Recent Arctic Climate Change and Its Remote Forcing of Northwest Atlantic Shelf Ecosystems

Greene, Charles H.; Monger, Bruce C.; McGarry, Louise P.; Connelly, Matthew D.; Schnepf, N. R.; Pershing, Andrew J.; Belkin, Igor M.; Fratantoni, Paula S.; Mountain, David; Pickart, Robert S.; Ji, Rubao; Bisagni, James J.; Chen, Changsheng; Häkkinen, Sirpa; Haidvogel, Dale B.; Wang, Jia; Head, Erica J. H.; Smith, Peter C.; Conversi, Alessandra

doi:10.5670/oceanog.2012.64

Cited by 31 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…For example, the second component of the biological state (13.22% of the total variance), although not correlated with any single large-scale climatic index throughout its entire time series, was positively correlated with the AO after the late 1980s shift (figure 5). These results are similar to the correlation between the AO and the Arctic Ocean Oscillation, which became significant from the beginning of the 1980s onwards [42]. The spatial correlation patterns between SLP and the first two BioPCs (figure 8) also indicate an association between the biological state and the Arctic climate system.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

“…The links between interdecadal variability in the Arctic climate system, upper-ocean circulation patterns in the Arctic and Atlantic Oceans, and ecosystem regime shifts in the North Atlantic during the past three decades have been reviewed recently [42,43,96]. Changes in Arctic climate at the transitions between the decades of the 1980s and 1990s and between the decades of the 1990s and 2000s resulted in abrupt changes in the export of freshwater from the Arctic Ocean to the North Atlantic.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regime shifts have been reported for the North Pacific (1976/1977 and 1989) [6,[26][27][28][29], specifically the northeast Pacific (1976/1977) [30,31], (1998/1999) [32,33] and the northwest Pacific (1976/1977, 1988/1989 and 1998) [34][35][36]; the Humboldt Current in the southern Pacific (1968/1970 and 1984/1986) [37,38]; and the northwest Atlantic (1989Atlantic ( /1990 [39][40][41][42][43]. In addition, regime shifts were observed in the late 1980s around all European seas [8]: the North Sea [44,45], the Baltic Sea [9,46], the northwest European shelf seas (1987/1990) [47,48], the western [49] and eastern (Adriatic) Mediterranean Sea [8,50,51] and the Black Sea [52,53].…”

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confidence: 99%

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Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Beaugrand

Conversi

Chiba

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 74%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

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Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Beaugrand

Conversi

Chiba

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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“…This variability likely reflects both enduring climatological differences within regions and transient, localized processes, such as storms, mesoscale eddies, horizontal advection of distinct water masses, tidal mixing and bathymetry (Greene et al, 2012;Mahadevan et al, 2012;McGillicuddy et al, 2007). Finally, our analysis compares well to the seasonal averages described for the Gulf of Maine by Thomas et al (2003) and differ from the descriptions of bloom initiation in Ji et al (2007) and Song et al (2010) because their study domains extended further north and eastward over the shallower areas of the Scotian Shelf.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 55%

Spring bloom dynamics and zooplankton biomass response on the US Northeast Continental Shelf

Friedland

Leaf

Kane

et al. 2015

Continental Shelf Research

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a b s t r a c tThe spring phytoplankton bloom on the US Northeast Continental Shelf is a feature of the ecosystem production cycle that varies annually in timing, spatial extent, and magnitude. To quantify this variability, we analyzed remotely-sensed ocean color data at two spatial scales, one based on ecologically defined sub-units of the ecosystem (production units) and the other on a regular grid (0.5°). Five units were defined: Gulf of Maine East and West, Georges Bank, and Middle Atlantic Bight North and South. The units averaged 47 Â 10 3 km 2 in size. The initiation and termination of the spring bloom were determined using change-point analysis with constraints on what was identified as a bloom based on climatological bloom patterns. A discrete spring bloom was detected in most years over much of the western Gulf of Maine production unit. However, bloom frequency declined in the eastern Gulf of Maine and transitioned to frequencies as low as 50% along the southern flank of the Georges Bank production unit. Detectable spring blooms were episodic in the Middle Atlantic Bight production units. In the western Gulf of Maine, bloom duration was inversely related to bloom start day; thus, early blooms tended to be longer lasting and larger magnitude blooms. We view this as a phenological mismatch between bloom timing and the "top-down" grazing pressure that terminates a bloom. Estimates of secondary production were available from plankton surveys that provided spring indices of zooplankton biovolume. Winter chlorophyll biomass had little effect on spring zooplankton biovolume, whereas spring chlorophyll biomass had mixed effects on biovolume. There was evidence of a "bottom up" response seen on Georges Bank where spring zooplankton biovolume was positively correlated with the concentration of chlorophyll. However, in the western Gulf of Maine, biovolume was uncorrelated with chlorophyll concentration, but was positively correlated with bloom start and negatively correlated with magnitude. This observation is consistent with both a "top-down" mechanism of control of the bloom and a "bottom-up" effect of bloom timing on zooplankton grazing. Our inability to form a consistent model of these relationships across adjacent systems underscores the need for further research.Published by Elsevier Ltd.

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“…Regardless of the causes of the collapse, the lack of recovery of east coast cod populations to their former numbers despite over 25 years of low fishing effort and moratoria has been well documented (Bundy and Fanning 2005;Smedbol and Wroblewski 2002;Swain and Mohn 2012) and its causes and consequences extensively debated in terms of regime shifts, top-down versus bottom-up trophic dynamics, and more recently "oscillatory runaway consumption dynamics of the forage fish complex" (Frank et al 2005(Frank et al , 2011Greene 2013;Greene et al 2012;Greene and Pershing 2007;Grubbs et al 2016;Pershing et al 2015;Sinclair et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Towards a balanced presentation and objective interpretation of acoustic and trawl survey data, with specific reference to the eastern Scotian Shelf

Jech

McQuinn

2016

Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci.

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A debate has developed over the ecosystem consequences following the collapse of Atlantic cod throughout the coastal waters of eastern Canada. The explosive increase in pelagic fish abundance in scientific bottom-trawl catches on the eastern Scotian Shelf has been interpreted as being due to either (i) a "pelagic outburst" of forage fish abundance resulting from predator release or conversely (ii) a change in pelagic fish vertical distribution leading to a "suprabenthic habitat occupation" thereby increasing their availability to bottom trawls. These two interpretations have diametrically opposing ecological consequences and suggest different management strategies for these important forage fish species. We argue that an objective evaluation of the available evidence supports the hypothesis that the abundance of forage fish has not increased in response to the demise of cod and other top predators, and the reliance on a single sampling gear with low catchability has biased and will continue to bias the interpretation of demographic trends of pelagic fish populations. We advocate that multiple sampling technologies providing alternative perspectives are needed for the monitoring and management of the various trophic levels if we are to achieve a balanced and objective understanding of marine ecosystems.Résumé : Un débat a vu le jour concernant les conséquences écosystémiques de l'effondrement des stocks de morue au travers les eaux côtières de l'est du Canada. L'augmentation fulgurante de l'abondance des poissons pélagiques dans les prises scientifiques au chalut de fond dans la partie est de la plate-forme Néo-Écossaise a été interprétée comme étant le fait soit (i) d'une « explosion pélagique » de l'abondance de poissons fourrage résultant de la baisse des prédateurs ou, à l'inverse, (ii) d'un changement de la répartition verticale des poissons pélagiques ayant mené à leur « occupation des habitats suprabenthiques », accroissant leur disponibilité pour les chaluts de fond. Ces deux interprétations ont des conséquences écologiques diamétrale-ment opposées et nécessiteraient des stratégies de gestion différentes pour ces espèces de poissons fourrage importantes. Nous arguons qu'une évaluation objective des données probantes disponibles appuie l'hypothèse selon laquelle l'abondance des poissons fourrage n'a pas augmenté en réponse à l'effondrement de la morue et d'autres prédateurs de niveau trophique supérieur, et que le recours à un seul engin d'échantillonnage caractérisé par une faible capturabilité a faussé et continuera de fausser l'interprétation des tendances démographiques des populations de poissons pélagiques. Nous soutenons que plusieurs techniques d'échantillonnage offrant différentes perspectives sont nécessaires à la surveillance et la gestion des différents niveaux trophiques et pour en arriver à une compréhension équilibrée et objective des écosystèmes marins. [Traduit par la Rédaction]

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Recent Arctic Climate Change and Its Remote Forcing of Northwest Atlantic Shelf Ecosystems

Cited by 31 publications

References 9 publications

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Spring bloom dynamics and zooplankton biomass response on the US Northeast Continental Shelf

Towards a balanced presentation and objective interpretation of acoustic and trawl survey data, with specific reference to the eastern Scotian Shelf

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