Reconciling regional nitrogen boundaries with global food security

Chang, Jinfeng; Havlík, Peter; Leclère, David; Vries, Wim de; Valin, Hugo; Депперманн, Андре; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Obersteiner, Michael

doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00366-x

Cited by 86 publications

(39 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…Among the measures in the policy reform, enhancing SNUpE improvements is imperative to reducing N surplus and mitigating N pollution, which is in line with the conclusions of Chang et al (2021) and Gu et al (2017). Our estimate of N surplus reduction by increasing SNUpE in China is 19.4 Mt N in 2050, comparable with the global level estimated (58.0 Mt) by , when considering China's share of global synthetic fertilizer consumption and the initial SNUpE setting in our model.…”

Section: Comparison With Other Studies and Uncertaintysupporting

confidence: 83%

“…2a). Our results show that with the current measures in the PAU scenario and further efforts in the AMB scenario, the nitrogen surplus can be kept well below the country's N planetary boundary-26 Mt (Chang et al 2021) (Fig. 5b), which indicates a safe operating boundary of human activities without damaging the functioning of resilience of the earth system, and is conducive to human welfare (Steffen et al 2015).…”

Section: Impacts On N Fertilizer Use N Surplus and N Pollutionmentioning

confidence: 76%

“…Handled by Sarah K. Jones, Alliance of Bioversity International and International Center for Tropical Agriculture, France. Chang et al 2021) and results in severe environmental problems, including soil acidification, water pollution (NO 3 -N, NH 4 -N), air pollution (NH 3 , NO X ), and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (N 2 O) (Galloway et al 2008;Guo et al 2010;Chen et al 2018;Yu et al 2019;Jin et al 2021b).…”

Section: Globally-consistent National Pathways Towards Sustainable Fo...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reforming China’s fertilizer policies: implications for nitrogen pollution reduction and food security

Wang

Lin

et al. 2022

Sustain Sci

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Reactive nitrogen (N) is a requisite nutrient for agricultural production, but results in greenhouse gas and air and water pollution. The environmental and economic impacts of N fertilizer use in China are particularly relevant, as China consumes the largest amount of N fertilizer in the world to meet its soaring food demand. Here, we use an agro-economic land system model (MAgPIE) in combination with a difference-in-differences econometric model to provide a forward-looking assessment of China’s fertilizer policies in terms of removing fertilizer manufacturing subsidies and implementing measures to improve agricultural nutrient management efficiency. Our model results indicate that enhancing soil N uptake efficiency and manure recycled to soil alongside fertilizer subsidy removal can largely reduce N fertilizer use and N losses and abate N pollution in the short and long term, while food security remains largely unaffected. Enhancing soil N uptake efficiency appears to be decisive to achieving China’s national strategic target of zero growth in N fertilizer use. This study also finds that improving agricultural nutrient management efficiency contributes to higher land productivity and less cropland expansion, with substantial benefits for the environment and food security.

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Section: Comparison With Other Studies and Uncertaintysupporting

confidence: 83%

Section: Impacts On N Fertilizer Use N Surplus and N Pollutionmentioning

confidence: 76%

Section: Globally-consistent National Pathways Towards Sustainable Fo...mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Reforming China’s fertilizer policies: implications for nitrogen pollution reduction and food security

Wang

Lin

et al. 2022

Sustain Sci

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“…What is needed to improve crop production, environmental quality, and predictions in circular systems? The complexity of a new reality and the societal ambitions to apply principles of circular economies in agriculture from local to regional scales (see Chang et al, 2021, for an example of N management and global food security) demand rethinking of predictive plant breeding. Crop improvements that enable circularity in agriculture will require reimagining objectives that include not only higher productivity and stability but also lower environmental footprints, sequestration of carbon to combat climate change, improved efficiency of water use, improved nutrition and more equitable access to food, and reduced food waste (Paustian et al, 2016;Bailey-Serres et al, 2019;Bossio et al 2020).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Crop Improvement for Circular Bioeconomy Systems

Messina¹,

Eeuwijk²,

Tang³

et al. 2022

Journal of the ASABE

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HighlightsWe describe and demonstrate a multidimensional framework to integrate environmental and genomic predictors to enable crop improvement for a circular bioeconomy.A model training procedure based on multiple phenotypes is shown to improve predictive skill.The decision set comprised of model outputs can inform selection for both productivity and circularity metrics.Abstract. Contemporary agricultural systems are poised to transition from linear to circular, adopting concepts of recycling, repurposing, and regeneration. This transition will require changing crop improvement objectives to consider the entire system, and thus provide solutions to improve complex systems for higher productivity, resource use efficiency, and environmental quality. The methods and approaches that underpinned the doubling of yields during the last century may no longer be fully adequate to target crop improvement for circular agricultural systems. Here we propose a multidimensional framework for prediction with outcomes useful to assess both crop performance traits and environmental sustainability of the designed agricultural systems. The study focuses on maize harvestable grain yield and total carbon production, water use, and use efficiency for yield and carbon. The framework builds on the crop growth model whole genome prediction system, which is enabled by advanced phenomics and the integration of symbolic and sub-symbolic artificial intelligence. We demonstrate the approach and prediction accuracy advantages over a standard statistical genomic prediction approach used to breed maize hybrids for yield, flowering time, and kernel set using a dataset comprised of 7004 hybrids, 103 breeding populations, and 62 environments resulting from six years of experimentation in maize drought breeding in the U.S. We propose this framework to motivate a dialogue for how to enable circularity in agriculture through prediction-based systems design. Keywords: Circular bioeconomy, Circular economy, Crop improvement, Crop models, Drought, Gene editing, Genomic prediction, Maize, Plant breeding.

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“…Besides, through the analysis and summary of recent relevant literature, we found that scholars mainly focus on the hot issues including the utilization efficiency of chemical fertilizer (active nitrogen, etc. ), urbanization expansion, greenhouse effects, and pay more attention to the combination of economic, social and ecological benefits of agricultural production to reduce the threat of land use change to food security [ 118 , 119 , 120 , 121 ].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Knowledge Mapping of Research on Land Use Change and Food Security: A Visual Analysis Using CiteSpace and VOSviewer

Cheng

Tang

Dong

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Many scholars have conducted in-depth research on the theme of land use change and food security, and formed fruitful research results, but there is a lack of quantitative analysis and comprehensive evaluation of research achievements. Therefore, based on the relevant literature on the theme of land use change and food security in the core collection of the Web of Science (WOS) database, this paper takes the advantage of CiteSpace and VOSviewer bibliometric software to draw the cooperative network and keyword cooccurrence map to analyze the research progress and frontier. The results reveal that: (1) The research started in 1999 and can be divided into three stages: initial research, rapid development, and a stable in-depth stage. This topic has increasingly become a research hotspot in the academic community. (2) The distribution of research institutions is concentrated and forms a small cluster, and the research networks between developed and developing countries have been established, and developed countries are in the core position, but the cooperation network is not prominent. (3) The research content is becoming increasingly organized and systematic, and the research hot topics are divided into seven aspects. (4) The research area of the subject covers multiple levels, such as global, national, and specific natural geographical regions, and has formed a research system of geographic information technology and satellite remote sensing technology. It also presents the trend of cross integration with economics, land management and soil science. In the future, theoretical innovation still needs to be strengthened, and we should strengthen the research on the impact of agricultural chemical fertilizers on food security and study the impact of urban expansion on land use change.

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Reconciling regional nitrogen boundaries with global food security

Cited by 86 publications

References 68 publications

Reforming China’s fertilizer policies: implications for nitrogen pollution reduction and food security

Reforming China’s fertilizer policies: implications for nitrogen pollution reduction and food security

Crop Improvement for Circular Bioeconomy Systems

Knowledge Mapping of Research on Land Use Change and Food Security: A Visual Analysis Using CiteSpace and VOSviewer

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