Recent advances in flood forecasting and flood risk assessment

Abstract

Abstract. Recent large floods in Europe have led to increased interest in research and development of flood forecasting systems. Some of these events have been provoked by some of the wettest rainfall periods on record which has led to speculation that such extremes are attributable in some measure to anthropogenic global warming and represent the beginning of a period of higher flood frequency. Whilst current trends in extreme event statistics will be difficult to discern, conclusively, there has been a substantial increase in the frequency of high floods in the 20th century for basins greater than 2x105 km2. There is also increasing that anthropogenic forcing of climate change may lead to an increased probability of extreme precipitation and, hence, of flooding. There is, therefore, major emphasis on the improvement of operational flood forecasting systems in Europe, with significant European Community spending on research and development on prototype forecasting systems and flood risk management projects. This Special Issue synthesises the most relevant scientific and technological results presented at the International Conference on Flood Forecasting in Europe held in Rotterdam from 3-5 March 2003. During that meeting 150 scientists, forecasters and stakeholders from four continents assembled to present their work and current operational best practice and to discuss future directions of scientific and technological efforts in flood prediction and prevention. The papers presented at the conference fall into seven themes, as follows.

A Review of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts and Their Use in Short- to Medium-Range Streamflow Forecasting

“…It will also depend on the operational forecasting center's experience and legacy systems. Physics-based distributed hydrologic models are more likely to represent the cause-effect relationships leading to changing runoff behavior (Arduino et al 2005). In the distributed model, flood inundation information across the catchment could be more easily derived.…”

“…The choice of hydrologic model depends on the forecast lead time, catchment size, and the characteristics of runoff (Arduino et al 2005). It will also depend on the operational forecasting center's experience and legacy systems.…”

Exceptional floods on a developed river: case study for the Bistrita River from the Eastern Carpathians (Romania)

“…Concerning the maximum flows, safety measures are necessary, especially with respect to flood prevention. Between river run-off regime phases and phenomena of great social and economic risk, flash floods, which produce overflows and floods, represent a major natural risk (Affeltranger and Lictorout 2006;Arduino et al 2005;Arghius 2008;Badaluta-Minda and Cretu 2010;Chiriac et al 1980;Lóczy 2010;Olang and Fürst 2010;Romanescu 2009;Romanescu and Nistor 2011;Rosu and Cretu 1998).…”

Real-time correction of water stage forecast during rainstorm events using combination of forecast errors

“…Due to the abovementioned uncertainties, flood forecast reliability tends to decreases with greater forecast lead time, and some compromise should be reached in order to minimize losses due to these uncertainties (Romanowicz et al 2008). In other words, uncertainty in flood forecasting generally increases with predicted lead time needed to implement flood protection measures (Arduino et al 2005), so that the simulated and forecasted hydrographs never perfectly fit the measurements. In addition to the above uncertainties, the uncertainty in the model identification should affect the hydrological forecasting (Wagener and Gupat 2005).…”