Reconsidering the “Palin Effect” in the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Abstract

“The ‘Palin Effect’ in the U.S. 2008 Presidential Election” analyzes the effect of Sarah Palin on presidential vote choice. Two of the substantive conclusions are (1) Palin cost McCain votes among independents and moderates, and (2) Palin had the largest effect on vote choice of any recent vice-presidential nominee. Our analysis shows that the data do not support these findings. We find that respondent evaluations of Palin have a positive effect on McCain vote choice, even among independents and moderates, and Palin’s effect on the election outcome is comparable with ten of the last fifteen vice-presidential nominees.

RETRACTED: Comments on “Reconsidering the ‘Palin Effect’”

“…However, I respectfully disagree with their conclusions. They argue that they challenge the finding in my original article that there was "a negative conditional effect of feelings toward Palin on the likelihood of a McCain vote among independents and moderates" (Burmilla and Ryan 2013). This is not what I argued.…”

“…The marginal effect entails a test of the hypothesis that compared with prior vice-presidential nominees, Palin produced a weaker (not stronger) effect on vote choice. This appears to be the basis of Burmilla and Ryan's (2013) criticism of my original article that "the positive coefficient on the Palin thermometer variable, undermines the conclusion that Palin cost McCain votes." Surely-and no matter the conditioning variable noted by Burmilla and Ryan-as Palin's feeling thermometer increases, the probability of a McCain vote will go up too.…”

“…This claim is based on noting that when confidence intervals are reported around the point estimates of the vice-presidential feeling thermometers variables, "the estimated Palin effect overlaps with 12 of the 15 [vice-presidential] nominees included in the model" (Burmilla and Ryan 2013). I concede that point to Burmilla and Ryan, and they are to be commended for noting that researchers should exercise some caution in making inferences from point estimates alone.…”

“…Naturally, inclusion of the McCain thermometer-and to a lesser extent the Obama feeling thermometer-will result in a decline in the size of the Palin thermometer coefficient given the shared variance between these variables. Burmilla and Ryan (2013) argue that the theoretically appropriate approach is to include all relevant control variables regardless of their level of multicollinearity." That would be an accurate assertion had my original model failed to include a control variable for candidate evaluations, specifically a candidate image variable.…”

(Un)Conventional Wisdom and Presidential Politics: The Myth of Convention Locations and Favorite-Son Vice Presidents

“…Pomper (2010, 59) reported that McCain won only 32% of the vote among those who expressed this concern. Palin’s perceived lack of qualifications and high name recognition may have cost McCain among independent voters (Knuckey 2012), although some scholars contend that the “Palin Effect” was negligible and consistent with other presidential races (Burmila and Ryan 2013). Even then, Obama’s large victory and McCain’s other liabilities cast doubt about whether he could have beaten Obama—even with a different running mate besides Palin.…”