Recent weather fluctuations and agricultural yields: implications for climate change

D’Agostino, Anthony; Schlenker, Wolfram

doi:10.1111/agec.12315

Cited by 85 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…We incorporate several innovations to the commonly implemented yield-weather model (Butler & Huybers, 2013; 1 The min-max interpolation method was adapted from Xu et al (2013). Snyder (1985) proposed a sinusoidal interpolation method that was adapted by Schlenker and Roberts (2009) and D'Agostino and Schlenker (2016). A comparative analysis reveals that the outcomes of these two interpolation methods are similar and highly correlated (Tables S1-S2 and Figure S1).…”

Section: Yield-weather Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Arora

Feng

Anderson³

et al. 2020

Agricultural Economics

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Relative agricultural productivity shocks emerging from climate change will alter regional cropland use. Land allocations are sensitive to crop profits that in turn depend on yield effects induced by changes in climate and technology. We develop and apply an integrated framework to assess the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity and land use for the U.S. Northern Great Plains. Crop‐specific yield–weather models reveal crop comparative advantage due to differential yield impacts of weather across the region's major crops, that is, alfalfa, wheat, soybeans, and maize. We define crop profits as a function of the weather‐driven yields, which are then used to model land use allocation decisions. This ultimately allows us to simulate the impact of climate change under the RCP4.5 emissions scenario on land allocated to the region's major crops as well as to grass/pasture. Upon removing the trends effects in yields, climate change is projected to lower yields by 33–64% over 2031–2055 relative to 1981–2005, with soybean being the least and alfalfa the most affected crops. Yield projections applied to the land use model at present‐day input costs and output prices reveals that Dakotas’ grass acreage will increase by up to 23%, displacing croplands. Wheat acreage is expected to increase by up to 54% in select southeastern counties of North Dakota and South Dakota, where maize/soy acreage had increased by up to 58% during 1995–2016.

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Section: Yield-weather Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Arora

Feng

Anderson³

et al. 2020

Agricultural Economics

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“…Third, temperature binning assumes that heat impacts are additive and separable over the growing season. This assumption is also explicit in the degree days approach, an alternate methodology (D'Agostino and Schlenker, 2016). Despite this restrictive assumption, these two methodologies are nevertheless widespread in the literature (Schlenker and Roberts, 2009;Schlenker and Lobell, 2010;Lobell et al, 2011;Burke and Emerick, 2016;Tack et al, 2017).…”

Section: Study Limitationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India

Taraz

2018

World Development

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Projections suggest that the damages from climate change will be substantial for developing countries. Understanding the ability of households in these countries to adapt to climate change is critical in order to determine the magnitude of the potential damages. In this paper, I investigate the ability of farmers in India to adapt to higher temperatures. I use a methodology that exploits short-term weather fluctuations as well as spatial variation in long-run climate. Specifically, I estimate how damaging high temperatures are for districts that experience high temperatures more or less frequently. I find that the losses from high temperatures are lower in heat-prone districts, a result that is consistent with adaptation. However, while adaptation appears to be modestly effective for moderate levels of heat, my results suggest that adaptation to extreme heat is much more difficult. Extremely high temperatures do grave damage to crops, even in places that experience these temperature extremes regularly. The persistence of negative impacts of high temperatures, even in areas that experience high temperatures frequently, underscores the need for development policies that emphasize risk mitigation and explicitly account for climate-change-related risks.JEL Classification: O1, O3, Q1, Q5

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“…Previous research has shown that the likely impacts of climate change include damages to agricultural production (D'Agostino and Schlenker, ; Liu et al., ; Lobell et al., , ; Roberts et al., ; Rosenzweig et al., ; Schlenker and Roberts, ; Tack et al., ; Urban et al., ; Welch et al., ). Overall, the literature provides evidence of strong negative effects on crop yields across a wide range of locations, modeling approaches, and climate predictions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Warming temperatures will likely induce higher premium rates and government outlays for the U.S. crop insurance program

Tack

Coble

Barnett

2018

Agricultural Economics

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Likely climate change impacts include damages to agricultural production resulting from increased exposure to extreme heat. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding impacts on crop insurance programs. We utilize a panel of U.S. corn yield data to predict the effect of warming temperatures on the mean and variance of yields, as well as crop insurance premium rates and producer subsidies. While we focus on corn, we demonstrate that the subsidy impacts are likely to carry over to other major program crops. We find that warming decreases mean yields and increases yield risk on average, which results in higher premium rates. Under a 1°C warming scenario, we find that premium rates at the 90% coverage level will increase by 39% on average; however, there is considerable statistical uncertainty around this average as the 95% confidence interval spans from 22% to 61%. We also find evidence of extensive cross-sectional differences as the county-level rate impacts range from a 10% reduction to a 63% increase. Results indicate that exposure to extreme heat and changes in the coefficient of variation are large drivers of the impacts. Under the 1°C warming scenario, we find that annual subsidy payments for the crop insurance program could increase by as much as $1.5 billion, representing a 22% increase relative to current levels. This estimate increases to 3.7 billion (57%) under a 2°C warming scenario. Our results correspond to a very specific counterfactual: the marginal effect of warming temperatures under current technology, production, and crop insurance enrollments. These impacts are shown to be smaller than the forecasted impacts under a commonly used end-of-century general circulation model for even the most optimistic CO 2 emissions projection.JEL classifications: Q1, Q18, Q54

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Recent weather fluctuations and agricultural yields: implications for climate change

Cited by 85 publications

References 37 publications

Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Evidence of climate change impacts on crop comparative advantage and land use

Can farmers adapt to higher temperatures? Evidence from India

Warming temperatures will likely induce higher premium rates and government outlays for the U.S. crop insurance program

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