Recent Change—Atmosphere

Stendel, Martin; Besselaar, Else van den; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth C.; Lefebvre, Christiana; Schenk, Frederik; Schrier, Gerard van der; Woollings, Tim

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-39745-0_2

Cited by 13 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 219 publications

(218 reference statements)

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“…However, in light of multidecadal variability, the short considered time span might prohibit assessments of long‐term trends. For example, Siegismund and Schrum () reported a strong upward trend in the North Sea based on the National Centers for Atmospheric Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis between 1958 and 1997, which largely disappears if an extended period 1948 to 2014 is used as input (Stendel et al, ). The reason that these two studies estimate different trends may well be connected to low‐frequency variability of the NAO (e.g., Hurrell et al, ).…”

Section: Discussion—are These Trends Real?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses

et al. 2019

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Reanalysis data underpin much research in atmospheric and related sciences. While most reanalysis only cover the last couple of decades, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (20CR) and European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ERA20C and CERA20C) also developed reanalyses for the entire twentieth century that theoretically allow investigation of multidecadal variability. However, the approaches adopted to handle the massively evolving number of observations can cause spurious signals. Here we focus on wind speeds, as its assimilation is a key difference among these two products. We show that ERA20C and CERA20C feature significant trends in the North Atlantic and North Pacific wind speeds of up to 3 m/s per century. We show that there is a good relation between the trends in the reanalysis and assimilated wind speeds. In contrast, 20CR and the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts free model run ERA20CM do not show positive trends in the same regions. As a consequence, conclusions drawn from any single twentieth century reanalysis should be treated cautiously in particular in sectors with a strong wind dependency (e.g., wind energy).

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Section: Discussion—are These Trends Real?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses

et al. 2019

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“…As the German Bight is located in the eastern sector of the northeast Atlantic storm track (Feser et al ., 2015), its storm climate is influenced by the large scale circulation. The NAO represents the dominant mode of large‐scale atmospheric variability in the Atlantic sector that drives the westerlies in the Atlantic midlatitudes (Stendel et al ., 2016).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Flowchart visualization of the uncertainty estimation process the westerlies in the Atlantic midlatitudes (Stendel et al, 2016).…”

Section: Large-scale Circulationmentioning

confidence: 99%

German Bight storm activity, 1897–2018

Krieger

Krueger²,

Feser³

et al. 2020

Intl Journal of Climatology

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This study investigates the evolution of German Bight (southeastern North Sea) storminess from 1897 to 2018 through analysing upper quantiles of geostrophic wind speeds, which act as a proxy for past storm activity. Here, geostrophic wind speeds are calculated from triplets of mean sea level pressure observations that form triangles over the German Bight. The data used in the manuscript are provided by the International Surface Pressure Databank and the national meteorological services of Denmark, Germany, and the Netherlands. The derivation of storm activity is achieved by enhancing the established triangle proxy method via combining and merging storminess time series from numerous partially overlapping triangles in an ensemble-like manner. The utilized approach allows for the construction of robust, long-term and subdaily German Bight storminess time series. Further, the method provides insights into the underlying uncertainty of the time series. The results show that storm activity over the German Bight is subject to multidecadal variability. The latest decades are characterized by an increase in activity from the 1960s to the 1990s, followed by a decline lasting into the 2000s and below-average activity up until present. The results are backed through a comparison with reanalysis products from four datasets, which provide high-resolution wind and pressure data starting in 1979 and offshore wind speed measurements taken from the FINO-WIND project. This study also finds that German Bight storminess positively correlates with storminess in the NE Atlantic in general. In certain years, however, notably different levels of storm activity in the two regions can be found, which likely result from shifted large-scale circulation patterns.

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“…However, studies indicate that these inhomogeneities cannot be fully eliminated (e.g., Stendel et al, 2016). In addition, systematic differences between the underlying forecast models, such as due to their different spatial resolutions (Trigo 2006;Raible et al 2008) and differences in detection and tracking algorithms (Xia et al 2012) may affect parameters like cyclone statistics (for example changes in their intensity, number and position).…”

Section: Methods Past and Present Conditionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

Rutgersson

Kjellström

Haapala

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Abstract. A natural hazard is a naturally occurring extreme event with a negative effect on people and society or the environment. Natural hazards may have severe implications for human life and they can potentially generate economic losses and damage ecosystems. A better understanding of their major causes, probability of occurrence, and consequences enables society to be better prepared and to save human lives and to invest in adaptation options. Natural Hazards related to climate change are identified as one of the Grand Challenges in the Baltic Sea region. We here summarise existing knowledge of extreme events in the Baltic Sea region with the focus on past 200 years, as well as future climate scenarios. The events considered here are the major hydro-meteorological events in the region and include wind storms, extreme waves, high and low sea level, ice ridging, heavy precipitation, sea-effect snowfall, river floods, heat waves, ice seasons, and drought. We also address some ecological extremes and implications of extreme events for society (phytoplankton blooms, forest fires, coastal flooding, offshore infrastructures, and shipping). Significant knowledge gaps are identified, including the response of large scale atmospheric circulation to climate change, but also concerning specific events, for example, occurrences of marine heat waves and small-scale variability of precipitation. Suggestions for future research includes further development of high-resolution Earth System models, and the potential use of methodologies for data analysis (statistical methods and machine learning). With respect to expected impact of climate change, changes are expected for sea-level, extreme precipitation, heat waves and phytoplankton blooms (increase) and cold spells and severe ice winters (decrease). For some extremes (drying, river flooding and extreme waves) the change depends on the area and time period studies.

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Recent Change—Atmosphere

Cited by 13 publications

References 219 publications

Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses

Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses

German Bight storm activity, 1897–2018

Natural Hazards and Extreme Events in the Baltic Sea region

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