Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data

Pan, Huali; Jiang, Yuanjun; Wang, Jun; Ou, Guoqiang

doi:10.5194/nhess-18-1395-2018

Cited by 37 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…The differences between the mechanism and statistic model are due to the influence of environmental conditions. Although there was a simple relationship between rainfall intensity and debris flow event [68], other environmental factors, including topography, soil, and land use, are also significant drivers of debris flow [69][70][71]. Different watersheds might offer sufficient conditions to In Figure 6, different vulnerability elements were mainly explained by the GDP, population, and road density, indicating the effects of socio-economic development on debris risk at a watershed scale.…”

Section: Debris Flow Process Models Enhance Susceptibility Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water–Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China

Wang

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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Risk assessment lays a foundation for disaster risk reduction management, especially in relation to climate change. Intensified extreme weather and climate events driven by climate change may increase related disaster susceptibility. This may interact with exposed and vulnerable socioeconomic systems to aggravate the impacts and impede progress towards regional development. In this study, debris flow risk under climate change was assessed by an integrated debris flow mechanism model and an inclusive socioeconomic status evaluation. We implemented the method for a debris flow-prone area in the eastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. Based on the analysis of three general circulation models (GCMs)-Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1 (BCC_CSM), model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate-Earth System, version 5 (MIROC5, and the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4)-the water-soil process model was applied to assess debris flow susceptibility. For the vulnerability evaluation, an index system established from the categories of bearing elements was analyzed by principle component analysis (PCA) methods. Our results showed that 432 to 1106 watersheds (accounting for 23% to 52% of the study area) were identified as debris-flow watersheds, although extreme rainfall would occur in most of the area from 2007 to 2060. The distributions of debris flow watersheds were concentrated in the north and transition zones of the study area. Additionally, the result of the index and PCA suggested that most areas had relatively low socioeconomic scores and such areas were considered as high-vulnerability human systems (accounts for 91%). Further analysis found that population density, road density, and gross domestic production made great contributions to vulnerability reduction. For practical mitigation strategies, we suggested that the enhancement of road density may be the most efficient risk reduction strategy.

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Section: Debris Flow Process Models Enhance Susceptibility Evaluationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water–Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China

Wang

et al. 2019

Sustainability

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“…In this research, the exceedance of rainfall to specific threshold is used to judge the risk level in grid basis using the predicted rainfall. Until recently, the debris flow early warning system primarily uses rainfall threshold (Pan et al, 2018). Figure 2 shows the threshold line for debris in Boyong Rivers in one control point from Mananoma and Wardoyo (2008) and black broken line from last five years observation.…”

Section: Prediction Of Debris Vulnerability Through Risk Mappingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rainfall Information System Based on Weather Radar for Debris Flow Disaster Mitigation

Hapsari¹,

Aponno²,

Asmara³

et al. 2018

IJET

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Rainfall-triggered debris flow has caused multiple impacts to the environment. It. is regarded as the most severe secondary hazards of volcanic eruption. However, limited access to the active volcano slope restricts the ground rain measurement as well as the direct delivery of risk information. In this study, an integrated information system is proposed for volcanic-related disaster mitigation under the framework of X-Plore/X-band Polarimetric Radar for Prevention of Water Disaster. In the first part, the acquisition and processing of high-resolution X-band dual polarimetric weather/X-MP radar data in real-time scheme for demonstrating the disaster-prone region are described. The second part presents the design of rainfall resource database and extensive maps coverage of predicted hazard information in GIS web-based platform accessible both using internet and offline. The proposed platform would be useful for communicating the disaster risk prediction based on weather radar in operational setting.

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“…South Korea forecasts landslides and debris flows by analyzing rainfall and basin characteristics and using models to calculate the triggering factors. With the current advancement in radar technologies, studies are continuously conducted for predictions using radar data [10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19]. Therefore, the study attempted to establish a method that considers rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall not as an independent factor but a function.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of Korean Nomograms for Forecasting and Alerting Debris Flows Based on Critical Accumulated Rainfall

Nam¹,

Lee²,

Kim³

2019

Preprint

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Ongoing climate change causes abnormal climate events worldwide such as increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. With South Korea facing growing damage from the increased frequency of localized heavy rains, the country is not an exception. In particular, its steep slope lands, including mountainous areas, are vulnerable to damage from landslides and debris flows. In addition, localized short-term heavy rains that occur in urban areas with extremely high intensity tend to lead a sharp increase in damage from soil-related disasters and cause huge losses of life and property. Currently, South Korea predicts landslides and debris flows using the standards for forecasting landslides and heavy rains. However, as the forecasting is conducted separately for rainfall intensity and accumulated rainfall, this lacks a technique that reflects both amount and intensity of rainfall in an episode of localized heavy rainfall. This study, therefore, aims to develop such a technique by collecting past cases of debris flow occurrences and rainfall events that accompanied debris flows to calculate the rainfall triggering index (RTI) reflecting accumulated rainfall and rainfall intensity. In addition, the RTI is converted into the critical accumulated rainfall (Rc) to use precipitation information and provide real-time forecasting. The study classifies the standards for flow debris forecasting into three levels: ALERT (10%–50%), WARNING (50%–70%), and EMERGENCY (70% or higher), to provide a nomogram for 6 hr, 12 hr, and 24 hr. As a result of applying this classification into the actual cases of Seoul, Chuncheon, and Cheongju, it is found that about 2–4 hr of response time is secured from the point of the Emergency level to the occurrence of debris flows.

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Rainfall threshold calculation for debris flow early warning in areas with scarcity of data

Cited by 37 publications

References 62 publications

Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water–Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China

Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water–Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China

Rainfall Information System Based on Weather Radar for Debris Flow Disaster Mitigation

Development of Korean Nomograms for Forecasting and Alerting Debris Flows Based on Critical Accumulated Rainfall

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