Recent ecological responses to climate change support predictions of high extinction risk

Abstract

Predicted effects of climate change include high extinction risk for many species, but confidence in these predictions is undermined by a perceived lack of empirical support. Many studies have now documented ecological responses to recent climate change, providing the opportunity to test whether the magnitude and nature of recent responses match predictions. Here, we perform a global and multitaxon metaanalysis to show that empirical evidence for the realized effects of climate change supports predictions of future extinction risk. We use International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria as a common scale to estimate extinction risks from a wide range of climate impacts, ecological responses, and methods of analysis, and we compare predictions with observations. Mean extinction probability across studies making predictions of the future effects of climate change was 7% by 2100 compared with 15% based on observed responses. After taking account of possible bias in the type of climate change impact analyzed and the parts of the world and taxa studied, there was less discrepancy between the two approaches: predictions suggested a mean extinction probability of 10% across taxa and regions, whereas empirical evidence gave a mean probability of 14%. As well as mean overall extinction probability, observations also supported predictions in terms of variability in extinction risk and the relative risk associated with broad taxonomic groups and geographic regions. These results suggest that predictions are robust to methodological assumptions and provide strong empirical support for the assertion that anthropogenic climate change is now a major threat to global biodiversity.anthropogenic warming | elevated temperature | extinction crisis | climate warming M any scientists argue that we are entering the sixth great mass extinction and that anthropogenic climate change is one of the major threats to global biodiversity (1-3). Comprehensive, multitaxon reviews suggest that 10-70% of plant and animal species assessed so far could be at increased risk of extinction from climate change (4) or that by 2050, climate-induced changes in habitat will commit 15-37% of species to extinction (1). Both these estimates are based on approaches that can be sensitive to ecological and methodological assumptions (5-8), and the latter study considers only geographical range shifts resulting from changes in temperature and rainfall (1). Many species are also expected to be adversely affected by changes in sea-level and ocean chemistry (9), and the impacts of climate change may include breakdowns in biological interactions as species respond individualistically to climate change (10), loss of habitat because of sea-level rise (11), and higher mortality because of increased ocean acidity (12). The spectrum of approaches used to predict ecological responses to climate change has also broadened in recent years, enabling more robust estimates of future changes to be made (13). Here, we use International Union for Conservation...

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