challenges of forest decision support can be addressed through flexible customization for different end-user categories, offering spatially explicit approaches at the landscape scale, and integrating empirical and mechanistic models in hybrid and bayesian simulation approaches.Recent development trends in forest simulation for decision support are mainly related to the ever increasing calculation speed and capacity of computers, facilitating the development of robust tools with comfortable user interface and realistic functions and options. Another trend is the combination of simulation tools with optimization and choice algorithms fading away the difference between simulators and decision support systems.The remaining challenges are basically in the high expectations of stakeholders concerning the ability of simulators to predict a range of outcomes in terms of ecosystem services and sustainability indicators, as well as the quality of their outcome in terms of output credibility to stakeholders. Need for accepted and realistic model validation and verification methods preferably using empirical data is crucial in this matter.Key words: multi-objective forest planning; forest model; simulator; decision support system; climate change. ResumenHerramientas de simulación para el apoyo de toma de decisiones en la gestión forestal adaptativa en Europa En la planificación de la gestión forestal existe la tendencia a medir menos y similar más. En este contexto, el desarrollo de simuladores forestales es económicamente relevante para el gestor. El objetivo de este artículo es el de discutir y enfatizar tendencias en el ámbito de la simulación forestal e identificar retos importantes para que la simulación forestal sea una herramienta fiable en el proceso decisorio de la planificación forestal y en el de desarrollo de *

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Section: Hybrid Simulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation tools for decision support to adaptive forest management in Europe

Muys

Hynynen²,

Palahí

et al. 2010

For. syst.

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“…Ideally, such validation should involve the use of an independent data set [55,63,100,103]. Moreover, variations in stand age and environmental factors must be included in the data set [13,81,94].…”

Section: Overall Evaluation Of the Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

A growth model for Pinus radiata D. Don stands in north-western Spain

2007

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-A dynamic whole-stand growth model for radiata pine (Pinus radiata D. Don) stands in north-western Spain is presented. In this model, the initial stand conditions at any point in time are defined by three state variables (number of trees per hectare, stand basal area and dominant height), and are used to estimate total or merchantable stand volume for a given projection age. The model uses three transition functions derived with the generalized algebraic difference approach (GADA) to project the corresponding stand state variables at any particular time. These equations were fitted using the base-age-invariant dummy variables method. In addition, the model incorporates a function for predicting initial stand basal area, which can be used to establish the starting point for the simulation. Once the state variables are known for a specific moment, a distribution function is used to estimate the number of trees in each diameter class by recovering the parameters of the Weibull function, using the moments of first and second order of the distribution. By using a generalized height-diameter function to estimate the height of the average tree in each diameter class, combined with a taper function that uses the above predicted diameter and height, it is then possible to estimate total or merchantable stand volume.whole-stand growth model / radiata pine plantations / generalized algebraic difference approach / basal area disaggregation / Galicia Résumé -Un modèle de croissance pour des peuplements de Pinus radiata D. Don du nord ouest de l'Espagne. Un modèle dynamique de croissance de peuplement est présenté pour Pinus radiata D. dans le nord ouest de l'Espagne. Dans ce modèle, les conditions initiales du peuplement en tout point et temps sont définies par trois variables d'état (nombre d'arbres à l'hectare, surface terrière et hauteur dominante) et sont utilisées pour estimer le volume total ou marchand du peuplement pour un âge donné. Le modèle utilise trois fonctions de transition dérivées avec une approche par différence algébrique généralisée (GADA) pour projeter les variables d'état correspondantes du peuplement à n'importe quel moment. Ces équations ont été ajustées en utilisant la méthode des variables indicatrices indépendantes de l'âge. En plus, le modèle incorpore une fonction de prédiction de la surface terrière initiale du peuplement qui peut être utilisée pour établir le point de départ de la simulation. Une fois que les variables d'état sont connues à un instant donné, une fonction de distribution est utilisée pour estimer le nombre d'arbres dans chaque classe de diamètre en récupérant les paramètres de la fonction de Weibull, en utilisant les moments de premier et de second ordre de la distribution. En utilisant une fonction généralisée hauteur-diamètre pour estimer la hauteur de l'arbre moyen de chaque classe de diamètre, combinée avec une fonction qui utilise la prédiction précédente du diamètre et de la hauteur, il est alors possible d'estimer le volume total ou marchand du peuplement. modèl...

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“…Previous model comparisons have looked at errors when models have been validated against common data (Weiskittel et al 2009a, Pinjuv et al 2006. However, as all available Scots pine data were utilised in parametrisation of SLeDG and 3PGN, a similar comparison was not possible.…”

Section: Model Comparison and Initiationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Through the combination, shortcomings of the empirical and process-based approaches may be ameliorated (Landsberg 2003, Monserud 2003, providing both traditional outputs for forest managers as well as estimates of carbon sequestration, whilst reducing the uncertainty in model outputs that occurs in complex process modelling (Valentine & Mäkelä 2005). Additionally, prediction precision may be improved by using a hybrid approach which can deal with changes in growing environment not represented in empirical models (Pinjuv et al 2006). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Secondly, forecasts of forest growth and standing carbon estimates of the SLeDG model are compared with those of the ForestYield package and the 3PGN model. Although versions of 3PG have previously been compared with other growth models (Pinjuv et al 2006, Weiskittel et al 2009a), the ForestYield model has not previously been compared to alternative modelling methods for forest carbon accounting. This therefore allows a comparison of the outputs of these forest growth models, as well as identifying the potential for improving the current methodology for stand level forest growth and carbon reporting estimations.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A comparison of models for quantifying growth and standing carbon in UK Scots pine forests

Lonsdale

Xenakis²,

Mencuccini

et al. 2015

iForest

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© iForest -Biogeosciences and Forestry IntroductionThe combination of both spatial scale and rotation length of forest stands mean that models of forest growth are essential for sustainable management (Blanco et al. 2008). Historically this has been achieved using yield models which use empirical relations between state variables such as top height, basal area, and number of stems to forecast stand development and timber volume production (Vanclay 1994). For example, in the UK there is widespread use of the yield tables of Edwards & Christie (1981) provided through a lookup package ForestYield. Increased emphasis on providing a multifunction forest resource (Nijnik & Mather 2007) has meant that such models have had to be applied to activities such as carbon storage reporting (Dyson et al. 2009). However, forest managers focusing on multi-function management are in turn more likely to deviate from management regimes aimed only at maximising timber production. Another shortcoming of such yield tables is that they fail to be linked causally to the drivers of productivity such as climate and nutrient availability, and are unable to account for changes in these drivers as might be expected in a changing climate (Monserud 2003). A shift to more flexible forest models is appropriate to accommodate for changes in environment or management objectives.Hybrid models combine both empirical and process based modelling approaches: using simple mathematical relationships between stand variables, and representations of the underlying ecophysiological processes in stand development respectively. Through the combination, shortcomings of the empirical and process-based approaches may be ameliorated (Landsberg 2003, Monserud 2003, providing both traditional outputs for forest managers as well as estimates of carbon sequestration, whilst reducing the uncertainty in model outputs that occurs in complex process modelling (Valentine & Mäkelä 2005). Additionally, prediction precision may be improved by using a hybrid approach which can deal with changes in growing environment not represented in empirical models (Pinjuv et al. 2006).There are a number of hybrid models which have been applied for varied species and locations globally (Valentine & Mäkelä 2005, Weiskittel et al. 2009a, Mason et al. 2011. Perhaps the most widely applied hybrid model is Physiological Principles Predicting Growth (3PG) developed by Landsberg & Waring (1997). It uses physiological principles as the basis for a relatively simple process-based model that can provide forest managers with stand variables as well as estimates of carbon fixation. The model works in three stages: derivation of primary production, partitioning the production to above and below ground portions, and derivation of output variables . . However, while 3PG has the potential to be used over large areas where it has not been calibrated (Almeida et al. 2010), it still requires a large number of parameters to be measured or estimated (both climatic and in the stand). This may increase both mode...

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Quantitative validation and comparison of a range of forest growth model types

Cited by 58 publications

References 10 publications

Simulation tools for decision support to adaptive forest management in Europe

Simulation tools for decision support to adaptive forest management in Europe

A growth model for Pinus radiata D. Don stands in north-western Spain

A comparison of models for quantifying growth and standing carbon in UK Scots pine forests

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