Rapid source inversions of the 2023 SE Türkiye earthquakes with teleseismic and strong-motion data

Xu, Chenyu; Zhang, Yong; Hua, Sibo; Zhang, Xu; Xu, Lisheng; Chen, Yun-Tai; Taymaz, Tuncay

doi:10.1016/j.eqs.2023.05.004

Cited by 12 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…The slow convergence to a stable value for the magnitude estimation is likely due to low energy release during the initial phase of the rupture process, as it confirmed by the moment rate functions determined by different authors 11,16 , showing a slow growth of the moment rate function, and reaching the peak value (corresponding to a 𝑴 𝑾 7.8) only 60 seconds after the origin time.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 56%

Retrospective Performance Analysis of a Shaking-Forecast Based Early-Warning Method for the 2023 Türkiye-Syria Mw 7.8 Earthquake

Zollo,

Rea,

Colombelli

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Recently developed earthquake early warning systems rely on the idea of combining the measured ground motion and the source parameter estimate to issue an alert based on the ground shaking prediction at sites where high potential damage is expected. Here we apply a P-wave, shaking-forecast method that can track and alert in real-time the area where peak ground motion is expected to exceed a user-set threshold during the earthquake. The system performance in providing a fast and reliable warning during the Mw 7.8, February 6 Turkey-Syria earthquake is investigated by the real-time simulated playback of the near-source hundred accelerograms. With an instrumental intensity threshold I_MM=IV an alert issued 10-20 seconds after the event origin, results in 95% of successful warning (positive and negative) and lead-times of 10-60 seconds within the potential damage zone. Setting a higher intensity threshold requires larger alert times (50-60 seconds) to achieve 90% of successful warning and overall shorter lead-times. Our simulation shows that the P-wave predicted, strong-shaking zone can be rapidly detected only 20 seconds after the mainshock nucleation. As the time increases, it well delineates the NE-SW bi-lateral rupture development as inferred by kinematic source models.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 56%