Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C

Meinshausen, Malte; Lewis, Jared; McGlade, Christophe; Gütschow, Johannes; Nicholls, Zebedee; Burdon, Rebecca; Cozzi, Laura; Hackmann, Bernd

doi:10.1038/s41586-022-04553-z

Cited by 383 publications

(206 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…While COP26 provided some limited progress, Climate Action Tracker continues to maintain that even best case implementation of current pledges, commitments and plans remains woefully inadequate. 1 One can expect a continual improvement in NDCs (and a recent paper in Nature provides an optimistic best-case, Meinshausen et al, 2022), but there is a need for action now and according to UN Secretary General António Guterres in April 2022 the situation was one where "Some government and business leaders are saying one thingbut doing another. Simply put, they are lying.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is seeking certainty in climate sensitivity measures counterproductive in the context of climate emergency? The case for scenario planning

Derbyshire

Morgan

2022

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Is seeking certainty in climate sensitivity measures counterproductive in the context of climate emergency? The case for scenario planning

Derbyshire

Morgan

2022

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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“…Thus, the gap is essentially an incongruity between the agreed-upon goal and states' emission reduction pledges in the form of nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The adoption of netzero emission targets by several countries has sparked hopes that the ambition gap is shrinking (Meinshausen et al, 2022).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Closing the Implementation Gap: Obstacles in Reaching Net-Zero Pledges in the EU and Germany

Perino¹,

Jarke-Neuert

Schenuit

et al. 2022

PaG

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The European Union and Germany have recently committed themselves to greenhouse-gas neutrality by 2050 and 2045, respectively. This substantially reduces their gaps in ambition to the Paris climate goals. However, the current climate policy mix is not sufficient to reach these targets: There is a major implementation gap. Based on economic, legal, and political science perspectives, this article identifies key obstacles in legislating stringent climate policy instruments and making them effective. Using a simple framework, we map the stage of the process in which the obstacles are at work. Moreover, we discuss the potential effectiveness of a select list of prominent drivers of climate-related regulation in overcoming said obstacles and conclude by pointing towards conditions for closing the implementation gap. In doing so, we focus on the current legislative processes of the “Fit-for-55” package by the European Commission and the 2021 Federal Climate Change Act in Germany. Our analysis builds on the extant literature, and we suggest avenues for further research.

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“…Countries now also announce long-term pledges to reach net zero emissions (Fankhauser et al 2022 ; Rogelj et al 2021 ). Temperature estimates based on meeting NDCs and net zero targets show an increase in the likelihood of limiting end of century warming temperature increase to 1.5 °C (Höhne et al 2021 ; Keramidas et al 2021 ; Meinshausen et al 2022 ). Countries’ pledges are not equivalent to actions and still fail to secure the global temperature goals but got a boost since the adoption of the Paris Agreement.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The G20 emission projections to 2030 improved since the Paris Agreement, but only slightly

Nascimento

Kuramochi

Höhne

2022

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Many years passed since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which invites countries to determine their own contributions to climate change mitigation efforts. The Agreement does not offer a standard to measure progress but relies on a process of periodic stocktakes to inform ambition-raising cycles. To contribute to this process, we compare 2021 greenhouse gas emission projections up to 2030 against equivalent projections prepared back in 2015. Both sets of projections were prepared using the same bottom-up modelling approach that accounts for adopted policies at the time. We find that 2021 projections for the G20 as a group are almost 15% lower (approximately 6 GtCO2eq) in 2030 than projected in 2015. Annual emissions grow 1% slower in the coming decade than projected in 2015. This slower growth mostly stems from the adoption of new policies and updated expectations on technology uptake and economic growth. However, around one-quarter of these changes are explained by the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on short-term emissions and economic forecasts. These factors combined result in substantially lower emission projections for India, the European Union plus the UK (EU27 + UK), the Unites States, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa. We observe a remarkable change in South African projections that changed from a substantial increase to now a decline, driven in part by the planned phase-out of most of its coal-based power. Emissions in India are projected to grow slower than in 2015 and in Indonesia faster, but emissions per capita in both countries remain below 5 tCO2eq in 2030, while those in the EU27 + UK decline faster than expected in 2015 and probably cross the 5 tCO2eq threshold before 2030. Projected emissions per capita in Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are now lower than projected in 2015 but remain above 15 tCO2eq in 2030. Although emission projections for the G20 improved since 2015, collectively they still slightly increase until 2030 and remain insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals. The G20 must urgently and drastically improve adopted policies and actions to limit the end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C.

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Realization of Paris Agreement pledges may limit warming just below 2 °C

Cited by 383 publications

References 26 publications

Is seeking certainty in climate sensitivity measures counterproductive in the context of climate emergency? The case for scenario planning

Is seeking certainty in climate sensitivity measures counterproductive in the context of climate emergency? The case for scenario planning

Closing the Implementation Gap: Obstacles in Reaching Net-Zero Pledges in the EU and Germany

The G20 emission projections to 2030 improved since the Paris Agreement, but only slightly

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