Race, Party, and Contested Elections to the U.S. House of Representatives

Illicit Tactics as Substitutes

“…Drawing on an informal argument by Green (2007), we formalize three considerations that affect a potential contestant's calculus over whether or not to contest a lost election: the value the congressional seat holds to him (B), the chance that he will succeed in winning the seat despite having lost (p), and the costs (C) in terms of time, money, and other resources that may be required to sustain a challenge. Drawing on an informal argument by Green (2007), we formalize three considerations that affect a potential contestant's calculus over whether or not to contest a lost election: the value the congressional seat holds to him (B), the chance that he will succeed in winning the seat despite having lost (p), and the costs (C) in terms of time, money, and other resources that may be required to sustain a challenge.…”

“…2 To accomplish this, we draw on a novel measure of election fraud based on charges of electoral misconduct filed with political authorities (Lehoucq, 2003). Although these contests have been used to examine partisanship in the House (Green, 2007;Jenkins, 2004Jenkins, , 2005, we extend the analysis of Bensel (2004), who used contests in a historical investigation of democratic norms and procedures in 19th-century elections. Although these contests have been used to examine partisanship in the House (Green, 2007;Jenkins, 2004Jenkins, , 2005, we extend the analysis of Bensel (2004), who used contests in a historical investigation of democratic norms and procedures in 19th-century elections.…”

“…Jenkins (2004) finds that disputed elections in the United States were used for partisan maneuvering in Congress, whereas Green (2007) finds that disputed elections were less likely after disenfranchisement laws had been adopted, and were more likely in districts with large Black populations. Jenkins (2004) finds that disputed elections in the United States were used for partisan maneuvering in Congress, whereas Green (2007) finds that disputed elections were less likely after disenfranchisement laws had been adopted, and were more likely in districts with large Black populations.…”

Partidos, competição política e fraude eleitoral: a tônica das eleições na Primeira República

“…Desta forma, Lehoucq (2003) estimou o peso da deturpação dos resultados das urnas sobre o corpo legislativo federal empossado na Costa Rica. Saída correlata foi escolhida por Green (2007) no julgamento da experiência norte-americana, por Ziblatt (2009) e Anderson (2000) no tratamento do caso alemão, por Kam (2007) no estudo da Inglaterra, por Charnay (1964) no levantamento da fraude na França ou por Andreucci (1995) na abordagem da Itália liberal, para citar alguns 28 . Para todos eles, a apresentação de uma contestação formal era tida como proxy da existência da fraude.…”

“…Como o interesse político por vezes condicionaria a decisão do que seria enquadrado enquanto corrupção eleitoral, dificilmente as informações disponíveis favoreceriam o rigor matemático (idem:124). Aliás, Green (2007) bem alerta: focar as contestações pode subestimar as ocorrências de fraude, visto que potenciais contestantes lidariam com a própria crítica subjetiva dos fatos antes de se decidirem pela apresentação ou não de uma contestação eleitoral 29 . Vê-se, no caso do Brasil republicano, a situação de São Paulo -estado cujas interposições de protestos eleitorais mostraremos ser diminutas, embora não caiba depreender desta baixa incidência ao recurso contestatório a ausência da fraude eleitoral, relatada mesmo em jornais de oposição na época.…”