Recent Observed Changes in Extreme High‐Temperature Events and Associated Meteorological Conditions over Africa

Iyakaremye, Vedaste; Zeng, Gang; Ullah, Irfan; Gahigi, Aimable; Mumo, Richard; Ayugi, Brian

doi:10.1002/joc.7485

Cited by 50 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…The warming climate in SA is expected to increase potential evapotranspiration (PET), causing a decrease in agricultural production [14,15]. Due to variations in precipitation and temperature, SA's hydro-meteorology has already been affected [16].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Changes in Drought Events over South Asia and Their Possible Linkages with Climatic and Dynamic Factors

Ullah

Ren

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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South Asia is home to one of the fastest-growing populations in Asia, and human activities are leaving indelible marks on the land surface. Yet the likelihood of successive observed droughts in South Asia (SA) and its four subregions (R-1: semi-arid, R-2: arid, R-3: subtropical wet, and R-4: tropical wet and dry) remains poorly understood. Using the state-of-the-art self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), we examined the impact of different natural ocean variability modes on the evolution, severity, and magnitude of observed droughts across the four subregions that have distinct precipitation seasonality and cover key breadbaskets and highly vulnerable populations. The study revealed that dryness had significantly increased in R-1, R-2, and R-4 during 1981–2020. Temporal analysis revealed an increase in drought intensity for R-1 and R-4 since the 2000s, while a mixed behavior was observed in R-2 and R-3. Moreover, most of the sub-regions witnessed a substantial upsurge in annual precipitation, but a significant decrease in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) during 1981–2020. The increase in precipitation and the decline in VPD partially contributed to a significant rise in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and a decrease in dryness. In contrast, a strong positive correlation was found between drought index and precipitation, and NDVI across R-1, R-2, and R-4, whereas temperature and VPD exhibited a negative correlation over these regions. No obvious link was detected with El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, or Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and drought evolution, as explored for certain regions of SA. The findings showed the possibility that the precipitation changes over these regions had an insignificant relationship with ENSO, IOD, and drought onset. Thus, the study results highlight the need for considering interactions within the longer climate system in describing observed drought risks rather than aiming at drivers from an individual perspective.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent Changes in Drought Events over South Asia and Their Possible Linkages with Climatic and Dynamic Factors

Ullah

Ren

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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“…For instance, Iyakaremye et al [ 45 ] concluded that by the mid of 21 st century, the population exposure is expected to increase by ~ 28% (25%) in comparison to the baseline duration under SSP5-8.5 (SSP2-4.5) in Africa. May parts of Africa has experienced intensified and more frequent hot days and nights recently which clearly indicating a shift in the African climate [ 46 ]. Projected results about precipitation suggested uncertainties over Pakistan [ 47 , 48 ], however, some studies suggested that precipitation has mixed trend (decreasing trend for some time periods and increasing trend for other time periods) over the northern Pakistan in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and spatio-temporal trend analysis of climate extremes in the homogeneous climatic zones of Pakistan during 1962-2019

Khan

Ali²,

Mayer

et al. 2022

PLoS ONE

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Climate extremes, such as heat waves, droughts, extreme rainfall can lead to harvest failures, flooding and consequently threaten the food security worldwide. Improving our understanding about climate extremes can mitigate the worst impacts of climate change and extremes. The objective here is to investigate the changes in climate and climate extremes by considering two time slices (i.e., 1962–1990 and 1991–2019) in all climate zones of Pakistan by utilizing observed data from 54 meteorological stations. Different statistical methods and techniques were applied on observed station data to assess changes in temperature, precipitation and spatio-temporal trends of climatic extremes over Pakistan from 1962 to 2019. The Mann-Kendal test demonstrated increasing precipitation (DJF) and decreasing maximum and minimum temperatures (JJA) at the meteorological stations located in the Karakoram region during 1962–1990. The decadal analysis, on the other hand, showed a decrease in precipitation during 1991–2019 and an increase in temperature (maximum and minimum) during 2010–2019, which is consistent with the recently observed slight mass loss of glaciers related to the Karakoram Anomaly. These changes are highly significant at 5% level of significance at most of the stations. In case of temperature extremes, summer days (SU25) increased except in zone 4, TX10p (cold days) decreased across the country during 1962–1990, except for zones 1 and 2. TX90p (warm days) increased between 1991–2019, with the exception of zone 5, and decreased during 1962–1990, with the exception of zones 2 and 5. The spatio-temporal trend of consecutive dry days (CDD) indicated a rising tendency from 1991 to 2019, with the exception of zone 4, which showed a decreasing trend. PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation), R10 (number of heavy precipitation days), R20 (number of very heavy precipitation days), and R25mm (very heavy precipitation days) increased (decreased) considerably in the North Pakistan during 1962–1990 (1991–2019). The findings of this study can help to address some of the sustainable development goals related climate action, hunger and environment. In addition, the findings can help in developing sustainable adaptation and mitigation strategies against climate change and extremes. As the climate and extremes conditions are not the uniform in all climate zone, therefore, it is suggested to the formers and agriculture department to harvest crops resilient to the climatic condition of each zone. Temperature has increasing trend in the northern Pakistan, therefore, the concerned stakeholders need to make rational plans for higher river flow/flood situation due to snow and glacier melt.

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“…With the increase of 1 °C in mean summer temperature can increase the river flow by 16–17% in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) and show the sensitivity of glaciers and snow melt in this region 15 . In recent studies researchers explored that in various parts of African countries and Pakistan, which are considered as climate change hotspots, anticipated changes in the heatwave frequency will affect the population 16 – 19 . Ullah et al 20 concluded that the exposure of the South Asian population to heatwaves is increasing in the future under the shared socioeconomic scenarios during the twenty-first century, however, the northern part of Pakistan is unaffected presently.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water availability and response of Tarbela Reservoir under the changing climate in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

Khan

2022

Sci Rep

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Agriculture is one of the major contributors to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Pakistan which relies on the availability of water. Hydropower contributes approximately 35% to the national electricity gid of Pakistan. Indus River is the main river of the Indus River System (IRS) which provides water for agriculture, hydropower and other purposes. The outputs of the Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) are used to force the University of British Columbia Watershed Model (UBCWM) in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), to investigate future water availability under the two IPCC emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Tarbela Reservoir which is the outlet of UIB is used as a measurement tool to assess water availability and response of the reservoir to climate change. The results show that maximum and minimum temperature are increasing in the future in comparison to the reference period. The largest increases in maximum temperature are projected for MAM (March–April–May) and JJA (June–July–August), with increases up to 2 °C in MAM and increases up to 6.4 °C in JJA under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, in the future. Minimum temperature has maximum increase (6.7 °C) in DJF (December–January–February) during 2071–2100 under RCP8.5. Precipitation shows a 5.1% decrease in DJF during 2011–2040 under RCP4.5. The statistics about water availability suggest that there is consistent increase in most of the months in the future, however, under the RCP4.5, there is decline in the river flow during 2071–2100 as compared to the 2041–2070. The findings of this study show that most of the time there will be more water available but in some months, there may be water scarcity under the RCP4.5, however, proper management and optimal utilization can reduce the water scarcity.

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Recent Observed Changes in Extreme High‐Temperature Events and Associated Meteorological Conditions over Africa

Cited by 50 publications

References 67 publications

Recent Changes in Drought Events over South Asia and Their Possible Linkages with Climatic and Dynamic Factors

Recent Changes in Drought Events over South Asia and Their Possible Linkages with Climatic and Dynamic Factors

Climate change and spatio-temporal trend analysis of climate extremes in the homogeneous climatic zones of Pakistan during 1962-2019

Water availability and response of Tarbela Reservoir under the changing climate in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

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