Recent Changes Implemented into the Global Forecast System at NMC

Kanamitsu, Masao; Alpert, Jordan C.; Campana, Kenneth A.; Caplan, Peter; Deaven, Dennis G.; Iredell, Mark; Katz, Bert; Pan, Hua-Lu; Sela, Joseph G.; White, Glenn H.

doi:10.1175/1520-0434(1991)006<0425:rciitg>2.0.co;2

Cited by 272 publications

(120 citation statements)

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“…The model has a complete suite of physical parametrizations, as described in Kanamitsu et al (1991), with recent updates detailed in Moorthi et al (2001). Additional updates to these parametrizations are described in Saha et al (2006).…”

Section: Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model and Boundary Condimentioning

confidence: 99%

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

Compo

Whitaker

Sardeshmukh

et al. 2011

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

3,077

2,652

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† The contribution of R. J. Allan was written in the course of his employment at the Met Office, UK, and is published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen's Printer for Scotland. ‡ The contributions of these authors were prepared as part of their official duties as US Federal Government employees.The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) project is an international effort to produce a comprehensive global atmospheric circulation dataset spanning the twentieth century, assimilating only surface pressure reports and using observed monthly sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distributions as boundary conditions. is similar to that of current three-day operational NWP forecasts. Intercomparisons over the second half-century of these surface-based reanalyses with other reanalyses that also make use of upper-air and satellite data are equally encouraging.It is anticipated that the 20CR dataset will be a valuable resource to the climate research community for both model validations and diagnostic studies. Some surprising results are already evident. For instance, the long-term trends of indices representing the North Atlantic Oscillation, the tropical Pacific Walker Circulation, and the Pacific-North American pattern are weak or non-existent over the full period of record. The long-term trends of zonally averaged precipitation minus evaporation also differ in character from those in climate model simulations of the twentieth century.

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Section: Global Numerical Weather Prediction Model and Boundary Condimentioning

confidence: 99%

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

Compo

Whitaker

Sardeshmukh

et al. 2011

Quart J Royal Meteoro Soc

3,077

2,652

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Firstly global models, e.g. the Global Forecast System (GFS) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the USA (NOAA) [5], which produce low space resolution forecasts of the entire globe. Secondly, mesoscale models, which produce forecasts with a space resolution of up to one square km in a specific region, and finally local models, with the highest space resolution.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterisation of Large Changes in Wind Power for the Day-Ahead Market Using a Fuzzy Logic Approach

et al. 2014

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Wind power has become one of the renewable resources with a major growth in the electricity market. However, due to its inherent variability, forecasting techniques are necessary for the optimum scheduling of the electric grid, specially during ramp events. These large changes in wind power may not be captured by wind power point forecasts even with very high resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. In this paper, a fuzzy approach for wind power ramp characterisation is presented. The main benefit of this technique is that it avoids the binary definition of ramp event, allowing to identify changes in power output that can potentially turn into ramp events when the total percentage of change to be considered a ramp event is not met. To study the application of this technique, wind power forecasts were obtained and their corresponding error estimated using Genetic Programming (GP) and Quantile Regression Forests. The error distributions were incorporated into the characterisation process, which according to the results, improve significantly the ramp capture. Results are presented

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“…GFS is a weather forecast global spectral model and is run operationally since 1991 at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, Kanamitsu, 1989;Kalnay et al, 1990;Kanamitsu et al, 1991). It is run four times a day at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC but for this work only the forecast initiated at 00 UTC and 3-hour forecast outputs for the first 36 hours with a horizontal resolution of 1 • of latitude × 1 • of longitude was considered.…”

Section: Gfs Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of a Spatial Verification Method to GFS Precipitation Forecasts

Bender¹,

Ynoue²

2014

Rev. Bras. Geof.

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ABSTRACT. This study aims to describe a spatial analysis of precipitation field with the MODE tool, which consists in comparing features converted from gridded forecast and observed precipitation values. This evaluation was performed daily from April 2010 to March 2011, for the 36-h GFS precipitation forecast started at 00 UTC over the state of São Paulo and neighborhood. Besides traditional verification measures, such as accuracy (A), critical success index (CSI), bias (BIAS), probability of detection (POD), and false alarm ratio (FAR); new verification measures are proposed, such as area ratio (AR), centroid distance (CD) and 50th and 90th percentiles ratio of intensity (PR50 and PR90). Better performance was attained during the rainy season. Part of the errors in the simulations was due to overestimation of the forecasted intensity and precipitation areas.Keywords: object-based verification, weather forecast, precipitation, MODE, São Paulo. RESUMO.Este estudo tem como objetivo descrever uma análise espacial do campo de precipitação com a ferramenta MODE, que consiste em converter valores de precipitação de grade do campo previsto e observado em objetos, que posteriormente serão comparados entre si. A avaliaçãoé realizada diariamente sobre o estado de São Paulo e vizinhança, para o período de abril de 2010 a março de 2011, para as simulações do modelo GFS iniciadasàs 00 UTC, na integração de 36 horas.Além da verificação através deíndices tradicionais, como probabilidade de acerto (PA),índice crítico de sucesso (ICS), viés (VIÉS), probabilidade de detecção (PD) e razão de falso alarme (RFA), novosíndices de avaliação são propostos, como razão deárea (RA), distância do centroide (DC) e razão dos percentis 50 e 90 de intensidade (RP50 e RP90). O melhor desempenho ocorreu para a estação chuvosa. Parte dos erros nas simulações foi devidoà superestimativa da intensidade e dá area de abrangência dos eventos de precipitação em relação ao observado.Palavras-chave: avaliação baseada em objetos, previsão do tempo, precipitação, MODE, São Paulo.

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Recent Changes Implemented into the Global Forecast System at NMC

Cited by 272 publications

References 0 publications

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

Characterisation of Large Changes in Wind Power for the Day-Ahead Market Using a Fuzzy Logic Approach

Application of a Spatial Verification Method to GFS Precipitation Forecasts

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