Range and severity of a plant disease increased by global warming

Abstract

Climate change affects plants in natural and agricultural ecosystems throughout the world but little work has been done on the effects of climate change on plant disease epidemics. To illustrate such effects, a weather-based disease forecasting model was combined with a climate change model predicting UK temperature and rainfall under high-and low-carbon emissions for the 2020s and 2050s. Multi-site data collected over a 15-year period were used to develop and validate a weather-based model forecasting severity of phoma stem canker epidemics on oilseed rape across the UK. This was combined with climate change scenarios to predict that epidemics will not only increase in severity but also spread northwards by the 2020s. These results provide a stimulus to develop models to predict the effects of climate change on other plant diseases, especially in delicately balanced agricultural or natural ecosystems. Such predictions can be used to guide policy and practice in adapting to effects of climate change on food security and wildlife.

North–South divide: contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England

“…The increase in temperature associated with climate change may increase the severity of crop disease epidemics (Evans et al 2008). The most important oilseed rape disease in the UK is phoma stem canker (Leptosphaeria maculans), which causes severe losses each year despite expenditure of more than £12 million on fungicides .…”

“…Globally, losses from phoma stem canker exceed £500 million per season . Although phoma stem canker currently causes severe epidemics on winter oilseed rape in France (latitude 42-518 N; Fitt et al 2006) and England (latitude 50-558 N), the disease does not cause yield loss further north, in Scotland (latitude 55 -598 N; Evans et al 2008). Although the initial phoma leaf spotting phase of the disease (West et al 2001) occurs in autumn in all these regions, colder winters in Scotland mean that L. maculans is unable to spread along the leaf petiole and colonize the stem rapidly enough to cause damaging cankers (Evans et al 2008).…”

Robust cropping systems to tackle pests under climate change. A review

“…In addition, this pattern of climate change factors is not equally distributed over the globe. It is anticipated that a general shift of a milder climate toward the poles will improve the potential of crop production Evans et al 2008). By contrast, hotter and drier conditions in many already semi-arid areas of the world will limit the possibilities for agriculture (Luo et al 2009).…”

Using Green <I>Vaccination</I> to Brighten the Agronomic Future

“…Importantly, climate change is expected to have a profound impact on global agriculture in the next decades. Apart from changes in water availability, temperature, and soil degradation, it is expected that climate change will also have indirect consequences such as more frequent outbreaks of some plant diseases and/or pests (Evans et al, 2008), partially due to changes in the plant's defensive capacity . In addition to the selection of resistant crop varieties and crop rotation, the use of pesticides represents an effective strategy against these threats.…”