Recent Demographic Trends in the Major Italian Urban Agglomerations: The Role of Foreigners

2020

JPSS

A comprehensive analysis of local demographic structures by age allows a better understanding of complex processes of population redistribution across large metropolitan regions. Based on these premises, local population age structures were studied at the spatial scale of urban districts in Rome's metropolitan area (Italy) between 1971 and 2018. Results of this study indicate (i) a rapid suburbanization (1971-1991) consolidating distinct demographic structures in urban and rural areas, (ii) a less rapid disurbanization (1991-2011) with aging of suburban populations and (iii) a subsequent process of slow re-urbanization (2011-2018). Taken together, these phenomena have reduced the structural divide in urban (older) populations and suburban (younger) populations. Residential mobility contributed to a more balanced age structure during suburbanization and an increased urban-rural gap in the subsequent phases (disurbanization and re-urbanization). A refined analysis of long-term population dynamics in metropolitan regions reflects spatial outcomes and latent aspects of demographic transitions, shedding light on the debate over the future development of urban and rural societies in advanced economies.

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 96%

Beyond the Suburban-Urban Divide: Convergence in Age Structures in Metropolitan Rome, Italy

Egidi

2020

JPSS

“…This has caused internal migrations of the foreign population towards Northern Italy, attracted by greater job opportunities and better conditions of life, e.g., through the reunification of pre-existing families. These dynamics, in the last twenty years, have inverted the traditional fertility gap between Southern and Northern Italy, consolidating a sort of 'demographic marginality' of the South [78,79]. While these dynamics confirm the role of economic performances and geographical centrality in regional demography [20], they also indicate how a substantial rethinking of territorial gaps is necessary for economic development policies, which should impact 'demographic dividends' more effectively [80], trying to reverse the downward spiral toward population shrinkage, which is threatening the most peripheral regions of Mediterranean Europe.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

High-to-Low (Regional) Fertility Transitions in a Peripheral European Country: The Contribution of Exploratory Time Series Analysis

Rodrigo‐Comino

Egidi

et al. 2021

Data

Diachronic variations in demographic rates have frequently reflected social transformations and a (more or less evident) impact of sequential economic downturns. By assessing changes over time in Total Fertility Rate (TFR) at the regional scale in Italy, our study investigates the long-term transition (1952–2019) characteristic of Mediterranean fertility, showing a continuous decline of births since the late 1970s and marked disparities between high- and low-fertility regions along the latitude gradient. Together with a rapid decline in the country TFR, the spatiotemporal evolution of regional fertility in Italy—illustrated through an exploratory time series statistical approach—outlines the marked divide between (wealthier) Northern regions and (economically disadvantaged) Southern regions. Non-linear fertility trends and increasing spatial heterogeneity in more recent times indicate the role of individual behaviors leveraging a generalized decline in marriage and childbearing propensity. Assuming differential responses of regional fertility to changing socioeconomic contexts, these trends are more evident in Southern Italy than in Northern Italy. Reasons at the base of such fertility patterns were extensively discussed focusing—among others—on the distinctive contribution of internal and international migrations to regional fertility rates. Based on these findings, Southern Italy, an economically disadvantaged, peripheral region in Mediterranean Europe, is taken as a paradigmatic case of demographic shrinkage—whose causes and consequences can be generalized to wider contexts in (and outside) Europe.

“…In this regard, migration was acknowledged as a key driver of regional diversity in population dynamics (Castells-Quintana & Royuela, 2015;Cuadrado-Ciuraneta et al, 2017;Serra et al, 2014). In Italy, crisis' impact on job and housing markets was milder than Greece and, in part, Spain; however, evident changes in unemployment rates and a consequent decline in fertility, especially in more economically disadvantaged contexts, such as Southern Italy, were observed (Caltabiano & Dalla Zuanna, 2015;Cazzola et al, 2016;Strozza, Benassi, Ferrara, & Gallo, 2016;Salvati, Carlucci, & Venanzoni, 2017;Fiori, Graham, & Rinesi, 2018). In a comparison of precrisis and postcrisis population movements at the regional scale in both Europe and the United States, migration was observed to be an equilibrating force in the labour market.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bridging the divide: Demographic dynamics and urban–rural polarities during economic expansion and recession in Greece

Population Space and Place

2019

Demographic processes such as international migration, internal rural–urban movements, and short‐range residential mobility are increasingly driven by economic cycles. To assess how economic downturns have influenced demographic dynamics across regions in Greece—perhaps the European country most affected by the 2007 recession—the present study investigates spatial patterns of population increase and decline (2002–2017) in 51 prefectures, evaluating the contribution of natural balance (births minus deaths) and migration to total population growth during economic expansion (2002–2009) and recession (2010–2017). Population increased during economic expansion in semicentral regions with medium‐size urban centres, upper economic functions (university and international airport), and road infrastructures. Although natural balance was positive in almost all prefectures, migration contributed the most to population growth during 2002–2009. A generalised population decline was observed during recession, except in coastal areas specialised in tourism, the only regions still attracting migratory flows and maintaining a slightly positive natural balance. The largest urban areas (Athens, Salonika) experienced the highest rate of population decline, thanks to accelerated emigration and a moderately negative natural balance. Population dynamics during economic expansion contributed to increase a traditional density gap between urban and rural areas. Conversely, population dynamics during recession led to a spatial redistribution of population, reducing the gap between urban areas and rural, tourism‐specialised coastal districts. Evidence in our study supports a need for further investigation into the role of economic downturns in future population redistribution processes, specifically “shrinking” regions.