Rainfall shocks and agricultural productivity: Implication for rural household consumption

Amare, Mulubrhan; Jensen, Nathaniel D.; Shiferaw, Bekele; Cissé, Jennifer Denno

doi:10.1016/j.agsy.2018.07.014

Cited by 124 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…Besides the aforementioned factors, the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity should not be ignored. With agricultural production dependent mainly on rainfall, the effects of abnormal rainfall patterns, whether shortages and excesses, and increase in temperature affect agricultural production and productivity in sub-Saharan Africa (Shiferaw et al 2014;Belloumi 2014;Kassie et al 2014;Fisher et al 2015;Rippke et al 2016;Powlson et al 2016;Amare et al 2018a;Cooper et al 2019). The adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production can have negative effects on household food security and child nutrition outcomes through several pathways, including reduced yields, shifts in economic incentives, increases in food prices, changes in employment opportunities, changes in sources and distribution of income, and changes in the nutritional content of foods (Chijioke et al 2011;Belloumi 2014;Cooper et al 2019).…”

Section: Linkages Between Agricultural Productivity Change and Nutritmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of agriculture in reducing child undernutrition in Nigeria

Amare¹,

Balana²,

Ogunniyi³

2020

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This study examines the effect of agricultural productivity change on child nutritional outcomes in Nigeria. Using several waves of micro-level panel data from Nigeria, we first show that high temperature (heat stress) reduces agricultural productivity change. A one percent increase in high temperatures during the crop growth period result in a 4 percent decrease in agricultural productivity. More importantly, our analysis provides several important insights on the implications of agricultural productivity change for reducing child undernutrition. The results show that agricultural productivity growth has a positive effect on child nutritional outcomes, measured by child height-forage and weight-forage. The main channel through which agricultural productivity growth affects child nutritional outcomes is by increasing food production for own household consumption. This suggests that productivity-enhancing investments in the agricultural sector could have a direct impact on child nutritional outcomes among smallholder households in Nigeria. The results also show that agricultural productivity change has higher impact for households who have better access to markets and a higher educational level. Interventions and policies geared towards intensification of agricultural production need to be complemented with strategies for widening educational programs and improving farmers' access to markets. to induce incentives for increased production.

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Section: Linkages Between Agricultural Productivity Change and Nutritmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of agriculture in reducing child undernutrition in Nigeria

Amare¹,

Balana²,

Ogunniyi³

2020

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“…for India;Bengtsson [2010] for Tanzania;Amare et al [2018] for Nigeria). Nevertheless, in order to test whether our estimated effect operates through agricultural production, we have included in the regressions of rainfall deviations measured outside the agricultural season, which should exert no effect on schooling and work decisions.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Role of Weather on Schooling and Work of Young Adults in Madagascar

Marchetta

Sahn

Tiberti³

2019

American J Agri Economics

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We examine the impact of rainfall variability and cyclones on schooling and work among a cohort of teens and young adults in Madagascar. We estimate a bivariate probit model using a panel survey conducted in 2004 and 2011 in this poor island nation, which is frequently affected by extreme weather events. Our results show that negative rainfall deviations and cyclones reduce the probability of attending school and encourage young men and, to a greater extent, women to enter the work force, and they reduce their French and math test scores. Less wealthy households are most likely to experience this school-to-work transition in the face of rainfall shocks. The finding is consistent with poorer households having less savings and more limited access to credit and insurance, which reduces their ability to cope with rainfall shortages. We also find that there are both contemporaneous and lagged effects of the weather shocks, and that they are of a similar magnitude. Our findings are robust to the use of a linear probability model, as well as a wide range of definitions of rainfall variations.

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“…Long‐term precipitation data came from the daily Africa Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center (NOAA‐CPC) summed be 10‐day period and corrected for possible missing daily values (Novella & Thiaw, 2013). Satellite‐based long‐term precipitation data is a better option than gauge measurements as satellite‐based precipitation data are less likely to suffer from classical or nonclassical measurement errors caused by the sparseness and number of operating gauge stations (Amare et al., 2018; Björkman‐Nyqvist, 2013; Brückner & Ciccone, 2011; Macinni & Yang, 2009; Rocha & Soares, 2015). The rainfall season typically extends from early May through late October for northern Nigeria and from early March through October for southern Nigeria.…”

Section: Data Sources and Summary Statistics Of Key Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda

Amare

Shiferaw

Takeshima

et al. 2021

Agricultural Economics

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This paper uses multiple rounds of panel data to assess the distributional implications of the variability in agricultural productivity in Nigeria and Uganda. It uses both a conventional decomposition and a regression‐based inequality decomposition approach to estimate the impact of climate‐induced variability in agricultural productivity. To mitigate the endogeneity associated with unobserved time‐invariant and time‐variant household fixed effects, we use rainfall shocks as a proxy for estimating the exogenous variability in agricultural productivity that affects consumption. Results suggest that a 10% increase in the variability of agricultural productivity tends to decrease household consumption by 38 and 52% on average for Nigeria and Uganda, respectively. Controlling for other factors, variability in agricultural productivity contributed to between 25% and 43% of consumption inequality between 2010 and 2015 for Nigeria; and 16% and 31% of consumption inequality between 2009 and 2011 for Uganda. We also show that variability in agricultural productivity increases changes in consumption inequality over time.

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Rainfall shocks and agricultural productivity: Implication for rural household consumption

Cited by 124 publications

References 42 publications

The role of agriculture in reducing child undernutrition in Nigeria

The role of agriculture in reducing child undernutrition in Nigeria

The Role of Weather on Schooling and Work of Young Adults in Madagascar

Variability in agricultural productivity and rural household consumption inequality: Evidence from Nigeria and Uganda

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