Quasi‐Stationary Intense Rainstorms Spread Across Europe Under Climate Change

Abstract

Under climate change, increases in precipitation extremes are expected due to higher atmospheric moisture. However, the total precipitation in an event also depends on the condensation rate, precipitation efficiency, and duration. Here, a new approach following an “ingredients‐based methodology” from severe weather forecasting identifies important aspects of the heavy precipitation response to climate change, relevant from an impacts perspective and hitherto largely neglected. Using 2.2 km climate simulations, we show that a future increase in precipitation extremes across Europe occurs, not only because of higher moisture and updraft velocities, but also due to slower storm movement, increasing local duration. Environments with extreme precipitation potential are 7× more frequent than today by 2100, while the figure for quasi‐stationary ones is 11× (14× for land). We find that a future reduction in storm speeds, possibly through Arctic Amplification, could enhance event accumulations and flood risk beyond expectations from studies focusing on precipitation rates.

Urbanization Exacerbated Rainfall Over European Suburbs Under a Warming Climate

“…A warming climate leads to increased atmospheric instability related to the increased holding‐capacity of water vapor content in the atmosphere (Allen & Ingram, 2012; Kahraman et al., 2021). The maximum convective available potential energy (CAPE) exceeding 1,200 J/kg shows a large spatial coverage under present‐day climate (i.e., the Warm‐NoUrban scenario), while there are only two “belts” of high‐CAPE under preindustrial climate conditions (i.e., the Cool‐NoUrban scenario, Figure S5 in Supporting Information ).…”

Orographic Precipitation Extremes: An Application of LUME (Linear Upslope Model Extension) over the Alps and Apennines in Italy

“…The effects of the flow convergence are more evident in the 2014, 2015, and 2019 events, where radar meteorological data were available [4,104]. Undoubtedly, the convergence can act positively on extreme precipitation generation, leading to the formation of regenerating (stationary) convective systems such as those spotted for the three events cited [17,31,51,111]. Moreover, flow convergence can provide the necessary fuel to strong convection formation that may be in principle enhanced if low-level jets are triggered, increasing air mixing within the BL [20,77,122].…”

“…Analysis of severe orographic precipitation represents a research frontier that is now further complicated by climate change [21,[30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38]. The recent evidence from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports [39][40][41] suggests that extreme rainfall is likely to increase, especially across those climate hot spots that represent areas across the world that will experience the most severe effects of climate change [40][41][42].…”

Beneficial and pathogenic plant‐microbe interactions during flooding stress

“…Flood events affect approximately 23% of the world population (Rentschler et al, 2021) and are steadily increasing since the 1950s in all continents (except Oceania; Planchet et al, 2017). Furthermore, flood intensity is expected to increase with ongoing climate change (Kahraman et al, 2021). The rising temperature creates warmer air masses that hold more water, which potentiates increasing frequency and magnitude of local precipitation extremes (Westra et al, 2014).…”

“…. Furthermore, flood intensity is expected to increase with ongoing climate change (Kahraman et al, 2021). The rising temperature creates warmer air masses that hold more water, which potentiates increasing frequency and magnitude of local precipitation extremes (Westra et al, 2014).…”