Rapid aggregation of global gridded crop model outputs to facilitate cross-disciplinary analysis of climate change impacts in agriculture

Villoria, Nelson B.; Elliott, Joshua; Müller, Christoph; Shin, Jaewoo; Zhao, Lan; Song, Carol X.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.10.016

Cited by 41 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…For example, in 2050 large difference between baseline and low stabilization scenario can be observed in all regions, with the largest difference (20% points) in the EIT region (results based on [38]). Regional differences are also prominent when comparing the production of major stable crops over the 21st century between a baseline and a low-stabilization scenario [39,40]. While generally climate impacts reduce yields, for some regions, production is expected to be higher in baseline than in low stabilization scenarios.…”

Section: Further Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

Jakob

Steckel

2016

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

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Section: Further Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

Jakob

Steckel

2016

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…We exploit a library of gridded climate impact results on agricultural productivity based on the Global Gridded Crop Model (GGCM) intercomparison project (Elliott et al., ; Rosenzweig et al., ; Villoria et al., ; https://mygeohub.org/tools/agmip). It provides a comprehensive evaluation of the disaggregated, global productivity impacts stemming from climate change.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The research cost of adapting agriculture to climate change: A global analysis to 2050

Baldos

Fuglie

Hertel

2020

Agricultural Economics

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Investments in agricultural research and development (R&D) made over the next few decades will likely prove critical in offsetting adverse climate change impacts on the global food system. In this study, we offer cost estimates of public R&D‐led adaptation to climate change grounded in an explicit framework relating the flow of annual R&D expenditures to building knowledge capital and thereby raising productivity in agriculture. Our research uses a comprehensive collection of historical public agricultural R&D expenditure and a literature review of elasticity estimates linking knowledge stocks to agricultural productivity growth for key world regions. Given climate‐driven crop yield projections generated from extreme combinations of crop and global circulation models, we find that offsetting crop yield losses projected by climate and crop models over 2006–2050 would require increased R&D adaptation investments of between $187 billion and $1,384 billion (in 2005 $PPP) if we invest between 2020 and 2040. This is 16–118% higher than global R&D investment if present spending trends continue. Although these costs are significant, worldwide R&D‐led climate adaptation could offer favorable economic returns. Moreover, R&D‐led adaptation could deliver gains in food security and environmental sustainability by mitigating food price increases and slowing cropland expansion.

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“…Diversification in this sense could mean 'combining varied types of production (crop, forest, fish and animal) in diverse ways, increasing the number of different species, populations, varieties or breeds, and also increasing the use of materials that are genetically diverse such as crop multiline' (FAO, 2015c).Making changes in farm management practices such as employing novel tillage practices may help minimize exposure of the topsoil to air, and this reduces evaporation, improves soil moisture characteristics and reduces the sensitivity of crops to heat and drought. Villoria et al, (2016) also found that adaptive changes in crop management practices have led to an increase in the crop by about seven percent to fifteen Vol 7 Issue10 DOI No. : 10.24940/theijhss/2019/v7/i10/HS1910-093 October, 2019 percent averagely, though theresults are highly dependent on the type of crop being considered and region.…”

Section: The Effectiveness Of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Anmentioning

confidence: 98%

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Adopted by Smallholder Farmers and Its Effects on Food Security at Anloga in the Volta Region of Ghana, West Africa

Amenuvor¹

2019

theijhss

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1. Introduction and Background Agriculture remains a significant part of the economies of countries around the world as it contributes to national gross domestic product (GDP), foreign exchange earnings, and food security. However, despite these contributions, the agricultural sector globally, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, is besieged with many challenges, paramount among them being climate change-related factors such as irregular rainfall patterns, increasing temperature, the incidence of droughts, and decreasing soil fertility. Further changes are expected in agricultural production, prices, and infrastructure due to climate change which may, in turn, limit the amount and quality of food produced. In line with nutrition in a family, inappropriate or too little food could adversely affect the health of people and maybe attributed to additional changes in global climate such as increasing temperature, floods or droughts which are threatening human physical and psychological circumstances. In the end, the poor in society especially those in the Least Developed Countries are likely to have little access to healthy, nutritious food which would lead to poor health status and lower labor productivity. These two factors according to a 2005 report by the FAO contributes to a continuous vicious cycle of poverty and malnutrition (FAO 2005). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC (2007) defined climate change as 'any change in climate over time which arises as a result of both human activity and natural variability'. Its impacts are being felt by many people and ecosystems and have the potential to cripple the drive for sustainable growth and development globally (World Bank, 2008). Climate change according to Adger et al., (2003) is evident in increased temperatures, reduced precipitation, frequent droughts and scarcity of water. According to IPCC (2007), Africa is expected to experience the highest levels of warming with some countries, Ghana inclusive, also experiencing a decline in rainfall. These are expected to have adverse effects on agricultural production. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)of the United Nations (UN) defined food security at the World Food Summit in 1996 as 'when all people, at all times have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life'. Components of food security according to the FAO include ample food production, the socioeconomic issues surrounding food availability, or the ability to translate hunger into an economic demand for food and to have access to nutritious effectively, safe and culturally preferred foods. Therefore, on both the supply side in terms of production and the demand side in terms of being able to trade for food, the stability of food systems is important. Food security includes the production of food, trading of food, the nutritive value of food, and also how individuals and countries maintain access to food overtime periods in the face of chall...

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Rapid aggregation of global gridded crop model outputs to facilitate cross-disciplinary analysis of climate change impacts in agriculture

Cited by 41 publications

References 14 publications

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

The research cost of adapting agriculture to climate change: A global analysis to 2050

Climate Change Adaptation Strategies Adopted by Smallholder Farmers and Its Effects on Food Security at Anloga in the Volta Region of Ghana, West Africa

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