Rainfall Variability and Trend Analysis of Annual Rainfall in North Africa

Nouaceur, Zeineddine; Murărescu, Ovidiu

doi:10.1155/2016/7230450

Cited by 65 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…As to what concerns the Mediterranean area, these findings agree with the results of other researchers, who evidenced a clear tendency towards drier conditions of the eastern Mediterranean and negative trends, thus not always significant, in the total rainfall amounts in the western and The results of the present study also confirm past local studies on Europe and Africa, which highlighted relatively large positive trends in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and high latitudes and a negative one in the subtropics (e.g. New et al 2001;Nouaceur & Mur arescu 2016;Deitch et al 2017). These results also agree with other local studies in the Mediterranean region which evidenced a reduction in precipitation and an increase in the mean and largest dry periods (Nastos & Zerefos 2009;Cindrić et al 2010;S anchez et al 2011;Liuzzo et al 2016;Montaldo & Sarigu 2017).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Long‐term precipitation trend analysis in Europe and in the Mediterranean basin

Caloiero

Frustaci

2018

Water & Environment J

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The spatiotemporal analysis of a region's precipitation climate regime could be particularly interesting for many fields of applied sciences, such as climatology, hydrology and water resources management. In this study, the precipitation trends at seasonal and annual scale, over a large area of the northern Hemisphere have been analysed based on a globally gridded precipitation data sets of monthly observations. In particular, among the several data sets available in literature, with spatial resolutions of 0.5° longitude/latitude, in this work the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Full Data Reanalysis Version 6 data set has been used. The broad extension of the area under investigation allowed a better understanding of trend precipitation patterns over space. In fact, yearly results evidenced a marked negative rainfall tendency in the eastern Mediterranean (more than −20 mm/10 years) and in North Africa (until −16 mm/10 years), while a relatively large positive trend (more than 20 mm/10 years) in central and northern Europe has been observed.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 93%

Long‐term precipitation trend analysis in Europe and in the Mediterranean basin

Caloiero

Frustaci

2018

Water & Environment J

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“…In Africa, a gradual return to wetter conditions is observed in Sahelian and Soudanian areas since the 1990s [2]. The same situation is reported since early 2000s across Algeria and Tunisia and from 2008 in Morocco by Nouaceur et al [3]. There are contrasting trends throughout seasonal variations of rainfall.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 55%

Change in Climate Extremes and Pan Evaporation Influencing Factors over Ouémé Delta in Bénin

Houngue

Lawin

Moumouni³

et al. 2018

Climate

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This work focuses on trend analysis of rainfall, evaporation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration over the Ouémé Delta in Bénin. Eight temperature based indices and fifteen rainfall based indices are computed from 1960 to 2016. Moreover, maximum 1, 2, 3, 5, and 10 days precipitation indices were computed at the monthly scale. Trends are detected at 0.05 confidence level, using a combination of Mann-Kendall and prewhitened Mann-Kendall test. Partial correlation and stepwise regression are used to detect the set of meteorological variables that influence pan evaporation in Ouémé Delta. Results showed intensification of heavy rainfall over Ouémé Delta. Moreover, a significant increasing trend is detected in temperature. As consequence, diurnal temperature significantly decreases as proof of the global warming. Average pan evaporation showed a significant slither increasing trend over the area. Change in pan evaporation can be explained by wind speed and sunshine duration that hold almost 50% of pan evaporation variance. As future temperature is going to be increasing, pan evaporation may increase considerably. So, adaptation measures have to be reinforced in the Ouémé Delta area where farmer are used to rainfed agriculture for food security. Moreover, Ouémé Delta plan have to be developed for it resources sustainability.

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“…Along with the decrease in rainfall during the wet season, wintertime drying has been observed over large parts of western North Africa at least since the 1970s (Hertig and Tramblay 2017;Tramblay et al 2013a;Zittis 2018). However, some wet years observed since the 2000s can be attributed to increased climate variability (Donat et al 2013;Nouaceur and Murărescu 2016). With respect to heavy rainfall events, most parts of North Africa show no significant trends over the last decades (Nashwan et al 2019;Nasri et al 2016;Tramblay et al 2012), while a general increase in drought frequency can be observed in all countries (see Hertig and Tramblay 2017 and Table 1).…”

Section: Exposure To Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change vulnerability, water resources and social implications in North Africa

et al. 2020

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North Africa is considered a climate change hot spot. Existing studies either focus on the physical aspects of climate change or discuss the social ones. The present article aims to address this divide by assessing and comparing the climate change vulnerability of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia and linking it to its social implications. The vulnerability assessment focuses on climate change exposure, water resources, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results suggest that all countries are exposed to strong temperature increases and a high drought risk under climate change. Algeria is most vulnerable to climate change, mainly due to the country's high sensitivity. Across North Africa, the combination of climate change and strong population growth is very likely to further aggravate the already scarce water situation. The so-called Arab Spring has shown that social unrest is partly caused by unmet basic needs of the population for food and water. Thus, climate change may become an indirect driver of social instability in North Africa. To mitigate the impact of climate change, it is important to reduce economic and livelihood dependence on rain-fed agriculture, strengthen sustainable land use practices, and increase the adaptive capacity. Further, increased regional cooperation and sub-national vulnerability assessments are needed.

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Rainfall Variability and Trend Analysis of Annual Rainfall in North Africa

Cited by 65 publications

References 23 publications

Long‐term precipitation trend analysis in Europe and in the Mediterranean basin

Long‐term precipitation trend analysis in Europe and in the Mediterranean basin

Change in Climate Extremes and Pan Evaporation Influencing Factors over Ouémé Delta in Bénin

Climate change vulnerability, water resources and social implications in North Africa

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