Radiological Risk Assessment by Convergence Methodology Model in RDD Scenarios

Rother, Fagner C.; Rebello, Wilson F.; Healy, Matthew J. F.; Silva, Mauricio M.; Cabral, Paulo A. M.; Vital, Hélio de Carvalho; Andrade, Edson R.

doi:10.1111/risa.12557

Cited by 23 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…The methodology is based on the convergence model, 5 which uses independent platforms in order to achieve a common goal. This work's purpose is to determine the ERR for the development of leukemia among individuals in a potentially affected population group.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Immediate decisions based on long-term consequence evaluation for a radiological event

Brum

Lima

Amorim

et al. 2020

Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation

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This validation study focuses on potential risks and subsequent challenges, such as family dismemberment due to the response to an off-site radiological release. Threats that may drive early decisions from a long-term perspective, such as cancer development, were discussed. In order to provide radiation doses, environmental measurements were performed by using a military helicopter. Such data was then inserted into the BEIR VII equations to evaluate the excess relative risk (ERR) of leukemia. However, there may be an issue in the initial phase of the response. Family dismemberment becomes practical due to the different radiation sensitiveness, which is a function of age and sex. Such a situation may arise from requirements posed both by the immediate response and future concerns (ERR). Evaluation of the results suggests that children and young women are more vulnerable than adults. A more detailed study focused on the most appropriate mathematical method to determine the moment in which family dismemberment, if necessary, should be conducted. This sensitive issue is very important during the early phase of the response due to the fact that it can greatly influence future decisions by anticipating possible consequences that have a large potential to influence the evolution of future costs.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Time becomes a crucial factor to reduce risk expectations and mitigate detriments. 5 Methods for evaluating environmental radiation should be designed on a case-by-case basis. A faster overall assessment, which can provide a good evaluation for radiation dose rate distribution across the contaminated area, is essential.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Immediate decisions based on long-term consequence evaluation for a radiological event

Brum

Lima

Amorim

et al. 2020

Journal of Defense Modeling & Simulation

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“…In the fi rst step, the HotSpot software was used to estimate the absorbed doses due to inhalation. The estimated doses were then inserted into the BEIR V equations for calculation of the ERR and the probability of causation (PC) for lung cancer incidence; this approach is addressed as convergence methodology [3].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The consequences of intense ionizing radiation regions can include interdiction of large areas where the access can be banned for relatively long periods due to the threat to public health. Typically, such scenarios involve a high degree of initial misinformation about the radiation source, its spatial distribution, as well as the possible paths of environmental transport of these contaminants [3,4].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost-effective approach to lung cancer risk for a radiological dispersal device (RDD) scenario

et al. 2019

Self Cite

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A release of radioactive material into the environment can lead to hazardous exposure of the population and serious future concerns about health issues such as an increased incidence of cancer. In this context, a practical methodology capable of providing useful basic information from the scenario can be valuable for immediate decisions and future risk assessment. For this work, the simulation of a radiological dispersal device (RDD) fi lled with americium-241 was considered. The radiation dose simulated by the HotSpot code was used as an input to the epidemiological equations from BEIR V producing the data used to assess the risk of lung cancer development. The methodology could be useful in providing training for responders aimed to the initial support addressed to decision-making for emergency response at the early phase of an RDD scenario. The results from the simulation allow estimating (a) the size of the potentially affected population, (b) the type of protection action considering gender and location of the individuals, (c) the absorbed doses, (d) the matrix of lung cancer incidence predictions over a period of 5 years, and (e) the cost-effectiveness in the initial decision environment.

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“…This weapon is de signed for spread ing ra dio ac tive ma te rial across an in hab ited area in a way that con sid er able re sources are needed to mit i gate its effects. An RDD can gen er ate dam ages, and po ten tial threats of so cial or i gin to the pub lic [1][2][3].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A modeled radiological dispersive device release and the impact to decision-making in an urban environment

Oliveira

Stenders

et al. 2020

NUCL TECH RAD PROT

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A radiological dispersion device is a weapon that combines radioactive material with conventional explosives for spreading radioactive material across an inhabited area. This study is focused on evaluating key parameters in an radiological dispersion device scenario. The calculations were performed to include two different situations: by using explosives and by simple mechanical release. Simulations were conducted with the use of the HotSpot Health Physics Codes. The results suggest the existence of significant correlations between stability classes in scenarios where they evolve with time, producing alternations between them. As long as the stability class remains constant, this latter finding offers the possibility of creating a suitable response, based on temporal evolutions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to: estimate the size of the potentially affected population, estimate absorbed doses, and estimate the cost-effectiveness in order to help initial responses by providing time-sensitive information about the event. A methodology capable of providing useful information allows prompt decisions and initial assessments of future risks to be made efficiently. This approach can also provide a training environment for the personnel responsible for the decision-making at an early stage of the response.

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Radiological Risk Assessment by Convergence Methodology Model in RDD Scenarios

Cited by 23 publications

References 11 publications

Immediate decisions based on long-term consequence evaluation for a radiological event

Immediate decisions based on long-term consequence evaluation for a radiological event

Cost-effective approach to lung cancer risk for a radiological dispersal device (RDD) scenario

A modeled radiological dispersive device release and the impact to decision-making in an urban environment

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