Re-evaluating safety risks of multifunctional dikes with a probabilistic risk framework

Marijnissen, Richard; Kok, Matthijs; Kroeze, Carolien; Loon-Steensma, J.M. van

doi:10.5194/nhess-2018-295

Cited by 4 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The fragility curves show the failure probability conditional to the water level Pf|h as function of the free crest height Rc, defined as the height difference between the water level and the dike height. A steep fragility curve means that the failure probability has a high predictability (Marijnissen et al, 2019). In this study, the steepness is related to the amount of wave overtopping.…”

Section: Fragility Curvesmentioning

confidence: 85%

“…As a first step to include damages in safety assessments, we need to know how damages affect the failure probability by wave overtopping. The failure probability by wave overtopping is often calculated based on the average overtopping discharge, where the dike cover fails once the maximum allowable overtopping discharge is exceeded (EurOtop, 2018;Marijnissen et al, 2019;Vuik et al, 2018). These methods are not suitable for the failure probabilities of damages because of two reasons.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

The Vulnerability of Damaged River and Lake Dikes for Wave Overtopping

Bergeijk¹,

Verdonk²,

Warmink³

et al. 2021

Science and Practice for an Uncertain Future

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Wave overtopping results in erosion of grass-covered flood defenses which can result in a dike breach. Damages to the dike cover decrease the cover strength and simultaneously increase the hydraulic load on the dike cover. Therefore, damages on the dike cover are vulnerable locations for wave overtopping failure. In this study, the failure probabilities of different types of damages are calculated and compared to the failure probability of a regular dike profile to determine the vulnerability of damages for wave overtopping. The method is applied to a river and lake dike where the model results show that the total failure probability is smaller on the crest and upper slope for the lake dike and higher on the lower slope and at the inner toe. The failure probability increases between a factor 4 and 14 for damaged location where the cover still contains grass vegetation. However, lake dikes are more vulnerable for damages compared to lake dikes in cases where only a bare clay cover is left. In that case, a dike with a damage is almost 3000 more likely to fail compared to a regular dike for a lake dike and around 120 times more likely to fail for a river dike.

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Section: Fragility Curvesmentioning

confidence: 85%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Vulnerability of Damaged River and Lake Dikes for Wave Overtopping

Bergeijk¹,

Verdonk²,

Warmink³

et al. 2021

Science and Practice for an Uncertain Future

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Firstly, extending flood hazard to flood risk of the protected land would provide insight into the costs of the measures in relation to the avoided losses in the case of inundation of the protected land. For this, the failure probability of the embankment should be assessed (Marijnissen et al, 2019) as part of a full flood risk assessment (Vrijling, 2001). Secondly, the altered flow patterns from the measures will give a morphologic response over time in the floodplain and in the main channel.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards multi-objective optimization of large-scale fluvial landscaping measures

Straatsma

Fliervoet

Kabout

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Adapting densely populated deltas to the combined impacts of climate change and socioeconomic developments presents a major challenge for their sustainable development in the 21st century. Decisions for the adaptations require an overview of cost and benefits and the number of stakeholders involved, which can be used in stakeholder discussions. Therefore, we quantified the trade-offs of common measures to compensate for an increase in discharge and sea level rise on the basis of relevant, but inexhaustive, quantitative variables. We modeled the largest delta distributary of the Rhine River with adaptation scenarios driven by (1) the choice of seven measures, (2) the areas owned by the two largest stakeholders (LS) versus all stakeholders (AS) based on a priori stakeholder preferences, and (3) the ecological or hydraulic design principle. We evaluated measures by their efficiency in flood hazard reduction, potential biodiversity, number of stakeholders as a proxy for governance complexity, and measure implementation cost. We found that only floodplain lowering over the whole study area can offset the altered hydrodynamic boundary conditions; for all other measures, additional dike raising is required. LS areas comprise low hanging fruits for water level lowering due to the governance simplicity and hydraulic efficiency. Natural management of meadows (AS), after roughness smoothing and floodplain lowering, represents the optimum combination between potential biodiversity and flood hazard lowering, as it combines a high potential biodiversity with a relatively low hydrodynamic roughness. With this concept, we step up to a multidisciplinary, quantitative multi-parametric, and multi-objective optimization and support the negotiations among stakeholders in the decision-making process.

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“…Firstly, extending flood hazard to flood risk of the protected land would provide insight in the costs of the measures in relation to the avoided loss in case of a dike breaching flood. For this the failure probability of the embankment should be assessed (Marijnissen et al, 2018) as part of a full flood risk assessment (Vrijling, 2001). Secondly, the altered flow patterns from the measures will give a morphologic response over time in the floodplain and in the main channel.…”

Section: Interactive Commentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Final response to R3

Straatsma¹

2018

Preprint

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There are many aspects of the processes reported in this manuscript that resonate deeply with my experience working with government agencies and stakeholders in floodplains of large rivers of North America. I think it is a useful manuscript that will provide a good example for numerous other planning efforts.Reply: We are grateful of the characterization of the paper as useful and that it will pro-C1 NHESSD

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Re-evaluating safety risks of multifunctional dikes with a probabilistic risk framework

Cited by 4 publications

References 33 publications

The Vulnerability of Damaged River and Lake Dikes for Wave Overtopping

The Vulnerability of Damaged River and Lake Dikes for Wave Overtopping

Towards multi-objective optimization of large-scale fluvial landscaping measures

Final response to R3

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