Reconstruction and characterization of droughts and floods in the Hanjiang River Basin, China, 1426–2017

Zhang, Xiaodan; Ren, Guoyu; He, Bing; Mikami, Taisei; Matsumoto, Jun; Zhang, Panfeng; Yang, Guowei

doi:10.1007/s10584-023-03538-9

Cited by 1 publication

(9 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…In addition, there were significant drought and flood cycles of around 50 years in NC from the late 16th to the early 18th century. Though the same signal was not detected in the UH, but our previous studies indicated a multi‐decadal cycle of around 50 years in the middle and lower HRB (Zhang et al., 2023).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 61%

“…Although there are drought and flood cycles of around 70–80 years in both NC and the UH, there is a difference in timing, with those in NC more obvious in the last three centuries. However, from the mid‐16th century to the present, the middle and lower HRB experienced long‐term cycles with 80–100 years of drought and flood variability (Zhang et al., 2023).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In addition, our previous work (Zhang et al., 2023) found that historical drought and flood variability in the HRB during 1567–1990 showed relatively significant positive correlations with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on the interdecadal to multi‐decadal time scales. Although there is still lots of uncertainty about the impact of AMO on climate variability in East Asia (Li et al., 2009), Zhou et al.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…Moreover, we added the Yunxi site to provide a clearer spatial resolution of historical drought and flood variability in the UH. The data sources, reconstruction methods and limitations were described in detail in our previous study (Zhang et al, 2022(Zhang et al, , 2023.…”

Section: Data Sources and Reconstruction Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, Fang et al (2018) found that the UH and the Haihe River basin were at relatively high risk of experiencing successive years of co-drought, based on DFGs from 1470 to 2000 in Atlas (CMB, 1981). In this study, we used the DFGs which we reconstructed previously with a longer time scale and higher spatial resolution of the UH (Zhang et al, 2022(Zhang et al, , 2023 to systematically analyze the drought and flood variability in NC and the UH from 1470 to 2017 at interannual, interdecadal and multi-decadal time scales. We found that although the frequency of droughts in the UH increased significantly since the 19th century leading to a higher frequency of co-drought with NC, there were significant co-droughts on interannual, and in less extent on multi-decadal, time scales in NC and the UH over nearly 600 years, and therefore the correspondence may not be just influenced by climate change and variability in recent decades.…”

Section: Implications For Water Supply Of the Msnwd Projectmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Correspondence of Drought Occurrences at Multi‐Temporal Scales Between North China and Upper Hanjiang River

Zhang,

Ren,

Mikami

et al. 2023

JGR Atmospheres

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Using the drought and flood grades, the historical co‐drought probabilities of the water source area (i.e., the Upper Hanjiang River or UH) and the receiving area (i.e., North China or NC) of the Middle Route of the South‐to‐North Water Diversion project from 1470 to 2017 were analyzed. It was found that there is relatively high possibility for co‐droughts to occur in the UH and NC at interannual to multi‐decadal time scales. When extreme drought occurred in NC, there was a 52% probability that the UH was on the drier side and even a 40% probability of severe drought. During the three typical severe drought events that occurred mainly in NC (i.e., 1637–1643, 1877–1878, and 1997–2002), severe droughts also appeared in the UH, with 1877–1878 even more severe than in NC. Among the seven driest years of the study period in NC (i.e., 1640, 1641, 1832, 1920, 1965, 1968, and 1997), only 1832 was wet in the UH, and 1920 even experienced the same severe region‐wide drought as NC did. Furthermore, when severe consecutive droughts occurred in NC, there was at least a 66% probability that the UH was also experiencing a drought. In addition, there were obvious cycles of drought and flood variability of around 3–6 years, 10 years, 30 years, and 55–80 years in both the UH and NC. These findings are of importance to in‐depth understanding of the regional drought variability and its mechanism at varied temporal scales and the effective management of the world‐class hydro project.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 61%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%