Re-evaluating safety risks of multifunctional dikes with a probabilistic risk framework

Marijnissen, Richard; Kok, Matthijs; Kroeze, Carolien; Loon-Steensma, J.M. van

doi:10.5194/nhess-19-737-2019

Cited by 14 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Fourthly, compensation of land owners that have increased inundation of their land due to the removal of minor embankments could be included just like avoided damage from lower exposure to flood risk in a full cost-benefit analysis. See Mechler and Bouwer (2015) and Di Baldassarre et al (2015) for further discussion on risk management. Finally, we assumed that all measures are implemented instantaneously, whereas the timing could be made dependent on updated sea level rise projections to optimize the measures under uncertainty and avoid unnecessary costs (Postek et al, 2018;Kind, 2014).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards multi-objective optimization of large-scale fluvial landscaping measures

Straatsma

Fliervoet

Kabout

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Adapting densely populated deltas to the combined impacts of climate change and socioeconomic developments presents a major challenge for their sustainable development in the 21st century. Decisions for the adaptations require an overview of cost and benefits and the number of stakeholders involved, which can be used in stakeholder discussions. Therefore, we quantified the trade-offs of common measures to compensate for an increase in discharge and sea level rise on the basis of relevant, but inexhaustive, quantitative variables. We modeled the largest delta distributary of the Rhine River with adaptation scenarios driven by (1) the choice of seven measures, (2) the areas owned by the two largest stakeholders (LS) versus all stakeholders (AS) based on a priori stakeholder preferences, and (3) the ecological or hydraulic design principle. We evaluated measures by their efficiency in flood hazard reduction, potential biodiversity, number of stakeholders as a proxy for governance complexity, and measure implementation cost. We found that only floodplain lowering over the whole study area can offset the altered hydrodynamic boundary conditions; for all other measures, additional dike raising is required. LS areas comprise low hanging fruits for water level lowering due to the governance simplicity and hydraulic efficiency. Natural management of meadows (AS), after roughness smoothing and floodplain lowering, represents the optimum combination between potential biodiversity and flood hazard lowering, as it combines a high potential biodiversity with a relatively low hydrodynamic roughness. With this concept, we step up to a multidisciplinary, quantitative multi-parametric, and multi-objective optimization and support the negotiations among stakeholders in the decision-making process.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards multi-objective optimization of large-scale fluvial landscaping measures

Straatsma

Fliervoet

Kabout

et al. 2019

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Only levee failure due to piping is considered in the method. However, the analysis of the levee reliability can easily be extended to other failure mechanisms, even multiple ones, by adequately adapting the fragility functions (Apel et al, 2006;Dawson & Hall, 2006;Marijnissen et al, 2019;Vorogushyn et al, 2010). It is worth noting that in the case of complex probabilistic reliability procedures involving different failure mechanisms, the Monte Carlo method is a general feasible solution, albeit computationally expensive (Vorogushyn et al, 2009).…”

Section: Limitations Of the Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Assessment of Flood Hazard due to Levee Breaches Using Fragility Functions

D’Oria

Maranzoni

Mazzoleni

2019

Water Resources Research

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Flood hazard maps are useful tools for land planning and flood risk management in order to increase the safety of flood‐prone areas that can be inundated in the event of levee failure. However, flood hazard assessment is affected by various uncertainties, both aleatory and epistemic. The flood hazard analysis should hence take into account the main sources of uncertainty and quantify the confidence of the results for a given design flood event. To this end, this paper presents a probabilistic method for flood hazard mapping, which considers uncertainty due to breach location and failure time. A reliability analysis of the discretized levee system, performed using the concept of fragility function, enables the preselection of a set of levee sections more susceptible to failure. The probabilities of the breach scenarios (characterized by different breach locations and times) are then calculated using the probability multiplication rule, neglecting multiple breaches. The method is applied to a 96‐km levee‐protected reach in the central portion of the Po River (Northern Italy) and to an adjacent 1,900‐km2 flood‐prone area on the right‐hand side of the river, with a focus on the piping breach mechanism. The numerical simulations are performed through a combined 1D‐2D hydrodynamic model using widespread free software. The results show that the method is effective for probabilistic inundation and flood hazard mapping. In addition, it has the advantage of requiring a smaller computational effort in comparison with the methods based on a classic Monte Carlo procedure.

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“…Levee breaches may occur due to different mechanisms such as overtopping, geohydraulic failure or piping, and local and global static failure [3,4]. Such failures involve a complex pattern of possible consequences for river systems [5,6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Levee Breaching: A New Extension to the LISFLOOD-FP Model

Shustikova

Neal

Domeneghetti

et al. 2020

Water

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Levee failures due to floods often cause considerable economic damage and life losses in inundated dike-protected areas, and significantly change flood hazard upstream and downstream the breach location during the event. We present a new extension for the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model which allows levee breaching along embankments in fully two-dimensional (2D) mode. Our extension allows for breach simulations in 2D structured grid hydrodynamic models at different scales and for different hydraulic loads in a computationally efficient manner. A series of tests performed on synthetic and historic events of different scale and magnitude show that the breaching module is numerically stable and reliable. We simulated breaches on synthetic terrain using unsteady flow as an upstream boundary condition and compared the outcomes with an identical setup of a full-momentum 2D solver. The synthetic tests showed that differences in the maximum flow through the breach between the two models were less than 1%, while for a small-scale flood event on the Secchia River (Italy), it was underestimated by 7% compared to a reference study. A large scale extreme event simulation on the Po River (Italy) resulted in 83% accuracy (critical success index).

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Re-evaluating safety risks of multifunctional dikes with a probabilistic risk framework

Cited by 14 publications

References 47 publications

Towards multi-objective optimization of large-scale fluvial landscaping measures

Towards multi-objective optimization of large-scale fluvial landscaping measures

Probabilistic Assessment of Flood Hazard due to Levee Breaches Using Fragility Functions

Levee Breaching: A New Extension to the LISFLOOD-FP Model

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