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Abstract. It is not uncommon for a flood defence to be combined with other societal uses as a multifunctional flood defence, from housing in urban areas to nature conservation in rural areas. The assessment of the safety of multifunctional flood defences is often done using conservative estimates. This study synthesizes new probabilistic approaches to evaluate the safety of multifunctional flood defences employed in the Netherlands and explores the results of these approaches. In this paper a case representing a typical Dutch river dike combining a flood safety function with a nature and housing function is assessed by its probability of failure for multiple reinforcement strategies considering multiple relevant failure mechanisms. Results show how the conservative estimates of multifunctional flood defences lead to a systematic underestimation of the reliability of these dikes. Furthermore, in a probabilistic assessment uncertainties introduced by multifunctional elements affect the level of safety of the dike proportional to the reliability of the dike itself. Hence, dikes with higher protection levels are more suitable to be combined with potentially harmful uses for safety, whereas dikes with low protection levels can benefit most from uses that contribute to safety.

Integrating natural components in flood defence infrastructure can add resilience to sea-level rise. Natural foreshores can keep pace with sea-level rise by accumulating sediment and attenuate waves before reaching the adjacent flood defences. In this study we address how natural foreshores affect the future need for dike heightening. A simplified model of vertical marsh accretion was combined with a wave model and a probabilistic evaluation of dike failure by overtopping. The sensitivity of a marsh-dike system was evaluated in relation to a combination of processes: (1) sea-level rise, (2) changes in sediment concentration, (3) a retreat of the marsh edge, and (4) compaction of the marsh. Results indicate that foreshore processes considerably affect the need for dike heightening in the future. At a low sea-level rise rate, the marshes can accrete such that dike heightening is partially mitigated. But with sea-level rise accelerating, a threshold is reached where dike heightening needs to compensate for the loss of marshes, and for increasing water levels. The level of the threshold depends mostly on the delivery of sediment and degree of compaction on the marsh; with sufficient width of the marsh, lateral erosion only has a minor effect. The study shows how processes and practices that hamper or enhance marsh development today exacerbate or alleviate the challenge of flood protection posed by accelerated sea-level rise.

Salt marshes can protect coastlines against flooding by attenuating wave energy and enhancing shoreline stabilization. However, salt-marsh functioning is threatened by human influences and sea level rise. Although it is known that protection services are mediated by vegetation, little is known about the role of vegetation structure in salt-marsh accretion. We investigated the role of vegetation presence, vegetation type and structural vegetation characteristics in sedimentation and sediment grain size. We established 56 plots on a salt marsh on the Dutch Wadden island of Texel. Plots were divided over four vegetation types contrasting in vegetation structure and varied in elevation and distance to creeks. Vegetation presence was controlled by clipping in subplots. Within each plot, we measured seven vegetation characteristics, sedimentation and the sediment grain size distribution. Furthermore, we explored the effect of the natural variation in vegetation structure on wave attenuation with a simple model approach. For this, we developed vegetation scenarios based on the field measurements of stem height, diameter and density. We found that vegetation presence increased sedimentation on average by 42%. Sedimentation was highest in Salicornia vegetation and increased with stem height and branching level. Grain size also seemed to increase with branching level. Modelled wave attenuation was 7.5 times higher with natural vegetation compared to topography only, was strongest for Spartina vegetation and most sensitive to the natural variance in stem density. Our results can be used to improve predictions of salt-marsh accretion and the implementation of salt marshes in nature-based flood defences.