The study of the preparation phase of large earthquakes is essential to understand the physical processes involved, and potentially useful also to develop a future reliable short-term warning system. Here we analyse electron density and magnetic field data measured by Swarm three-satellite constellation for 4.7 years, to look for possible in-situ ionospheric precursors of large earthquakes to study the interactions between the lithosphere and the above atmosphere and ionosphere, in what is called the Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC). We define these anomalies statistically in the whole space-time interval of interest and use a Worldwide Statistical Correlation (WSC) analysis through a superposed epoch approach to study the possible relation with the earthquakes. We find some clear concentrations of electron density and magnetic anomalies from more than two months to some days before the earthquake occurrences. Such anomaly clustering is, in general, statistically significant with respect to homogeneous random simulations, supporting a LAIC during the preparation phase of earthquakes. By investigating different earthquake magnitude ranges, not only do we confirm the well-known Rikitake empirical law between ionospheric anomaly precursor time and earthquake magnitude, but we also give more reliability to the seismic source origin for many of the identified anomalies.

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Morphological analysis of Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh foF2 and foF1 long‐term variations for the period including recent observations made in the previous paper (PM) has shown that the geomagnetic control is valid in the 21st century, moreover, the dependence on geomagnetic activity has become more pronounced and explicit after 1990. A new method to retrieve thermospheric neutral composition (O, O2, and N2), exospheric temperature Tex, and the total solar EUV flux with λ < 1050 Å from routine foF1 ionosonde observations has been developed to understand the mechanism of this geomagnetic control. The method was tested using CHAMP/STAR neutral gas density measurements. The retrieved for the first time thermospheric parameters at Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over the period of ~ 5 solar cycles were used to analyze the mechanism of foF1 and foF2 long‐term variations in the light of the geomagnetic control concept. It was shown that the control was provided via two channels: [O] and [O]/[N2] variations. Geomagnetic activity presented by 11 year running mean weighted index Ap11y controls the (O/N2)11y ratio variations, while solar activity presented by (F10.7)11y controls atomic oxygen [O]11y variations. Atomic oxygen, the main aeronomic parameter controlling daytime foF1 and foF2 variations, manifests solar cycle and long‐term (for some solar cycles) variations with the rising phase in 1965–1985 and the falling phase in 1985–2008. These long‐term [O] variations are reflected in foF2 and foF1 long‐term variations. The origin of these long‐term variations is in the Sun. The empirical thermospheric model Mass Spectrometer Incoherent Scatter‐86 driven by Ap and F10.7 indices manifests [O]11y and (O/N2 )11y variations similar to the retrieved ones including the period of deep solar minimum with a very low atomic oxygen concentration in 2008. This confirms the basic idea of the geomagnetic control concept that ionospheric long‐term variations have a natural (not anthropogenic) origin related to long‐term variations in solar and geomagnetic activity.

International audienceA systematic multi-parameter and multi-platform approach to study the slow process of earthquake preparation is fundamental to gain some insights on this complex phenomenon. In particular, an important contribution is the integrated analysis between ground geophysical data and satellite data. In this paper we review some of the more recent results and suggest the next directions of this kind of research. Our intention is not to detect a particular precursor but to understand the physics underlying the various observations and to establish a reliable physical model of the preparation phase before an impending earthquake. In this way, future investigation will search for suitable fore-patterns, which the physical model of multi-layers coupling predicts and characterizes by quasi-synchronism in time and geo-consistency in space. We also present alternative explanations for some anomalies which are not actually related to earthquakes, rather to other natural or anthropic processes

The paper describes results of the studies devoted to the solar activity impact on the Earth's upper atmosphere and ionosphere, conducted within the frame of COST ES0803 Action. Aim: The aim of the paper is to represent results coming from different research groups in a unified form, aligning their specific topics into the general context of the subject. Methods: The methods used in the paper are based on data-driven analysis. Specific databases are used for spectrum analysis, empirical modeling, electron density profile reconstruction, and forecasting techniques. Results: Results are grouped in three sections: Medium-and long-term ionospheric response to the changes in solar and geomagnetic activity, storm-time ionospheric response to the solar and geomagnetic forcing, and modeling and forecasting techniques. Section 1 contains five subsections with results on 27-day response of low-latitude ionosphere to solar extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, response to the recurrent geomagnetic storms, long-term trends in the upper atmosphere, latitudinal dependence of total electron content on EUV changes, and statistical analysis of ionospheric behavior during prolonged period of solar activity. Section 2 contains a study of ionospheric variations induced by recurrent CIR-driven storm, a case-study of polar cap absorption due to an intense CME, and a statistical study of geographic distribution of so-called E-layer dominated ionosphere. Section 3 comprises empirical models for describing and forecasting TEC, the F-layer critical frequency foF2, and the height of maximum plasma density. A study evaluates the usefulness of effective sunspot number in specifying the ionosphere state. An original method is presented, which retrieves the basic thermospheric parameters from ionospheric sounding data.