Re-evaluation of future water stress due to socio-economic and climate factors under a warming climate

Kiguchi, Masashi; Shen, Yanjun; Kanae, Shinjiro; Oki, Taikan

doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.888067

Cited by 37 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Foreseen changes in climate change and socioeconomic developments1819202122232425262728 are expected to amplify the observed trends and to reinforce the observed pattern of winners and losers. HI may alleviate/aggravate, on the one hand, the vulnerability to climate change and climate variability, especially in those regions that experience significant increases/decreases in water availability due to HI.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

et al. 2017

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Water scarcity is rapidly increasing in many regions. In a novel, multi-model assessment, we examine how human interventions (HI: land use and land cover change, man-made reservoirs and human water use) affected monthly river water availability and water scarcity over the period 1971–2010. Here we show that HI drastically change the critical dimensions of water scarcity, aggravating water scarcity for 8.8% (7.4–16.5%) of the global population but alleviating it for another 8.3% (6.4–15.8%). Positive impacts of HI mostly occur upstream, whereas HI aggravate water scarcity downstream; HI cause water scarcity to travel downstream. Attribution of water scarcity changes to HI components is complex and varies among the hydrological models. Seasonal variation in impacts and dominant HI components is also substantial. A thorough consideration of the spatially and temporally varying interactions among HI components and of uncertainties is therefore crucial for the success of water scarcity adaptation by HI.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

et al. 2017

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“…This paper assesses water futures in Asia to 2050 on a decadal basis to identify the key drivers of worsening water stress conditions. Changes in Asian water futures are quantitatively investigated with two commonly used indicators [ Vörösmarty et al ., ; Rijsberman , ; Alcamo et al ., ; Wada et al ., ; Kiguchi et al ., ; Veldkamp et al ., ]. First, we present the Water Crowding Index (WCI; hereafter defined as water shortage, and used in Section 3.1) that quantifies the available surface water resource per capita (ASWRpc) categorized as: scarcity (500–1,000 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 ), and absolute scarcity (<500 m 3 cap −1 yr −1 ) [ Falkenmark et al ., ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Multi‐model and multi‐scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

et al. 2017

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This paper presents one of the first quantitative scenario assessments for future water supply and demand in Asia to 2050. The assessment, developed by the Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative, uses the latest set of global climate change and socioeconomic scenarios and state-of-the-art global hydrological models. In Asia, water demand for irrigation, industry, and households is projected to increase substantially in the coming decades (30-40% by 2050 compared to 2010). These changes are expected to exacerbate water stress, especially in the current hotspots such as north India and Pakistan, and north China. By 2050, 20% of the land area in the Asia-Pacific region, with a population of 1.6-2 billion, is projected to experience severe water stress. We find that socioeconomic changes are the main drivers of worsening water scarcity in Asia, with climate change impacts further increasing the challenge into the 21st century. Moreover, a detailed basin-level analysis of the hydro-economic conditions of 40 Asian basins shows that although the coping capacity of all basins is expected to improve due to gross domestic product (GDP) growth, some basins continuously face severe water challenges. These basins will potentially be home to up to 1.6 billion people by mid-21st century.Plain Language Summary Home to almost 4.5 billion people, Asia has experienced unprecedented economic and population growth in recent decades. In order to sustain growing food demand and increasing standard of living, water use has been increasing rapidly in many parts of Asia. At present, water withdrawals in Asia represent 65% of the global total. This huge abstraction of water resources has resulted in many Asian regions undergoing pervasive water scarcity conditions. The imminent global changes from climate change and socioeconomic development in Asia are expected to place additional pressures on water resources in the coming decades. In such a context, it is imperative to evaluate future water scarcity conditions and identify regions at highest risk in Asia. We found that by 2050, 20% of the land area in Asia, with population exceeding 1.6-2.0 billion, is projected to experience severe water scarcity. Here, we for the first time highlight that socioeconomic changes are the main driver of worsening water scarcity in Asia, much larger than the climate change impacts.

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“…The CTA-ratio examines how much water is consumed relative to the amount of water available in a specific region and has been applied in a wide range of studies to calculate water stress (Falkenmark, 2013a,b;Hoekstra et al, 2012;Kiguchi et al, 2015;Oki and Kanae, 2006;Vorosmarty et al, 2000;Wada et al, 2011a). Following these studies we applied a threshold level of 0.2 to indicate water stress events.…”

Section: Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Over the past decades, changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increased regional and global water scarcity problems (Kummu et al, 2010;Vorosmarty et al, 2000;Wada et al, 2011a,b). Future climate change, projected population growth, and the continuing increase in water demand, are expected to aggravate these water scarcity conditions world-wide (Alcamo et al, 2007;Haddeland et al, 2014;Kiguchi et al, 2015;Lehner et al, 2006;Prudhomme et al, 2014;Schewe et al, 2014;Sperna Weiland et al, 2012;Stahl, 2001;Van Vliet et al, 2013;Wada et al, 2011a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing mechanism of global water scarcity events: Impacts of socioeconomic changes and inter-annual hydro-climatic variability

Veldkamp

Wada

Moel

et al. 2015

Global Environmental Change

135

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Re-evaluation of future water stress due to socio-economic and climate factors under a warming climate

Cited by 37 publications

References 26 publications

Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

Water scarcity hotspots travel downstream due to human interventions in the 20th and 21st century

Multi‐model and multi‐scenario assessments of Asian water futures: The Water Futures and Solutions (WFaS) initiative

Changing mechanism of global water scarcity events: Impacts of socioeconomic changes and inter-annual hydro-climatic variability

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