Although a growing body of research has examined and found a positive relationship between neighborhood crime and home foreclosures, some research suggests this relationship may not hold in all cities. This study uses city-level data to assess the relationship between foreclosures and crime by estimating longitudinal models with lags for monthly foreclosure and crime data in 128 cities from 1996 to 2011 in Southern California. We test whether these effects are stronger in cities with a combination of high economic inequality and high economic segregation; and whether they are stronger in cities with high racial/ethnic heterogeneity and high racial segregation. One month, and cumulative three month, six month, and 12-month lags of foreclosures are found to increase city level crime for all crimes except motor vehicle theft. The effect of foreclosures on these crime types is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of inequality but low levels of economic segregation. The effect of foreclosures on aggravated assault, robbery, and burglary is stronger in cities with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and low levels of racial segregation. On the other hand, foreclosures had a stronger effect on larceny and motor vehicle theft when they occurred in a city with simultaneously high levels of racial heterogeneity and high levels of racial segregation. There is evidence that the foreclosure crisis had large scale impacts on cities, leading to higher crime rates in cities hit harder by foreclosures. Nonetheless, the economic and racial characteristics of the city altered this effect.Keywords: cities; crime; foreclosures; social distance; social capital; segregation.
Alyssa W. Chamberlain is an Assistant Professor in the School of Criminology and CriminalJustice at Arizona State University. Her research interests focus on the nexus between neighborhood dynamics and crime, more specifically, the spatial and temporal relationship between neighborhood structural characteristics, social inequality and crime and how those factors shape how neighborhoods change over time. She also examines issues related to prisoner reentry and corrections. Whereas recent studies have focused on the relationship between foreclosures and crime at the geographic level of neighborhoods, there are various reasons why the impact of foreclosures may be felt at even larger geographic units such as cities. For one thing, the large magnitude of the foreclosure crisis implies that entire cities may experience very high rates of foreclosures. If this is indeed the case, do these cities suffer a rise in the level of crime as a consequence? Furthermore, the larger city context within which neighborhoods are situated likely plays a critical role in determining how the community may respond to various economic and financial hardships (Logan and Molotch 1987), such as the housing crisis. This implies that certain cities may be better equipped to redress various social problems that may arise. For example, although foreclosures...