Recent observations on the epidemiology of plague in the United States.

Kartman, Leo; Goldenberg, Martin I.; Hubbert, William T.

doi:10.2105/ajph.56.9.1554

Cited by 22 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The magnitude of decrease in deaths was similar for most clinical forms; however, the proportion of pneumonic plague cases that were fatal (36%) remained ≈3-fold higher, and of septicemic plague, ≈2-fold higher (27%), than the proportion of bubonic plague cases that were fatal (13%). Notably, although there were few cases ( 6 ), 67% of pharyngeal plague case-patients died, regardless of availability of effective treatment. After the introduction of antibiotics, the overall mortality rate did not differ with patient age or race, but was higher for male patients than for female patients (19% versus 11%, respectively; Table 2).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although the medical and scientific literature has detailed case histories and epidemiologic findings of plague cases in the United States, most reports have been limited in geographic scope or time frame ( 4 – 6 , 10 – 21 ). We use data from all reported human plague cases in the United States during 1900–2012 to summarize and describe changes in the epidemiology of plague since its introduction.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Epidemiology of Human Plague in the United States, 1900–2012

Kugeler¹,

Staples²,

Hinckley³

et al. 2015

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Epidemiology of Human Plague in the United States, 1900–2012

Kugeler¹,

Staples²,

Hinckley³

et al. 2015

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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“…Both visiting tourists and resident animals may suffer as a result of vectorborne disease. Important zoonoses that are likely to be a risk to humans include plague, which occurred in a human YNP in 1959 (Kartman et al 1966), and relapsing fever, reported in YNP in the early 1990s (Smith 1992).…”

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confidence: 99%

Arthropod Vectors and Vector-Borne Bacterial Pathogens in Yosemite National Park

et al. 2011

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Ticks, fleas, and vector-borne pathogens were surveyed in diverse small mammals in Yosemite National Park, California, from 2005 to 2007. A total of 450 unique captures of small mammals was collected during a 3-yr period and yielded 16 species of fleas and 10 species of ticks, including known vectors of Anaplasma phagocytophilum and Borrelia burgdorferi and plague. Serology was performed for A. phagocytophilum, spotted fever group Rickettsia spp., B. burgdorferi, and Yersinia pestis. A. phagocytophilum exposure was identified in 12.1% of all wild small mammals tested, with seropositive animals in 10 species, notably Belding's ground squirrels (Spermophilus beldingi), jumping mice (Zapus princeps), and voles (Microtus sp.). Spotted fever group Rickettsia spp. exposure was detected in 13.9% of all small mammals tested, with seropositive animals in eight species. Additionally, 37.0% of rodents in five species tested were seropositive for B. burgdorferi. No individuals were seropositive for Y. pestis. No animals were polymerase chain reaction positive for any pathogen tested. These results provide baseline data for future research and prediction of emerging vector-borne disease in Yosemite National Park, as well as adding to the known ranges and host species for tick and fleas in California.

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“…wagneri and M. telchinum, and the Leptopsyllid flea P. hesperomys with the u matrix given in Equation 22. These species were chosen because they have been reported as likely reservoirs and are not reported to experience high mortality (and thus likely epidemic fade-out), but have been reported to be culture positive in plagueendemic areas in the absence of morbidity, which is a very unusual occurrence (Stoenner et al 1959, Marchette et al 1962, Kartman et al 1966. In a recent study at Chuchupate, these rodents also were reported as reservoirs, with three additional species (the dusky-footed woodrat, the Merriam's chipmunk, and the California ground squirrel), all considered to be ''susceptible,'' that is, not reservoirs (Davis et al 2002).…”

Section: Central Role Of the Host-vector Count Tablementioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Susceptible Infective Recovered Dynamics and Plague Persistence in California Rodent–Flea Communities

Foley

Foley²

2010

Vector-Borne and Zoonotic Diseases

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Plague persists as an enzootic in several very different rodent-flea communities around the world. In California, a diversity of rodent-flea communities maintains the disease, and a single-host reservoir seems unlikely. Logistic regression of plague presence on climate and topographic variables predicts plague in many localities where it is absent. Thus, a dynamic community-based analysis was needed. Deterministic Susceptible Infective Recovered (SIR) models were adapted for plague and analyzed with an eye for insights concerning disease persistence. An R simulation program, Plaguesirs, was developed incorporating multihost and multivector SIR dynamics, demographic and environmental stochasticity, density dependence, and seasonal variation in birth and death. Flea-rodent utilization matrices allowed us to get transmission rates as well as flea carrying capacities. Rodent densities allowed us to estimate host carrying capacities, while maximum birth rates were mainly approximated through an examination of litter phenology and demography. We ran a set of simulations to assess the role of community structure in maintaining plague in a simulated version of Chuchupate campground in Ventura County. Although the actual campground comprises 10 rodent and 19 flea species, we focused on a subset suspected to act as a reservoir community. This included the vole Microtus californicus, the deer mouse Peromyscus maniculatus, the Ceratophyllid fleas Aetheca wagneri and Malareus telchinum, and the Leptopsyllid flea Peromyscopsylla hesperomys. The dynamics of 21 subsets of this community were simulated for 20 years. Single-rodent communities showed much lower disease persistence than two-rodent communities. However, so long as Malareus was present, endemicity was enhanced; removal of the other two fleas slightly increased disease persistence. Two critical features improved disease persistence: (1) host breeding season heterogeneity and (2) host population augmentation (due to two similar host species instead of one). Voles are winter-spring breeders compared to the spring-summer deer mice. While host synchronicity may enhance epidemics, host asynchronicity favors endemics.

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Recent observations on the epidemiology of plague in the United States.

Cited by 22 publications

References 14 publications

Epidemiology of Human Plague in the United States, 1900–2012

Epidemiology of Human Plague in the United States, 1900–2012

Arthropod Vectors and Vector-Borne Bacterial Pathogens in Yosemite National Park

Modeling Susceptible Infective Recovered Dynamics and Plague Persistence in California Rodent–Flea Communities

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