Real‐time updating of the Simplified Ionospheric Regional Model for operational applications

Perrone

et al. 2013

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The paper describes results of the studies devoted to the solar activity impact on the Earth's upper atmosphere and ionosphere, conducted within the frame of COST ES0803 Action. Aim: The aim of the paper is to represent results coming from different research groups in a unified form, aligning their specific topics into the general context of the subject. Methods: The methods used in the paper are based on data-driven analysis. Specific databases are used for spectrum analysis, empirical modeling, electron density profile reconstruction, and forecasting techniques. Results: Results are grouped in three sections: Medium-and long-term ionospheric response to the changes in solar and geomagnetic activity, storm-time ionospheric response to the solar and geomagnetic forcing, and modeling and forecasting techniques. Section 1 contains five subsections with results on 27-day response of low-latitude ionosphere to solar extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, response to the recurrent geomagnetic storms, long-term trends in the upper atmosphere, latitudinal dependence of total electron content on EUV changes, and statistical analysis of ionospheric behavior during prolonged period of solar activity. Section 2 contains a study of ionospheric variations induced by recurrent CIR-driven storm, a case-study of polar cap absorption due to an intense CME, and a statistical study of geographic distribution of so-called E-layer dominated ionosphere. Section 3 comprises empirical models for describing and forecasting TEC, the F-layer critical frequency foF2, and the height of maximum plasma density. A study evaluates the usefulness of effective sunspot number in specifying the ionosphere state. An original method is presented, which retrieves the basic thermospheric parameters from ionospheric sounding data.

Section: Modeling and Forecasting Techniquesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Advances In the Development Of Ionospheric Forecasting Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Solar activity impact on the Earth’s upper atmosphere

Kutiev

Perrone

et al. 2013

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“…The SIRMUP nowcasting capabilities in the middle latitude ionosphere have been explored during quiet and disturbed ionospheric conditions by Zolesi et al (2004) and Tsagouri et al (2005) and the corresponding findings show, in general, a high degree of efficiency to map in real-time the propagation conditions over Europe. However, some possible limitations in the performance of the method were noted during localised ionospheric disturbances.…”

Section: The Enhanced Version Of the Simplified Ionosphericmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SIRMUP (Zolesi et al 2004) is based on the Simplified Ionospheric Regional Model (SIRM), which is then updated with real-time ionospheric observations to update the climatological estimates to nowcasting services. SIRMUP is implemented in DIAS to produce nowcasting maps over Europe.…”

Section: The Enhanced Version Of the Simplified Ionosphericmentioning

confidence: 99%

The European Ionosonde Service: nowcasting and forecasting ionospheric conditions over Europe for the ESA Space Situational Awareness services

Belehaki

Kutiev

et al. 2015

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The Earth's ionosphere is a magnetoionic medium imbedded in a background neutral atmosphere, exhibiting very interesting refractive properties, including anisotropy, dispersion, and dissipation. As such, it poses a challenge for several radio systems that make use of signal transmission through all or some portion of the medium. It is important therefore to develop prediction systems able to inform the operators of such systems about the current state of the ionosphere, about the expected effects of forthcoming space weather disturbances and about support long-term planning of operations and data post-processing projects for improving modelling and mitigation techniques. The European Space Agency (ESA) in the framework of the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme has supported the development of the European Ionosonde Service (EIS) that releases a set of products to characterise the bottomside and topside ionosphere over Europe. The Service is based on a set of prediction models driven by data from ground-based ionosondes and supportive data from satellites and spacecraft. The service monitors the foF2 and the electron density profile up to the height of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) at European middle and high latitudes and provides estimates for forthcoming disturbances mainly triggered by geo-effective Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The model's performance has been validated and based on these results, it was possible to issue together with the products, quality metrics characterizing the product's reliability. The EIS products meet the requirements of various SSA service domains, especially the transionospheric radio link and the spacecraft operations. Currently, the service is freely available to all interested users, and access is possible upon registration.

“…This is based on the analysis of ULF wave spectra measured by ACE magnetometer, and ULF oscillations measured by GOES magnetometers at geosynchronous orbit and by groundbased magnetometers distributed globally and it combines ground-based PiB geomagnetic pulsations with global ULF oscillations of Pc5 type (Degtyarev et al 2009;Degtyarev et al 2010;Potapov and Polyushkina 2010). SIRMUP (Zolesi et al 2004;Tsagouri et al 2005) is implemented online to provide nowcasting ionospheric products and services for the European region through DIAS system (Belehaki et al 2006b(Belehaki et al , 2007 and for the central Mediterranean area through the -Geomagnetic Indices Forecasting and Ionospheric Nowcasting Tools (GIFINT) services (http:// gifint.ifsi.rm.cnr.it/) that is integrated with the SWENET. In SIRMUP, the real-time values of foF2 at one location are determined from the SIRM model (Zolesi et al 1993) by using the effective sunspot number, R12eff, instead of R 12 .…”

Section: Geomagnetic Predictionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Progress in space weather modeling in an operational environment

Belehaki

Bergeot

et al. 2013

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This paper aims at providing an overview of latest advances in space weather modeling in an operational environment in Europe, including both the introduction of new models and improvements to existing codes and algorithms that address the broad range of space weather's prediction requirements from the Sun to the Earth. For each case, we consider the model's input data, the output parameters, products or services, its operational status, and whether it is supported by validation results, in order to build a solid basis for future developments. This work is the output of the Sub Group 1.3 ''Improvement of operational models'' of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0803 ''Developing Space Weather Products and services in Europe'' and therefore this review focuses on the progress achieved by European research teams involved in the action.